PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000832

MQ-000832

Sassuolo v Milan · Serie A · Sun 11 Oct · 16:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · OVER · 50.1% · confidence 90

בוטל

Fair price: 2.00
Market price: 1.76
Probability gap: 3.6 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTCea5e5…e231

ea5e5d90650fade107d64a393d5ebae208d9b1a7904808d9f8fa99e4c770e231

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfdl5r00tkr68kbbj367rc",
 "edge": -0.036144,
 "fairOdds": 2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.76,
 "modelProbability": 0.500698,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000832",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC36f35…80aa

36f354cf9b057199cdb33a82ce48655bdec46a8eae74517df17d8db412b980aa

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfdl5r00tkr68kbbj367rc",
 "edge": -0.036144,
 "fairOdds": 2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.76,
 "modelProbability": 0.500698,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000832",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T14:02:05.896Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 50.1% · UNDER 49.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.76
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000832

OU25 · OVER · 51.5% · confidence 84 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.94
Market price: 1.76
Probability gap: 2.3 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC7cf57…8a8e

7cf57040b91a6d0c7417e6848aac96d550eb0aa85bc577606c2efcf998868a8e

{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbyfcp00ier6l8xe22uxwc",
 "edge": -0.02279,
 "fairOdds": 1.94,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.76,
 "modelProbability": 0.515268,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000832.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000832",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC4ebc9…02b2

4ebc980ae7084509ece0b900213ec71d7b7a6215fbfe0c2e8570fd46701402b2

{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbyfcp00ier6l8xe22uxwc",
 "edge": -0.02279,
 "fairOdds": 1.94,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.76,
 "modelProbability": 0.515268,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000832.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000832",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T14:02:05.896Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 51.5% · UNDER 48.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.76
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000832.v2

OU25 · OVER · 50.1% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.00
Market price: 1.76
Probability gap: 3.7 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTCd3626…fa98

d3626f88cbd0eb2fd31b6762809a3aaa1163c71649b405ffd5ca2d96847efa98

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzofrp800lqr6dajpr9dkb0",
 "edge": -0.037394,
 "fairOdds": 2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.76,
 "modelProbability": 0.500664,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000832.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000832.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTCd3c45…4455

d3c455d02e928b4cd3a4e2d535eae52e4b49ea92e7b40a172222266a63274455

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzofrp800lqr6dajpr9dkb0",
 "edge": -0.037394,
 "fairOdds": 2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.76,
 "modelProbability": 0.500664,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000832.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000832.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T14:02:05.896Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 50.1% · UNDER 49.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.76
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000832.v3

OU25 · UNDER · 50.4% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.99
Market price: 2.05
Probability gap: 4.3 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC90d46…b3d1

90d4687e3c8e5d78c88836269ad6897034aefb51a713ca30e0b4764741c5b3d1

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv07n8ut00e6r6w0tucpjx7p",
 "edge": 0.043212,
 "fairOdds": 1.99,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.05,
 "modelProbability": 0.503738,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000832.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000832.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC76727…d6d2

767272d16a09d5bc712007e5d4ee4594e817628b4aad448d334d8d1a40efd6d2

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv07n8ut00e6r6w0tucpjx7p",
 "edge": 0.043212,
 "fairOdds": 1.99,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.05,
 "modelProbability": 0.503738,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000832.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000832.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T14:02:05.896Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 49.6% · UNDER 50.4%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 00:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 00:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.05
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000832.v4

OU25 · OVER · 51.1% · confidence 84 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.96
Market price: 1.75
Probability gap: 2.9 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTC9ced1…0d56

9ced11f0f4d91a29053b2a0bc29c140e82446065693efa3adb8a81c16a150d56

{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv0r1zdx00f9r6a3pg2n3tdh",
 "edge": -0.028768,
 "fairOdds": 1.96,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.75,
 "modelProbability": 0.510706,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000832.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000832.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC4fa3c…3088

4fa3cbc70a484d10880ab7eddbbdf4649d93b17be7af082d9d9bb89dd40f3088

{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv0r1zdx00f9r6a3pg2n3tdh",
 "edge": -0.028768,
 "fairOdds": 1.96,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.75,
 "modelProbability": 0.510706,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000832.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000832.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T14:02:05.896Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 51.1% · UNDER 48.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.75
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000832.v5

OU25 · UNDER · 50.4% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.99
Market price: 2.04
Probability gap: 4.1 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC0d0ae…f738

0d0aec8819c95de91fd2c07225c05d132a8c681b81e9367b38772c8f642cf738

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13znob00jgr6j3pb7y7tna",
 "edge": 0.040604,
 "fairOdds": 1.99,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.04,
 "modelProbability": 0.503762,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000832.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000832.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTCf4581…1c1e

f45810a6768d8a82b690b35a051f00ff66b8b63a07b1048968373f7ffb251c1e

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13znob00jgr6j3pb7y7tna",
 "edge": 0.040604,
 "fairOdds": 1.99,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.04,
 "modelProbability": 0.503762,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000832.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000832.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T14:02:05.896Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 49.6% · UNDER 50.4%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 15:13Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 15:13Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.04
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000832.v6

OU25 · UNDER · 51.0% · confidence 90 · reason: Market price update

פגיעה

Fair price: 1.96
Market price: 2.16
Probability gap: 7.3 percentage points
Generated: Sun 11 Oct · 12:12 UTC
Published: Sun 11 Oct · 12:12 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 12:12 UTCba187…8ba3

ba187b0de01ccf5424ff2f8f5958bc77804db4a7a4e1b7c06fc2e31775108ba3

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3sayb7002wr6tmmjmeoje4",
 "edge": 0.072584,
 "fairOdds": 1.96,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T12:12:08.532Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.16,
 "modelProbability": 0.510084,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000832.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000832.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T12:12:08.532Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTCaf4cd…edfe

af4cd073fe65a12617e2c3d3810d03566b7afdf6bddb37c57184eba07d7cedfe

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3sayb7002wr6tmmjmeoje4",
 "edge": 0.072584,
 "fairOdds": 1.96,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T12:12:08.532Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.16,
 "modelProbability": 0.510084,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000832.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000832.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T14:02:05.896Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 49.0% · UNDER 51.0%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-11 12:12Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-11 12:12Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.16
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.