PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000837

MQ-000837

Troyes v Marseille · Ligue 1 · Sun 11 Oct · 18:45 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · AWAY · 37.7% · confidence 56

בוטל

Fair price: 2.66
Market price: 1.87
Probability gap: 12.8 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 21:13 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 21:13 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 21:13 UTCb4bb2…b42a

b4bb26bf78f95239ca46c74b81e26a91a09bd2ddfb13b637d26214d62e72b42a

{
 "confidenceScore": 56,
 "dataQualityScore": 39,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuylwz0e009or6wiqp9l7znp",
 "edge": -0.12768,
 "fairOdds": 2.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65knb0054jx04pdj3ousa",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T21:13:01.714Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.87,
 "modelProbability": 0.376575,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000837",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T21:13:01.714Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 17:02 UTCb4cd5…693f

b4cd54c7b61a540a772ade34dbb77f632dcc5969c20786b10c4c51e1e933693f

{
 "confidenceScore": 56,
 "dataQualityScore": 39,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuylwz0e009or6wiqp9l7znp",
 "edge": -0.12768,
 "fairOdds": 2.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65knb0054jx04pdj3ousa",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T21:13:01.714Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.87,
 "modelProbability": 0.376575,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000837",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T17:02:05.458Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 34.6% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 37.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 21:13Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 21:13Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.87
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000837

1X2 · HOME · 37.0% · confidence 56 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.70
Market price: 3.76
Probability gap: 11.8 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC16a3b…4c2e

16a3b34f504c293dfb58b5ef91fe37d940d1dc9bbb4a54ef9c8526b5a6eb4c2e

{
 "confidenceScore": 56,
 "dataQualityScore": 39,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv07ng4v00far6w0ktv53l2a",
 "edge": 0.118352,
 "fairOdds": 2.7,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65knb0054jx04pdj3ousa",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.76,
 "modelProbability": 0.370493,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000837.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000837",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 17:02 UTC7323f…7ac5

7323f89b59d2ecb19f30d41d001536e47052e3e8659cf3d23f0c7b50a1827ac5

{
 "confidenceScore": 56,
 "dataQualityScore": 39,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv07ng4v00far6w0ktv53l2a",
 "edge": 0.118352,
 "fairOdds": 2.7,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65knb0054jx04pdj3ousa",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.76,
 "modelProbability": 0.370493,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000837.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000837",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T17:02:05.458Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 37.0% · DRAW 27.2% · AWAY 35.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 00:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 00:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 3.76
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000837.v2

1X2 · HOME · 38.2% · confidence 56 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.62
Market price: 3.75
Probability gap: 12.9 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC7c50e…0a48

7c50ea678b16c8f1d52ac68af8b694b1c387d672aee2198d9f98233f9beb0a48

{
 "confidenceScore": 56,
 "dataQualityScore": 39,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1gvrdh0093r6ua7ormoy2u",
 "edge": 0.129371,
 "fairOdds": 2.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65knb0054jx04pdj3ousa",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.75,
 "modelProbability": 0.382014,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000837.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000837.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 17:02 UTC47f89…e7d3

47f89afd02831702351ceab98f81693ffd3e5aaf2c36f95290c7ba592afae7d3

{
 "confidenceScore": 56,
 "dataQualityScore": 39,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1gvrdh0093r6ua7ormoy2u",
 "edge": 0.129371,
 "fairOdds": 2.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65knb0054jx04pdj3ousa",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.75,
 "modelProbability": 0.382014,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000837.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000837.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T17:02:05.458Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 38.2% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 33.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 21:15Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 21:15Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 3.75
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000837.v3

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 54 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.51
Market price: 3.75
Probability gap: 14.5 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 00:09 UTC0b86a…81d7

0b86a1b3e511799c466ca6657872166a57cf7bf6b43b30dbed2a8afc3ad181d7

{
 "confidenceScore": 54,
 "dataQualityScore": 39,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1n3z8o00akr6f0559wllpk",
 "edge": 0.14525,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65knb0054jx04pdj3ousa",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T00:09:26.631Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.75,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000837.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000837.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T00:09:26.631Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 17:02 UTC9f823…4c81

9f8230859d18e4b7cf05eb615e491be0dce940d8f7e0478bb1a8d50f20b64c81

{
 "confidenceScore": 54,
 "dataQualityScore": 39,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1n3z8o00akr6f0559wllpk",
 "edge": 0.14525,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65knb0054jx04pdj3ousa",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T00:09:26.631Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.75,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000837.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000837.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T17:02:05.458Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 00:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 00:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 3.75
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000837.v4

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 55 · reason: Market price update

החטאה

Fair price: 2.51
Market price: 3.44
Probability gap: 12.2 percentage points
Generated: Sun 11 Oct · 12:12 UTC
Published: Sun 11 Oct · 12:12 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 12:12 UTCa0ca4…9e37

a0ca4f2155cb1b1ae31cc362d8e39415e9b046bb2fbddb5c1d9ad3331d109e37

{
 "confidenceScore": 55,
 "dataQualityScore": 39,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3sbfm6005br6tmvvqniafp",
 "edge": 0.121731,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65knb0054jx04pdj3ousa",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T12:12:08.532Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.44,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000837.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000837.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T12:12:08.532Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 17:02 UTC1e2a2…6168

1e2a2b63c13ef8a970835b03e61d8c22820e6719cabaf9802c912e282b8c6168

{
 "confidenceScore": 55,
 "dataQualityScore": 39,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3sbfm6005br6tmvvqniafp",
 "edge": 0.121731,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65knb0054jx04pdj3ousa",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T12:12:08.532Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.44,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000837.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000837.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T17:02:05.458Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-11 12:12Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-11 12:12Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 3.44
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.