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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000845

MQ-000845

Torino v Udinese · Serie A · Mon 12 Oct · 18:45 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 38.2% · confidence 92
בוטל
Fair price
2.62
Market price
2.34
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
2.4 percentage points
Generated
Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Published
Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Locked
Mon 12 Oct · 16:59 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC71489…b9ed
714896f264ed0ae7fca9cde25fc5fea3b78828035fc568071cbcba5a955bb9ed
{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01fv0700ksr60xmallc8ss",
 "edge": -0.024068,
 "fairOdds": 2.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuuujby202g8k104e5fnqyoy",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.34,
 "modelProbability": 0.382014,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000845",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordMon 12 Oct · 16:59 UTCaca8f…4bf2
aca8f953ea76420855ef9076605fc111494cae2098b3187d8bde7d43c8204bf2
{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01fv0700ksr60xmallc8ss",
 "edge": -0.024068,
 "fairOdds": 2.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuuujby202g8k104e5fnqyoy",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.34,
 "modelProbability": 0.382014,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000845",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-12T16:59:14.403Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 38.2% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 33.7%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-08 21:14Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-08 21:14Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.34
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000845

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 91 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.51
Market price
2.34
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
0.7 percentage points
Generated
Sat 10 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Published
Sat 10 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Locked
Mon 12 Oct · 16:59 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 00:09 UTCd8d1b…d92f
d8d1ba45c179797305e359ff801a1eca6e737ac055e3d553fe6db755c7dad92f
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1n4da600c1r6f0ts9ir9lc",
 "edge": -0.007441,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuuujby202g8k104e5fnqyoy",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T00:09:26.631Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.34,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000845.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000845",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T00:09:26.631Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordMon 12 Oct · 16:59 UTC9d543…2a37
9d543f5f3709e835a1df9176c5e227821b18a5f72650e75b54acb023a3a62a37
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1n4da600c1r6f0ts9ir9lc",
 "edge": -0.007441,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuuujby202g8k104e5fnqyoy",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T00:09:26.631Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.34,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000845.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000845",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-12T16:59:14.403Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-10 00:09Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-10 00:09Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.34
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000845.v2

1X2 · HOME · 36.1% · confidence 76 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.77
Market price
2.34
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
4.5 percentage points
Generated
Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published
Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked
Mon 12 Oct · 16:59 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC74dc4…60ab
74dc45f6428745c17705c88109feac2e903263d91394b954095e9467ae8b60ab
{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26if4100nar65xu9wb5pi0",
 "edge": -0.044504,
 "fairOdds": 2.77,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuuujby202g8k104e5fnqyoy",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.34,
 "modelProbability": 0.36083,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000845.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000845.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordMon 12 Oct · 16:59 UTC5e959…e8a9
5e95993cd5bb3dcba5510d60efda7f80e633fd55cc6fae8d23d753a96164e8a9
{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26if4100nar65xu9wb5pi0",
 "edge": -0.044504,
 "fairOdds": 2.77,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuuujby202g8k104e5fnqyoy",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.34,
 "modelProbability": 0.36083,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000845.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000845.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-12T16:59:14.403Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 36.1% · DRAW 29.0% · AWAY 34.9%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-10 09:11Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-10 09:11Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.34
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000845.v3

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 91 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.51
Market price
2.34
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
0.8 percentage points
Generated
Sat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC
Published
Sat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC
Locked
Mon 12 Oct · 16:59 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTCc8a99…af9d
c8a99e169cbb1b0ffa486dd8c64daa3cf55eb2fda22437e5c7eb6e4ba01faf9d
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2w72ve0069r6ledd47luc8",
 "edge": -0.008198,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuuujby202g8k104e5fnqyoy",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.34,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000845.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000845.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordMon 12 Oct · 16:59 UTC86d9f…f44a
86d9f40ad887a401ae94259b7b811d3dcc869011c72bffd7aa7d13679363f44a
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2w72ve0069r6ledd47luc8",
 "edge": -0.008198,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuuujby202g8k104e5fnqyoy",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.34,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000845.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000845.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-12T16:59:14.403Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-10 21:12Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-10 21:12Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.34
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000845.v4

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 95 · reason: Market price update
פגיעה
Fair price
2.51
Market price
2.50
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1.8 percentage points
Generated
Mon 12 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Published
Mon 12 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Locked
Mon 12 Oct · 18:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 12 Oct · 18:09 UTCac5a3…9090
ac5a3121c0c382fb760429749d5dff4d2055678fb890356175a7a75059e49090
{
 "confidenceScore": 95,
 "dataQualityScore": 97,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv5kgjcj0002r65uuy2rmztc",
 "edge": 0.017932,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuuujby202g8k104e5fnqyoy",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-12T18:09:09.840Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000845.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000845.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-12T18:09:09.840Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordMon 12 Oct · 18:32 UTC7427a…c09f
7427a6ba4256854f71bf5c92ca0d646fab456614e452a73b9319f02b03f5c09f
{
 "confidenceScore": 95,
 "dataQualityScore": 97,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv5kgjcj0002r65uuy2rmztc",
 "edge": 0.017932,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuuujby202g8k104e5fnqyoy",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-12T18:09:09.840Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000845.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000845.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-12T18:32:01.578Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-12 18:09Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-12 18:09Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H0_1
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.50
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.