MQ-000848
Coventry v Newcastle · Premier League · Mon 12 Oct · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.09
- Market price
- 2.09
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
- Published
- Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 12 Oct · 16:59 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTCe8d14…3da6
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv01g0dz00mgr60xmb5ynmwz",
"edge": 0.023551,
"fairOdds": 2.09,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuuuj9rq02esk104tj3mg3o4",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.09,
"modelProbability": 0.478277,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000848",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordMon 12 Oct · 16:59 UTC25b76…abbc
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv01g0dz00mgr60xmb5ynmwz",
"edge": 0.023551,
"fairOdds": 2.09,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuuuj9rq02esk104tj3mg3o4",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.09,
"modelProbability": 0.478277,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000848",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-12T16:59:14.403Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 25.7% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 47.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-08 21:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-08 21:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.09
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000848
- Fair price
- 2.09
- Market price
- 2.19
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 4.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 11 Oct · 12:12 UTC
- Published
- Sun 11 Oct · 12:12 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 12 Oct · 16:59 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 12:12 UTCd7efa…fe31
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv3sc2lz006yr6tmth6podx7",
"edge": 0.044488,
"fairOdds": 2.09,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuuuj9rq02esk104tj3mg3o4",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-11T12:12:08.532Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.19,
"modelProbability": 0.478277,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000848.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000848",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T12:12:08.532Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordMon 12 Oct · 16:59 UTC95b8c…58ef
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv3sc2lz006yr6tmth6podx7",
"edge": 0.044488,
"fairOdds": 2.09,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuuuj9rq02esk104tj3mg3o4",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-11T12:12:08.532Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.19,
"modelProbability": 0.478277,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000848.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000848",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-12T16:59:14.403Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 25.7% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 47.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-11 12:12Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-11 12:12Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.19
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000848.v2
- Fair price
- 2.09
- Market price
- 2.09
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2.1 percentage points
- Generated
- Mon 12 Oct · 18:09 UTC
- Published
- Mon 12 Oct · 18:09 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 12 Oct · 18:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 12 Oct · 18:09 UTC1d582…59f8
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 66,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv5kgqwk001ar65uxp6ir8jy",
"edge": 0.020962,
"fairOdds": 2.09,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuuuj9rq02esk104tj3mg3o4",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-12T18:09:09.840Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.09,
"modelProbability": 0.478277,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000848.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000848.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-12T18:09:09.840Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordMon 12 Oct · 18:32 UTC4371c…09fc
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 66,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv5kgqwk001ar65uxp6ir8jy",
"edge": 0.020962,
"fairOdds": 2.09,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuuuj9rq02esk104tj3mg3o4",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-12T18:09:09.840Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.09,
"modelProbability": 0.478277,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000848.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000848.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-12T18:32:01.578Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 25.7% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 47.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-12 18:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-12 18:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H0_1
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.09
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.