PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000857
MQ-000857
Ath Madrid v Man United · UEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
1X2 · HOME · 50.6% · confidence 88
- Fair price
- 1.98
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Fri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC
- Published
- Fri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC1c6b2…abaa
1c6b2f891565b5b361ef3f637263bcb07d8c60ac8dc5b469cf804207c054abaa
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv1gwq9200dlr6uabqw24efr",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.98,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3nv02hwl504trd8z1g9",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.506108,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000857",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC9aa1b…f557
9aa1b220d799c718b3ba2a50563db87773ad4af3c13be8183fa8ba703594f557
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv1gwq9200dlr6uabqw24efr",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.98,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3nv02hwl504trd8z1g9",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.506108,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000857",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 50.6% · DRAW 24.5% · AWAY 24.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-09 21:15Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-09 21:15Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000857
1X2 · HOME · 53.6% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 1.87
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sat 10 Oct · 15:14 UTC
- Published
- Sat 10 Oct · 15:14 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 15:14 UTC64239…067b
642398e0dd1932735462f8c5a47d10ce165670e4e2845d1389fc9533bdc1067b
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv2jgx0t00bdr6xibzotmn2n",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.87,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3nv02hwl504trd8z1g9",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T15:14:32.307Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.535537,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000857.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000857",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T15:14:32.307Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTCa74ef…50f6
a74efce048a1a63b03975bfd995d9ffe90a7a51d581f60186c218693a82a50f6
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv2jgx0t00bdr6xibzotmn2n",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.87,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3nv02hwl504trd8z1g9",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T15:14:32.307Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.535537,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000857.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000857",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 53.6% · DRAW 25.9% · AWAY 20.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-10 15:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-10 15:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000857.v2
1X2 · HOME · 56.0% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 1.79
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC
- Published
- Sat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC43391…d33f
43391803846200604112e9df806a047be89c72437a2c89179189286cf737d33f
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv2w7u1k0096r6ledzfqfuvf",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.79,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3nv02hwl504trd8z1g9",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.560081,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000857.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000857.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTCe6692…75c4
e66925023a81ddfba695c014f72e15bf43f28939aba37dfe0847de79ae9575c4
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv2w7u1k0096r6ledzfqfuvf",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.79,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3nv02hwl504trd8z1g9",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.560081,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000857.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000857.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 56.0% · DRAW 24.5% · AWAY 19.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-10 21:12Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-10 21:12Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 4 · previous MQ-000857.v3
1X2 · HOME · 56.0% · confidence 93 · reason: Market price update
- Fair price
- 1.79
- Market price
- 1.91
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 7 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 11 Oct · 21:13 UTC
- Published
- Sun 11 Oct · 21:13 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 21:13 UTC56c06…c786
56c066e43c2646dd94dc889527576d3397542d87e1b612a83f2bfa453d0fc786
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv4bmvhc003fr6f9s4coktvw",
"edge": 0.069858,
"fairOdds": 1.79,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3nv02hwl504trd8z1g9",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:41.141Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.91,
"modelProbability": 0.560081,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000857.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000857.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:41.141Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTCa8d31…b183
a8d31622d6874124e64cf14129d4b6780884a537d7a5163867355359faf1b183
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv4bmvhc003fr6f9s4coktvw",
"edge": 0.069858,
"fairOdds": 1.79,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3nv02hwl504trd8z1g9",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:41.141Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.91,
"modelProbability": 0.560081,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000857.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000857.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 56.0% · DRAW 24.5% · AWAY 19.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-11 21:13Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-11 21:13Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.91
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 5 · previous MQ-000857.v4
1X2 · HOME · 58.3% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 1.71
- Market price
- 1.91
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 8.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 13 Oct · 00:08 UTC
- Published
- Tue 13 Oct · 00:08 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 13 Oct · 00:08 UTCc5946…0755
c5946e955c1c1a507cec6a3d8f03e04ac492463a4e6bbeee02725f35a1610755
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv5xbj5e000wr6tvxehp7cfp",
"edge": 0.087843,
"fairOdds": 1.71,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3nv02hwl504trd8z1g9",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-13T00:08:55.345Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.91,
"modelProbability": 0.583219,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000857.v5",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000857.v4",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-13T00:08:55.345Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTCa6ae3…8fe3
a6ae3beaf0dadfa43b24f383a723850d7447a5ffd903443f2fb2058aeb1e8fe3
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv5xbj5e000wr6tvxehp7cfp",
"edge": 0.087843,
"fairOdds": 1.71,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3nv02hwl504trd8z1g9",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-13T00:08:55.345Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.91,
"modelProbability": 0.583219,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000857.v5",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000857.v4",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 58.3% · DRAW 25.1% · AWAY 16.6%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-13 00:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-13 00:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H12_24
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.91
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.