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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000860

MQ-000860

Arsenal v Lille · UEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct · 19:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 68.9% · confidence 88
בוטל
Fair price
1.45
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Fri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC
Published
Fri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC
Locked
Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC8fec5…6e8a
8fec588c4f6501741fd22a69df3e3330017e4c8a1bd49fd9740ae142bb316e8a
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1gwxmc00fir6ua709jv0wn",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe3qs02i2l504mhykzj5s",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.689202,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000860",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC5a35d…549f
5a35deb14caa305b3137434192dd221cd6891646089d34e86c4a696a2bb7549f
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1gwxmc00fir6ua709jv0wn",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe3qs02i2l504mhykzj5s",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.689202,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000860",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 68.9% · DRAW 21.5% · AWAY 9.6%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-09 21:15Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-09 21:15Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000860

1X2 · HOME · 69.9% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.43
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC
Published
Sat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC
Locked
Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTCbe3a6…e69e
be3a6adeb89e755fafef1b924b1b4fa83c598a7d986ce2b4b28e9b32bb20e69e
{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2w7yxz00aar6le21dheii8",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe3qs02i2l504mhykzj5s",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.699462,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000860.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000860",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC030fd…b3da
030fd9f05c8a013e9b776d7451ac328bfcdd3c0f8a8b6c12490425f8bd50b3da
{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2w7yxz00aar6le21dheii8",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe3qs02i2l504mhykzj5s",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.699462,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000860.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000860",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 69.9% · DRAW 20.8% · AWAY 9.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-10 21:12Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-10 21:12Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000860.v2

1X2 · HOME · 69.9% · confidence 93 · reason: Market price update
בוטל
Fair price
1.43
Market price
1.22
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
6.7 percentage points
Generated
Sun 11 Oct · 21:13 UTC
Published
Sun 11 Oct · 21:13 UTC
Locked
Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 21:13 UTCddf68…a193
ddf68eb17a9f94b1d49d86b2bc9204e30a4691f7674db7f0a4c6dbd0ead1a193
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv4bn03d004nr6f97aqw9p22",
 "edge": -0.066822,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe3qs02i2l504mhykzj5s",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:41.141Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.22,
 "modelProbability": 0.699462,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000860.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000860.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:41.141Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTCed2bc…3266
ed2bc55e0ccae6fc923189cea2b7f52a16e72515329880bf99a2855c33e83266
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv4bn03d004nr6f97aqw9p22",
 "edge": -0.066822,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe3qs02i2l504mhykzj5s",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:41.141Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.22,
 "modelProbability": 0.699462,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000860.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000860.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 69.9% · DRAW 20.8% · AWAY 9.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-11 21:13Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-11 21:13Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.22
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000860.v3

1X2 · HOME · 69.9% · confidence 93 · reason: Market price update
פגיעה
Fair price
1.43
Market price
1.22
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
8.9 percentage points
Generated
Tue 13 Oct · 09:10 UTC
Published
Tue 13 Oct · 09:10 UTC
Locked
Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 13 Oct · 09:10 UTC43b20…773e
43b209a8fb9d3291dabb7039929896bf64a4be1b89acb445acfd5354a74d773e
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv6gomtb001lr69pub0vswih",
 "edge": -0.0891,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe3qs02i2l504mhykzj5s",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-13T09:10:52.486Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.22,
 "modelProbability": 0.699462,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000860.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000860.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T09:10:52.486Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTCe629d…9601
e629dad0b9da40b88aa1f3a3fcbba0de3eb194eaebcb9cedd7fd4f0aff1e9601
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv6gomtb001lr69pub0vswih",
 "edge": -0.0891,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe3qs02i2l504mhykzj5s",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-13T09:10:52.486Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.22,
 "modelProbability": 0.699462,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000860.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000860.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 69.9% · DRAW 20.8% · AWAY 9.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-13 09:10Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-13 09:10Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.22
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.