PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000861
MQ-000861
Arsenal v Lille · UEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
OU25 · OVER · 55.4% · confidence 88
- Fair price
- 1.81
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Fri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC
- Published
- Fri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTCb8b05…242a
b8b0522801a20444cff30544b8c3cb1a010c3229804768cb97ad63c83bf8242a
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv1gwxmc00fir6ua709jv0wn",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.81,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3qs02i2l504mhykzj5s",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.553646,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000861",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTCa6f38…bf67
a6f383a9282d334f78a376febb1a2cfa1b90c7fb47e3438cab8b1dfaa693bf67
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv1gwxmc00fir6ua709jv0wn",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.81,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3qs02i2l504mhykzj5s",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.553646,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000861",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 55.4% · UNDER 44.6%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-09 21:15Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-09 21:15Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000861
OU25 · OVER · 56.7% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 1.76
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
- Published
- Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC4be60…85e0
4be608273200099de76a3c3c14eded3ce49d2d0b3e5ba4ef40a5f2a5094985e0
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv26iz3g00pur65xaxecnmjw",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.76,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3qs02i2l504mhykzj5s",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.567111,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000861.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000861",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC2cee9…4584
2cee9def8972ada6fa78ee2af4379c0d674532f5d8bce229011c6e648a024584
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv26iz3g00pur65xaxecnmjw",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.76,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3qs02i2l504mhykzj5s",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.567111,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000861.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000861",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 56.7% · UNDER 43.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-10 09:11Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-10 09:11Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000861.v2
OU25 · OVER · 55.4% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 1.81
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC
- Published
- Sat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC8466f…1504
8466fad44e0ab19fcd98698348208632060219aaf50aed7f6bb813b88e311504
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv2cx37700gqr6uqt5k8dn2k",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.81,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3qs02i2l504mhykzj5s",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.553866,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000861.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000861.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC40b87…fa8d
40b878d2768f61ac375a5e1cafc98bc9d568b35a68b76524e9246afdd115fa8d
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv2cx37700gqr6uqt5k8dn2k",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.81,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3qs02i2l504mhykzj5s",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.553866,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000861.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000861.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 55.4% · UNDER 44.6%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-10 12:10Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-10 12:10Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 4 · previous MQ-000861.v3
OU25 · OVER · 54.4% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 1.84
- Market price
- 1.57
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 5.9 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 11 Oct · 21:13 UTC
- Published
- Sun 11 Oct · 21:13 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 21:13 UTC19c66…d83a
19c66e18a39165236b0bb9b776e78492ead996827e08a3cff8f6a5ac1651d83a
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv4bn03d004nr6f97aqw9p22",
"edge": -0.058854,
"fairOdds": 1.84,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3qs02i2l504mhykzj5s",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:41.141Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.57,
"modelProbability": 0.543678,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000861.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000861.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:41.141Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC5ae7d…288f
5ae7d821140df28a8bc8f46284c797490da1e178158f1848ad4472796790288f
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv4bn03d004nr6f97aqw9p22",
"edge": -0.058854,
"fairOdds": 1.84,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3qs02i2l504mhykzj5s",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:41.141Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.57,
"modelProbability": 0.543678,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000861.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000861.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 54.4% · UNDER 45.6%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-11 21:13Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-11 21:13Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.57
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 5 · previous MQ-000861.v4
OU25 · OVER · 54.6% · confidence 93 · reason: Market price update
- Fair price
- 1.83
- Market price
- 1.50
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 9 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 13 Oct · 15:15 UTC
- Published
- Tue 13 Oct · 15:15 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 13 Oct · 15:15 UTCfa78d…44e7
fa78d0a0b4f23333801b496275c14ed08eef02a3e1f2a80eb9bbb8fbc7a144e7
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv6tp25n001nr682fnnexf1h",
"edge": -0.089999,
"fairOdds": 1.83,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3qs02i2l504mhykzj5s",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-13T15:15:08.506Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.5,
"modelProbability": 0.545923,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000861.v5",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000861.v4",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-13T15:15:08.506Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC6be9a…e42f
6be9aa58b5d77bd490730c1bdedda277010888cc3f3f93789b8e81986862e42f
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv6tp25n001nr682fnnexf1h",
"edge": -0.089999,
"fairOdds": 1.83,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe3qs02i2l504mhykzj5s",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-13T15:15:08.506Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.5,
"modelProbability": 0.545923,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000861.v5",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000861.v4",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 54.6% · UNDER 45.4%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-13 15:15Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-13 15:15Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.50
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.