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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000863

MQ-000863

RB Leipzig v PSV · UEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct · 19:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 70.8% · confidence 64
בוטל
Fair price
1.41
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Fri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC
Published
Fri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC
Locked
Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC90899…10ff
908997fef095ef90f822ce59c3ce160f1e58f336d2f86219db825281fab010ff
{
 "confidenceScore": 64,
 "dataQualityScore": 6,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1gx49f00hlr6uafh9oy7ar",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.41,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe3xb02ifl504stu9cb27",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.707797,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000863",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC20292…6e16
20292b7b89bd2a88093547c9dc7e45903f8489336243d647453a25efc06b6e16
{
 "confidenceScore": 64,
 "dataQualityScore": 6,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1gx49f00hlr6uafh9oy7ar",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.41,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe3xb02ifl504stu9cb27",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.707797,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000863",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 70.8% · DRAW 19.9% · AWAY 9.4%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-09 21:15Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-09 21:15Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000863

1X2 · HOME · 73.3% · confidence 66 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.36
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC
Published
Sat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC
Locked
Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTCe458c…c2c9
e458cb5b916650969dfc65d4295bed74124b7ed912983fa228d8830c1f8ec2c9
{
 "confidenceScore": 66,
 "dataQualityScore": 6,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2w83te00bir6lekosv9fp0",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe3xb02ifl504stu9cb27",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.732741,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000863.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000863",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC8d9d7…0cd0
8d9d72bae73e396b23ffd8a379886f189ea431fcf4a2003822d920e35c170cd0
{
 "confidenceScore": 66,
 "dataQualityScore": 6,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2w83te00bir6lekosv9fp0",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe3xb02ifl504stu9cb27",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.732741,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000863.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000863",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 73.3% · DRAW 17.4% · AWAY 9.4%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-10 21:12Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-10 21:12Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000863.v2

1X2 · HOME · 71.5% · confidence 65 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.40
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sun 11 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Published
Sun 11 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Locked
Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 15:15 UTCdc633…99ce
dc63315d1efb6567bd532ba2e83984e7701d4d547892a77dd5c68326eb8c99ce
{
 "confidenceScore": 65,
 "dataQualityScore": 6,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3yvvlh004mr66dynqjl390",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.4,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe3xb02ifl504stu9cb27",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T15:15:53.701Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.715088,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000863.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000863.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T15:15:53.701Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC6a54a…05cf
6a54a286fd880efc728a17d98e3ac1cb8e7c1be223616439557777976fb205cf
{
 "confidenceScore": 65,
 "dataQualityScore": 6,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3yvvlh004mr66dynqjl390",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.4,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe3xb02ifl504stu9cb27",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T15:15:53.701Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.715088,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000863.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000863.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 71.5% · DRAW 19.4% · AWAY 9.1%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-11 15:15Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-11 15:15Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000863.v3

1X2 · HOME · 73.1% · confidence 66 · reason: Model refresh
פגיעה
Fair price
1.37
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sun 11 Oct · 21:13 UTC
Published
Sun 11 Oct · 21:13 UTC
Locked
Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 21:13 UTCea37f…9e93
ea37f3a3963fd0773ee74d335b101b0c7417083d1a5d83e906b626c79beb9e93
{
 "confidenceScore": 66,
 "dataQualityScore": 6,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv4bn5e5005vr6f9xu8ep1az",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.37,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe3xb02ifl504stu9cb27",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:41.141Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.730807,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000863.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000863.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:41.141Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC9cca2…6b84
9cca2ae62395c80855d92770a27d1bc38a345fb41546c51c02e2cf5929dc6b84
{
 "confidenceScore": 66,
 "dataQualityScore": 6,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv4bn5e5005vr6f9xu8ep1az",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.37,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe3xb02ifl504stu9cb27",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:41.141Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.730807,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000863.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000863.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 73.1% · DRAW 17.6% · AWAY 9.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-11 21:13Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-11 21:13Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.