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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000864

MQ-000864

Villarreal v Napoli · UEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct · 19:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 64.9% · confidence 90
בוטל
Fair price
1.54
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Fri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC
Published
Fri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC
Locked
Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTCa1788…aa1e
a1788dcd72baa54d61bc40daf6e2bbda4f0541d18316cef1efdf8f89d3c3aa1e
{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1gx78u00iar6uacyfqqeb1",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.54,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe40l02ill504deetv2px",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.648775,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000864",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTCab906…4436
ab9067a6ce21e5bbde0bc3f1dd41b4dccb2400eca1762c5ca5e75d0440c34436
{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1gx78u00iar6uacyfqqeb1",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.54,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe40l02ill504deetv2px",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.648775,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000864",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 64.9% · DRAW 19.1% · AWAY 16.0%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-09 21:15Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-09 21:15Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000864

1X2 · HOME · 59.2% · confidence 91 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.69
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sun 11 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Published
Sun 11 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Locked
Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 00:09 UTCd02e1…5d1a
d02e11c0e2b2d7a27efdc0e673da20cdbde319eea85d3dd69b645f3b7cdf5d1a
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv32jrp7006ir6ohxlgok3jx",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.69,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe40l02ill504deetv2px",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T00:09:54.547Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.591718,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000864.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000864",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T00:09:54.547Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC01336…1ccc
013366ae696c22655f6f46755a354f6862bf281f487ffcdc68547f0992861ccc
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv32jrp7006ir6ohxlgok3jx",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.69,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe40l02ill504deetv2px",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T00:09:54.547Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.591718,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000864.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000864",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 59.2% · DRAW 21.0% · AWAY 19.8%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-11 00:09Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-11 00:09Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000864.v2

1X2 · HOME · 59.2% · confidence 92 · reason: Market price update
בוטל
Fair price
1.69
Market price
2.20
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
16.4 percentage points
Generated
Sun 11 Oct · 21:13 UTC
Published
Sun 11 Oct · 21:13 UTC
Locked
Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 21:13 UTC98402…1eb2
984024db07b6b0dffcf8573206edbc77a54f5594b3ffd5c4e284f8c330e61eb2
{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv4bn8dt006ir6f944hp15yw",
 "edge": 0.164048,
 "fairOdds": 1.69,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe40l02ill504deetv2px",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:41.141Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.2,
 "modelProbability": 0.591718,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000864.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000864.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:41.141Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTCc27c2…bb22
c27c205ffa83a180be0fc6e846d94a7221988f1cf5e66ff49db567d037a9bb22
{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv4bn8dt006ir6f944hp15yw",
 "edge": 0.164048,
 "fairOdds": 1.69,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe40l02ill504deetv2px",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:41.141Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.2,
 "modelProbability": 0.591718,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000864.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000864.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 59.2% · DRAW 21.0% · AWAY 19.8%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-11 21:13Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-11 21:13Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.20
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000864.v3

1X2 · HOME · 59.2% · confidence 94 · reason: Market price update
פגיעה
Fair price
1.69
Market price
2.10
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
14.1 percentage points
Generated
Tue 13 Oct · 03:13 UTC
Published
Tue 13 Oct · 03:13 UTC
Locked
Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 13 Oct · 03:13 UTCf8c03…fe42
f8c0388870998bb4ac4c8093e34a6677bc825dabb3ed34e8b2041c7012b6fe42
{
 "confidenceScore": 94,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv63wgx4001er6pb4p0x6gj3",
 "edge": 0.141206,
 "fairOdds": 1.69,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe40l02ill504deetv2px",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-13T03:13:01.030Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.1,
 "modelProbability": 0.591718,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000864.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000864.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T03:13:01.030Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC7a902…c2c6
7a9022546315b34cfb2caba234e2b8f05625f97984cf34c29430431d674ac2c6
{
 "confidenceScore": 94,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv63wgx4001er6pb4p0x6gj3",
 "edge": 0.141206,
 "fairOdds": 1.69,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuwbe40l02ill504deetv2px",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-13T03:13:01.030Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.1,
 "modelProbability": 0.591718,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000864.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000864.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 59.2% · DRAW 21.0% · AWAY 19.8%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-13 03:13Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-13 03:13Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.10
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.