MQ-000865
Villarreal v Napoli · UEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.34
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Fri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC
- Published
- Fri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTCf1261…f2fc
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv1gx78u00iar6uacyfqqeb1",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.34,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe40l02ill504deetv2px",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.744434,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000865",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTCbc39e…30c3
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv1gx78u00iar6uacyfqqeb1",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.34,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe40l02ill504deetv2px",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.744434,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000865",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 74.4% · UNDER 25.6%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-09 21:15Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-09 21:15Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000865
- Fair price
- 1.39
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sun 11 Oct · 00:09 UTC
- Published
- Sun 11 Oct · 00:09 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 00:09 UTCc7b71…7998
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv32jrp7006ir6ohxlgok3jx",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.39,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe40l02ill504deetv2px",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-11T00:09:54.547Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.721733,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000865.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000865",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T00:09:54.547Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC797c2…e997
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv32jrp7006ir6ohxlgok3jx",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.39,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe40l02ill504deetv2px",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-11T00:09:54.547Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.721733,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000865.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000865",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 72.2% · UNDER 27.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-11 00:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-11 00:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000865.v2
- Fair price
- 1.39
- Market price
- 1.62
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 13.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 11 Oct · 21:13 UTC
- Published
- Sun 11 Oct · 21:13 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 21:13 UTCf8079…91a1
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv4bn8dt006ir6f944hp15yw",
"edge": 0.133494,
"fairOdds": 1.39,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe40l02ill504deetv2px",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:41.141Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.62,
"modelProbability": 0.720229,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000865.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000865.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:41.141Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordTue 13 Oct · 17:02 UTCb50d7…8693
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv4bn8dt006ir6f944hp15yw",
"edge": 0.133494,
"fairOdds": 1.39,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuwbe40l02ill504deetv2px",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-11T21:13:41.141Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.62,
"modelProbability": 0.720229,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000865.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000865.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-13T17:02:04.906Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 72.0% · UNDER 28.0%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-11 21:13Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-11 21:13Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.62
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.