Verified record
Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.
107
settled signals
72
wins
35
losses
67.3%
hit rate
1.64
avg. price at lock
12.6%
ROI, 1 unit each · 74 of 107 priced
83
avg. confidence
What these numbers describe
- period
- 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-11
- cohort
- live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
- unique fixtures
- 45
- predictions / signals
- 107 / not counted
- priced / unpriced
- 74 / 33
- as of
- 2026-10-14 13:03Z
- ledger watermark
- 2026-10-14 13:03Z
- metric / record version
- perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.
Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-11 · every figure here is Bundesliga only
Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Probability bucket performance
Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.
rated 30–40%
28.6%
7 predictions · avg 38.1%
rated 40–50%
47.1%
17 predictions · avg 44.7%
rated 50–60%
66.7%
27 predictions · avg 56.9%
rated 60–70%
75.6%
45 predictions · avg 64.9%
rated 70–80%
88.9%
9 predictions · avg 73.6%
rated 80–100%
100.0%
2 predictions · avg 81.4%
When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?
Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed
By confidence
| confidence | n | hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| <50 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 50-69 | 62 | 48.4% |
| 70-84 | 213 | 61.0% |
| 85+ | 483 | 58.2% |
Show me the receipts 20 shown
45 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.
| published | match | market | pick | prob. | conf. | price at lock | model | result | proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct, 21:12 |  FC Koln v  M'gladbachBundesliga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 68% | 88 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000822.v2
|
| 11 Oct, 11:08 | FC Koln v M'gladbachBundesliga | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 66% | 90 | 1.53 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000821.v7
|
| 11 Oct, 11:08 | FC Koln v M'gladbachBundesliga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 47% | 90 | 1.96 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000820.v9
|
| 10 Oct, 21:12 |  Freiburg v  FC Schalke 04Bundesliga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 59% | 70 | 1.63 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000827.v2
|
| 10 Oct, 09:11 |  Augsburg v  Bayern MunichBundesliga | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 73% | 88 | 1.14 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000738.v5
|
| 10 Oct, 12:10 |  Mainz v  LeverkusenBundesliga | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 62% | 79 | 1.54 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000730.v2
|
| 06 Oct, 15:15 |  SC Paderborn 07 v  StuttgartBundesliga | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 38% | 72 | 1.58 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000732
|
| 10 Oct, 03:13 |  Union Berlin v  SV 07 ElversbergBundesliga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 41% | 73 | 2.35 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000733.v4
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 |  RB Leipzig v  Ein FrankfurtBundesliga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 68% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000766
|
| 08 Oct, 21:14 |  Hoffenheim v  HamburgBundesliga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 58% | 85 | 1.42 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000734.v6
|
| 10 Oct, 09:11 | Augsburg v Bayern MunichBundesliga | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 69% | 88 | 1.17 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000737.v9
|
| 10 Oct, 09:11 | Augsburg v Bayern MunichBundesliga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 68% | 88 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000739.v5
|
| 06 Oct, 15:15 | Mainz v LeverkusenBundesliga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 66% | 75 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000731
|
| 10 Oct, 09:11 | RB Leipzig v Ein FrankfurtBundesliga | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 71% | 93 | 1.27 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000765.v2
|
| 10 Oct, 09:11 | RB Leipzig v Ein FrankfurtBundesliga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 59% | 93 | 1.57 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000764.v2
|
| 10 Oct, 09:11 | Hoffenheim v HamburgBundesliga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 64% | 85 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000736.v6
|
| 08 Oct, 21:14 | Hoffenheim v HamburgBundesliga | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 65% | 85 | 1.38 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000735.v6
|
| 10 Oct, 11:08 | Mainz v LeverkusenBundesliga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 40% | 76 | 3.01 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000729.v9
|
| 09 Oct, 18:09 |  Dortmund v  Werder BremenBundesliga | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 59% | 96 | 1.48 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000714.v3
|
| 06 Oct, 06:06 | Dortmund v Werder BremenBundesliga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 53% | 91 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000715
|