WinPIQKnow Before You Pick.
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🇺🇸 Showing content for United States · by location · Change21+ only · analysis and probability estimates, not financial advice · help: 1-800-GAMBLER

Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

130
settled signals
74
wins
56
losses
56.9%
hit rate
1.82
avg. price at lock
-9.3%
ROI, 1 unit each · 92 of 130 priced
87
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
54
predictions / signals
130 / not counted
priced / unpriced
92 / 38
as of
2026-10-14 14:06Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 14:03Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13 · every figure here is La Liga only

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
33.3%
9 predictions · avg 38.1%
rated 40–50%
39.1%
23 predictions · avg 44.2%
rated 50–60%
60.0%
70 predictions · avg 54.4%
rated 60–70%
68.0%
25 predictions · avg 63.0%
rated 70–80%
100.0%
3 predictions · avg 74.6%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 20 shown

Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided

54 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.

publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
12 Oct, 18:09Levante v SevillaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%932.14ens_v0.3WINMQ-000850.v2
08 Oct, 21:14Levante v SevillaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 58%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000851
08 Oct, 21:14Levante v SevillaLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%902.72ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000849
09 Oct, 12:09Elche v CeltaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 56%90—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000806.v2
09 Oct, 12:09Elche v CeltaLa Liga1X21Model probability 40%902.79ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000804.v3
11 Oct, 12:12Betis v OsasunaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 51%921.65ens_v0.3WINMQ-000835.v2
07 Oct, 18:09Betis v OsasunaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000836
11 Oct, 12:12Betis v OsasunaLa Liga1X21Model probability 53%921.49ens_v0.3WINMQ-000834.v2
06 Oct, 21:13Real Madrid v VillarrealLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 67%92—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000800
08 Oct, 21:14Real Madrid v VillarrealLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 66%921.29ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000799.v2
10 Oct, 09:11Real Madrid v VillarrealLa Liga1X21Model probability 56%931.36ens_v0.3WINMQ-000798.v5
08 Oct, 15:10Alaves v Ath MadridLa Liga1X22Model probability 39%931.80ens_v0.3WINMQ-000752.v4
10 Oct, 12:10Barcelona v GetafeLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 52%931.26ens_v0.3WINMQ-000762.v9
10 Oct, 00:09Barcelona v GetafeLa LigaBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 57%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000763.v3
10 Oct, 00:09Barcelona v GetafeLa Liga1X21Model probability 74%931.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000761.v9
20 Sept, 06:09Villarreal v LevanteLa Liga1X21Model probability 57%901.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000700.v4
20 Sept, 09:10Ath Madrid v Real MadridLa Liga1X22Model probability 54%902.07ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000686.v4
16 Sept, 15:15Ath Madrid v Real MadridLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 60%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000688
20 Sept, 09:10Ath Madrid v Real MadridLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 58%901.55ens_v0.3WINMQ-000687.v2
16 Sept, 21:11Valencia v SociedadLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%932.76ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000710