Verified record
Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.
759
settled signals
442
wins
317
losses
58.2%
hit rate
1.96
avg. price at lock
-0.6%
ROI, 1 unit each · 525 of 759 priced
85
avg. confidence
What these numbers describe
- period
- 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
- cohort
- live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
- unique fixtures
- 312
- predictions / signals
- 759 / not counted
- priced / unpriced
- 525 / 234
- as of
- 2026-10-14 15:06Z
- ledger watermark
- 2026-10-14 15:03Z
- metric / record version
- perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.
Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13
Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Probability bucket performance
Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.
rated 30–40%
0.0%
24 predictions · avg 38.0%
rated 40–50%
0.0%
70 predictions · avg 44.3%
rated 50–60%
0.0%
148 predictions · avg 53.9%
rated 60–70%
0.0%
53 predictions · avg 64.2%
rated 70–80%
0.0%
4 predictions · avg 73.9%
rated 80–100%
0.0%
1 predictions · avg 81.3%
When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?
Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed
By confidence
| confidence | n | hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| <50 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 50-69 | 62 | 48.4% |
| 70-84 | 213 | 61.0% |
| 85+ | 483 | 58.2% |
Show me the receipts 50 shown
Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All leaguesUEFA Champions LeagueLa LigaPremier LeagueLigue 1Serie ABundesligaIsraeli Premier LeagueUEFA Europa League·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided
| published | match | market | pick | prob. | conf. | price at lock | model | result | proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct, 12:09 |  Ath Madrid v  Man UnitedUEFA Champions League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 67% | 93 | 1.67 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000858.v3
|
| 13 Oct, 15:15 | Viking FK v  Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 54% | 71 | 1.12 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000855.v6
|
| 13 Oct, 00:08 | Ath Madrid v Man UnitedUEFA Champions League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 66% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000859.v3
|
| 08 Oct, 21:14 |  Levante v  SevillaLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 90 | 2.72 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000849
|
| 12 Oct, 18:09 |  Coventry v  NewcastlePremier League | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 48% | 75 | 2.09 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000848.v3
|
| 07 Oct, 21:13 |  Santander v  ValenciaLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 75 | 2.29 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000841
|
| 07 Oct, 21:13 |  Cagliari v  JuventusSerie A | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 55% | 90 | 1.56 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000838
|
| 07 Oct, 21:13 | Cagliari v JuventusSerie A | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 56% | 90 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000840
|
| 07 Oct, 18:09 |  Lecce v  BolognaSerie A | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 54% | 88 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000810
|
| 11 Oct, 12:12 |  Nice v  StrasbourgLigue 1 | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 38% | 96 | 2.98 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000811.v4
|
| 09 Oct, 21:15 |  Liverpool v  Man CityPremier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 57% | 90 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000830.v2
|
| 09 Oct, 00:09 |  Hull v  EvertonPremier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 75 | 3.67 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000807.v5
|
| 09 Oct, 12:09 |  Elche v  CeltaLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 40% | 90 | 2.79 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000804.v3
|
| 08 Oct, 21:14 | Elche v CeltaLa Liga | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 51% | 72 | 2.00 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000805.v2
|
| 09 Oct, 12:09 | Elche v CeltaLa Liga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 56% | 90 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000806.v2
|
| 11 Oct, 06:09 |  Crystal Palace v  Nott'm ForestPremier League | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 48% | 92 | 2.55 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000814.v7
|
| 11 Oct, 15:15 |  Sassuolo v  MilanSerie A | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 40% | 94 | 1.89 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000831.v6
|
| 11 Oct, 00:09 | Lecce v BolognaSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 62% | 92 | 1.73 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000809.v3
|
| 07 Oct, 12:08 |  Como v  RomaSerie A | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 56% | 88 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000803
|
| 10 Oct, 21:12 | Como v RomaSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 40% | 76 | 2.51 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000801.v5
|
| 10 Oct, 12:10 | Como v RomaSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 53% | 75 | 1.60 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000802.v3
|
| 08 Oct, 15:10 |  Monaco v  ToulouseLigue 1 | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 90 | 1.58 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000795.v6
|
| 10 Oct, 15:14 |  Brest v  AngersLigue 1 | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 51% | 93 | 2.17 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000789.v2
|
| 06 Oct, 21:13 |  Lorient v  Paris FCLigue 1 | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 53% | 89 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000793
|
| 08 Oct, 21:14 |  Real Madrid v  VillarrealLa Liga | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 66% | 92 | 1.29 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000799.v2
|
| 06 Oct, 21:13 | Real Madrid v VillarrealLa Liga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 67% | 92 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000800
|
| 10 Oct, 12:10 | Man United v  TottenhamPremier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 69% | 90 | 1.72 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000767.v10
|
| 10 Oct, 09:11 |  Augsburg v Bayern MunichBundesliga | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 69% | 88 | 1.17 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000737.v9
|
| 06 Oct, 15:15 |  Ipswich v  FulhamPremier League | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 38% | 71 | 2.50 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000749
|
| 06 Oct, 12:07 |  Arsenal v  LeedsPremier League | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 53% | 88 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000722
|
| 10 Oct, 09:11 | Arsenal v LeedsPremier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 55% | 92 | 2.01 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000721.v7
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 |  Maccabi Tel Aviv v  Bnei SakhninIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 63% | 84 | 1.48 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000784
|
| 08 Oct, 03:09 | Maccabi Tel Aviv v Bnei SakhninIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 78% | 84 | 1.14 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000783.v2
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 |  Inter v  ParmaSerie A | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 52% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000760
|
| 09 Oct, 00:09 |  Genoa v  FiorentinaSerie A | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 51% | 87 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000728.v3
|
| 10 Oct, 09:11 | Genoa v FiorentinaSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 57% | 93 | 1.76 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000727.v3
|
| 10 Oct, 12:10 | Genoa v FiorentinaSerie A | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 48% | 91 | 2.29 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000726.v4
|
| 06 Oct, 15:15 |  Alaves v Ath MadridLa Liga | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 50% | 74 | 1.98 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000753
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 |  Ironi Tiberias v  Hapoel Beer ShevaIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 63% | 83 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000782
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 | Ironi Tiberias v Hapoel Beer ShevaIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 61% | 83 | 1.53 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000781
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 |  Ironi Kiryat Shmona v  Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 50% | 80 | 2.05 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000778
|
| 10 Oct, 12:10 |  Aston Villa v  BrentfordPremier League | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 40% | 97 | 2.52 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000746.v10
|
| 06 Oct, 15:15 |  Sunderland v  BrightonPremier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 63% | 89 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000742
|
| 08 Oct, 15:10 | Sunderland v BrightonPremier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 59% | 88 | 1.79 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000741.v2
|
| 10 Oct, 11:08 |  Mainz v  LeverkusenBundesliga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 40% | 76 | 3.01 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000729.v9
|
| 08 Oct, 21:14 |  Hoffenheim v  HamburgBundesliga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 58% | 85 | 1.42 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000734.v6
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 | Man United v TottenhamPremier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 56% | 92 | 1.47 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000768
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 |  RB Leipzig v  Ein FrankfurtBundesliga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 68% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000766
|
| 09 Oct, 09:11 |  Dortmund v  Werder BremenBundesliga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 70% | 92 | 1.34 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000713.v4
|
| 20 Sept, 09:10 | Leverkusen v RB LeipzigBundesliga | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 68% | 93 | 1.31 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000684.v2
|