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🇺🇸 Showing content for United States · by location · Change21+ only · analysis and probability estimates, not financial advice · help: 1-800-GAMBLER

Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses, computed from the append-only ledger. Nothing is edited after publication; corrections create a new version.

83
settled predictions
49
wins
34
losses
59.0%
hit rate
1.92
avg. price at lock
0.502
Brier
10.0%
ROI, 1 unit each
—
CLV · not tracked yet
Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Stored before kickoff with a proof hash; locked at kickoff; corrections create a new version with a full audit trail. No cherry-picking is possible.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
0.0%
2 predictions · avg 37.8%
rated 40–50%
47.1%
17 predictions · avg 44.1%
rated 50–60%
59.6%
47 predictions · avg 53.8%
rated 60–70%
76.9%
13 predictions · avg 64.8%
rated 70–80%
66.7%
3 predictions · avg 71.8%
rated 80–100%
100.0%
1 predictions · avg 81.9%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest0 matches

0 matches

Live, settled83 matches
30–40%38% → 0% n=2
40–50%44% → 47% n=17
50–60%54% → 60% n=47
60–70%65% → 77% n=13
70–80%72% → 67% n=3
80–90%82% → 100% n=1
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rateBrier
<502100.0%0.452
50-691650.0%0.573
70-844065.0%0.487
85+2552.0%0.486

Show me the receipts 50 shown

Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All leaguesIL1SP1F1I1D1E0
publishedmatchpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
29 Aug, 16:36Hapoel Petah Tikva v Hapoel KatamonIsraeli Premier League1Model probability 53%772.55mock_v0WINMQ-000198.v2.v3
29 Aug, 16:36Hapoel Petah Tikva v Hapoel KatamonIsraeli Premier LeagueOverModel probability 52%772.15mock_v0LOSSMQ-000203.v2.v3
29 Aug, 16:36Hapoel Petah Tikva v Hapoel KatamonIsraeli Premier LeagueYesModel probability 50%77—mock_v0LOSSMQ-000204.v2
29 Aug, 16:36Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Ironi TiberiasIsraeli Premier League1Model probability 47%772.00mock_v0WINMQ-000200.v2.v3.v4
29 Aug, 16:36Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Ironi TiberiasIsraeli Premier LeagueOverModel probability 52%771.95mock_v0LOSSMQ-000205.v2.v3
29 Aug, 16:36Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Ironi TiberiasIsraeli Premier LeagueYesModel probability 50%77—mock_v0LOSSMQ-000206.v2
29 Aug, 16:36Beitar Jerusalem v Maccabi NetanyaIsraeli Premier LeagueOverModel probability 52%771.44mock_v0WINMQ-000207.v2.v3
29 Aug, 16:36Beitar Jerusalem v Maccabi NetanyaIsraeli Premier League1Model probability 70%771.40mock_v0LOSSMQ-000201.v2.v3.v4
29 Aug, 16:36Beitar Jerusalem v Maccabi NetanyaIsraeli Premier LeagueYesModel probability 50%77—mock_v0WINMQ-000208.v2
29 Aug, 18:15Brest v ToulouseLigue 11Model probability 41%872.51ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000113.v2.v3.v4
29 Aug, 18:15Auxerre v AngersLigue 1NoModel probability 53%87—ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000192.v2.v3
29 Aug, 18:15Auxerre v AngersLigue 1UnderModel probability 55%871.73ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000191.v2.v3.v4
29 Aug, 18:15Lyon v Le HavreLigue 1NoModel probability 52%85—ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000111.v2.v3
29 Aug, 18:15Auxerre v AngersLigue 11Model probability 52%872.12ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000112.v2.v3.v4.v5
29 Aug, 18:15Lyon v Le HavreLigue 1UnderModel probability 54%852.11ens_v0.1WINMQ-000110.v2.v3.v4
29 Aug, 18:15Lyon v Le HavreLigue 11Model probability 57%851.45ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000109.v2.v3.v4
29 Aug, 18:15Juventus v ParmaSerie ANoModel probability 63%86—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000107.v2.v3
29 Aug, 18:15Juventus v ParmaSerie AUnderModel probability 64%862.14ens_v0.1WINMQ-000106.v2.v3.v4.v5
29 Aug, 18:15Juventus v ParmaSerie A1Model probability 62%861.22ens_v0.1WINMQ-000105.v2.v3.v4.v5
29 Aug, 18:15Brest v ToulouseLigue 1YesModel probability 58%87—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000115.v2.v3
29 Aug, 18:15Brest v ToulouseLigue 1OverModel probability 54%871.95ens_v0.1WINMQ-000114.v2.v3.v4
29 Aug, 03:13FC Koln v HoffenheimBundesliga2Model probability 43%802.29ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000064.v2.v3
29 Aug, 03:13Bournemouth v EvertonPremier League1Model probability 48%872.05ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000067.v2.v3
29 Aug, 03:13Tottenham v NewcastlePremier League2Model probability 40%842.93ens_v0.1WINMQ-000077.v2.v3
29 Aug, 09:32Levante v BetisLa LigaUnderModel probability 54%821.91ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000072.v2.v3
29 Aug, 09:32Dortmund v HamburgBundesliga1Model probability 67%821.36ens_v0.1WINMQ-000087.v2.v3
29 Aug, 16:36Sociedad v EspanolLa Liga1Model probability 49%801.81mock_v0WINMQ-000096.v2.v3
29 Aug, 16:36Sociedad v EspanolLa LigaOverModel probability 52%801.77mock_v0WINMQ-000097.v2.v3
29 Aug, 16:36Sociedad v EspanolLa LigaYesModel probability 50%80—mock_v0WINMQ-000098.v2
29 Aug, 09:32Strasbourg v LensLigue 12Model probability 47%861.93ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000074.v2.v3
28 Aug, 08:42RB Leipzig v M'gladbachBundesligaYesModel probability 60%82—ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000058
28 Aug, 08:42FC Koln v HoffenheimBundesligaYesModel probability 68%79—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000066
28 Aug, 08:42Bournemouth v EvertonPremier LeagueYesModel probability 54%82—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000069
28 Aug, 08:42Levante v BetisLa LigaYesModel probability 52%79—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000073
28 Aug, 08:42Strasbourg v LensLigue 1YesModel probability 69%83—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000076
28 Aug, 08:42Tottenham v NewcastlePremier LeagueYesModel probability 59%83—ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000079
28 Aug, 08:42Sassuolo v TorinoSerie AYesModel probability 57%79—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000082
28 Aug, 08:42Monza v UdineseSerie AYesModel probability 53%80—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000085
28 Aug, 08:42Dortmund v HamburgBundesligaYesModel probability 55%78—ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000089
28 Aug, 08:56RB Leipzig v M'gladbachBundesliga1Model probability 58%851.55ens_v0.1WINMQ-000056.v2
28 Aug, 08:56RB Leipzig v M'gladbachBundesligaOverModel probability 59%851.46ens_v0.1WINMQ-000057.v2
28 Aug, 08:56FC Koln v HoffenheimBundesligaOverModel probability 67%821.53ens_v0.1WINMQ-000065.v2
28 Aug, 08:56Bournemouth v EvertonPremier LeagueOverModel probability 50%851.85ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000068.v2
28 Aug, 08:56Levante v BetisLa Liga2Model probability 46%822.19ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000071.v2
28 Aug, 08:56Strasbourg v LensLigue 1OverModel probability 70%861.63ens_v0.1WINMQ-000075.v2
28 Aug, 08:56Tottenham v NewcastlePremier LeagueOverModel probability 55%861.61ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000078.v2
28 Aug, 08:56Sassuolo v TorinoSerie A1Model probability 43%822.25ens_v0.1WINMQ-000080.v2
28 Aug, 08:56Sassuolo v TorinoSerie AOverModel probability 53%822.02ens_v0.1WINMQ-000081.v2
28 Aug, 08:56Monza v UdineseSerie A2Model probability 54%832.37ens_v0.1WINMQ-000083.v2
28 Aug, 08:56Monza v UdineseSerie AOverModel probability 50%832.25ens_v0.1WINMQ-000084.v2