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Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

759
settled signals
442
wins
317
losses
58.2%
hit rate
1.71
avg. price at lock
-0.6%
ROI, 1 unit each · 525 of 759 priced
85
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
312
predictions / signals
759 / not counted
priced / unpriced
525 / 234
as of
2026-10-14 14:06Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 14:03Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
100.0%
13 predictions · avg 38.9%
rated 40–50%
100.0%
35 predictions · avg 44.5%
rated 50–60%
100.0%
152 predictions · avg 54.9%
rated 60–70%
100.0%
80 predictions · avg 64.0%
rated 70–80%
100.0%
18 predictions · avg 73.3%
rated 80–100%
100.0%
2 predictions · avg 80.9%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 50 shown

Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All leaguesUEFA Champions LeagueSerie AIsraeli Premier LeagueLa LigaPremier LeagueBundesligaLigue 1UEFA Europa League·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided
publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
11 Oct, 00:09Villarreal v NapoliUEFA Champions LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 68%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000866.v2
13 Oct, 03:13Villarreal v NapoliUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 59%942.10ens_v0.3WINMQ-000864.v4
12 Oct, 21:12Arsenal v LilleUEFA Champions LeagueBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 52%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000862.v3
13 Oct, 09:10Arsenal v LilleUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 70%931.22ens_v0.3WINMQ-000860.v4
13 Oct, 15:15Arsenal v LilleUEFA Champions LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 55%931.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000861.v5
13 Oct, 00:08Ath Madrid v Man UnitedUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 58%931.91ens_v0.3WINMQ-000857.v5
11 Oct, 21:13Villarreal v NapoliUEFA Champions LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 72%921.62ens_v0.3WINMQ-000865.v3
08 Oct, 18:09Atalanta v VeneziaSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%88—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000844
10 Oct, 09:11Hapoel Katamon v Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 66%801.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000771.v3
07 Oct, 12:08Hapoel Katamon v Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier League1X22Model probability 49%811.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000770.v2
12 Oct, 18:09Levante v SevillaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%932.14ens_v0.3WINMQ-000850.v2
08 Oct, 21:14Levante v SevillaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 58%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000851
08 Oct, 18:09Atalanta v VeneziaSerie A1X21Model probability 58%881.56ens_v0.3WINMQ-000842
08 Oct, 18:09Atalanta v VeneziaSerie AOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 57%881.54ens_v0.3WINMQ-000843
12 Oct, 18:09Torino v UdineseSerie AOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 50%952.23ens_v0.3WINMQ-000846.v5
12 Oct, 18:09Torino v UdineseSerie A1X21Model probability 40%952.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000845.v5
08 Oct, 21:14Torino v UdineseSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 55%92—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000847
07 Oct, 21:13Cagliari v JuventusSerie AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 59%901.81ens_v0.3WINMQ-000839
09 Oct, 15:13Crystal Palace v Nott'm ForestPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 56%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000816.v3
11 Oct, 12:12Betis v OsasunaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 51%921.65ens_v0.3WINMQ-000835.v2
11 Oct, 12:12Sassuolo v MilanSerie AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 51%902.16ens_v0.3WINMQ-000832.v7
11 Oct, 12:12Betis v OsasunaLa Liga1X21Model probability 53%921.49ens_v0.3WINMQ-000834.v2
11 Oct, 15:15Liverpool v Man CityPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 55%921.64ens_v0.3WINMQ-000829.v2
11 Oct, 11:08FC Koln v M'gladbachBundesliga1X21Model probability 47%901.96ens_v0.3WINMQ-000820.v9
11 Oct, 11:08FC Koln v M'gladbachBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 66%901.53ens_v0.3WINMQ-000821.v7
10 Oct, 21:12FC Koln v M'gladbachBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 68%88—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000822.v2
08 Oct, 21:14Crystal Palace v Nott'm ForestPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%911.91ens_v0.3WINMQ-000815.v3
11 Oct, 11:08Lazio v MonzaSerie A1X21Model probability 48%881.72ens_v0.3WINMQ-000817.v3
07 Oct, 18:09Lazio v MonzaSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%88—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000819
11 Oct, 06:09Lazio v MonzaSerie AOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 55%871.78ens_v0.3WINMQ-000818.v2
09 Oct, 09:11Sassuolo v MilanSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 55%84—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000833.v2
11 Oct, 11:08Lecce v BolognaSerie A1X22Model probability 40%922.02ens_v0.3WINMQ-000808.v6
11 Oct, 11:08Nice v StrasbourgLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%931.58ens_v0.3WINMQ-000812.v2
07 Oct, 18:09Nice v StrasbourgLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000813
11 Oct, 06:09Rennes v AuxerreLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 63%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000826.v2
11 Oct, 06:09Rennes v AuxerreLigue 11X21Model probability 55%931.43ens_v0.3WINMQ-000824.v2
07 Oct, 18:09Rennes v AuxerreLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 62%921.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000825
11 Oct, 12:12Liverpool v Man CityPremier League1X22Model probability 53%892.14ens_v0.3WINMQ-000828.v7
07 Oct, 18:09Betis v OsasunaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000836
06 Oct, 21:13Lorient v Paris FCLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 52%891.85ens_v0.3WINMQ-000792
06 Oct, 21:13Brest v AngersLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 54%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000790
07 Oct, 18:09Brest v AngersLigue 11X21Model probability 42%901.96ens_v0.3WINMQ-000788.v3
06 Oct, 21:13Monaco v ToulouseLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 62%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000797
08 Oct, 21:14Monaco v ToulouseLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 57%901.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000796.v2
10 Oct, 09:11Real Madrid v VillarrealLa Liga1X21Model probability 56%931.36ens_v0.3WINMQ-000798.v5
06 Oct, 18:06Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%80—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000779
06 Oct, 18:06Ironi Tiberias v Hapoel Beer ShevaIsraeli Premier League1X22Model probability 49%831.36ens_v0.3WINMQ-000780
08 Oct, 15:10Alaves v Ath MadridLa Liga1X22Model probability 39%931.80ens_v0.3WINMQ-000752.v4
10 Oct, 00:09Barcelona v GetafeLa Liga1X21Model probability 74%931.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000761.v9
10 Oct, 12:10Barcelona v GetafeLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 52%931.26ens_v0.3WINMQ-000762.v9