WinPIQKnow Before You Pick.
Sign in
🇺🇸 Showing content for United States · by location · Change21+ only · analysis and probability estimates, not financial advice · help: 1-800-GAMBLER

Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

759
settled signals
442
wins
317
losses
58.2%
hit rate
1.82
avg. price at lock
-0.6%
ROI, 1 unit each · 525 of 759 priced
85
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
312
predictions / signals
759 / not counted
priced / unpriced
525 / 234
as of
2026-10-14 14:06Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 14:03Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
50.0%
24 predictions · avg 38.4%
rated 40–50%
43.2%
44 predictions · avg 44.4%
rated 50–60%
66.9%
148 predictions · avg 54.7%
rated 60–70%
63.4%
71 predictions · avg 64.3%
rated 70–80%
72.7%
11 predictions · avg 73.8%
rated 80–100%
50.0%
2 predictions · avg 81.1%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 49 shown

Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All leaguesUEFA Champions LeagueIsraeli Premier LeaguePremier LeagueLa LigaSerie ALigue 1BundesligaUEFA Europa League·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided
publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
13 Oct, 03:13Villarreal v NapoliUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 59%942.10ens_v0.3WINMQ-000864.v4
13 Oct, 09:10Arsenal v LilleUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 70%931.22ens_v0.3WINMQ-000860.v4
13 Oct, 00:08Ath Madrid v Man UnitedUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 58%931.91ens_v0.3WINMQ-000857.v5
08 Oct, 21:14Levante v SevillaLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%902.72ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000849
08 Oct, 18:09Atalanta v VeneziaSerie A1X21Model probability 58%881.56ens_v0.3WINMQ-000842
12 Oct, 18:09Torino v UdineseSerie A1X21Model probability 40%952.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000845.v5
09 Oct, 12:09Elche v CeltaLa Liga1X21Model probability 40%902.79ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000804.v3
11 Oct, 11:08FC Koln v M'gladbachBundesliga1X21Model probability 47%901.96ens_v0.3WINMQ-000820.v9
11 Oct, 12:12Betis v OsasunaLa Liga1X21Model probability 53%921.49ens_v0.3WINMQ-000834.v2
11 Oct, 11:08Lazio v MonzaSerie A1X21Model probability 48%881.72ens_v0.3WINMQ-000817.v3
11 Oct, 06:09Rennes v AuxerreLigue 11X21Model probability 55%931.43ens_v0.3WINMQ-000824.v2
10 Oct, 09:11Real Madrid v VillarrealLa Liga1X21Model probability 56%931.36ens_v0.3WINMQ-000798.v5
08 Oct, 15:10Monaco v ToulouseLigue 11X21Model probability 42%901.58ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000795.v6
07 Oct, 18:09Brest v AngersLigue 11X21Model probability 42%901.96ens_v0.3WINMQ-000788.v3
10 Oct, 00:09Barcelona v GetafeLa Liga1X21Model probability 74%931.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000761.v9
10 Oct, 15:14Inter v ParmaSerie A1X21Model probability 71%951.17ens_v0.3WINMQ-000758.v2
08 Oct, 03:09Maccabi Tel Aviv v Bnei SakhninIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 78%841.14ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000783.v2
09 Oct, 00:09Arsenal v LeedsPremier League1X21Model probability 57%901.38ens_v0.3WINMQ-000720.v3
10 Oct, 09:11RB Leipzig v Ein FrankfurtBundesliga1X21Model probability 59%931.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000764.v2
10 Oct, 12:10Man United v TottenhamPremier League1X21Model probability 69%901.72ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000767.v10
08 Oct, 21:14Hoffenheim v HamburgBundesliga1X21Model probability 58%851.42ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000734.v6
10 Oct, 15:14Lille v Le HavreLigue 11X21Model probability 52%941.53ens_v0.3WINMQ-000755.v2
09 Oct, 09:11Dortmund v Werder BremenBundesliga1X21Model probability 70%921.34ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000713.v4
09 Oct, 15:13Lens v LyonLigue 11X21Model probability 42%902.59ens_v0.3WINMQ-000716.v2
20 Sept, 09:10Auxerre v BrestLigue 11X21Model probability 40%933.04ens_v0.3WINMQ-000671.v3
20 Sept, 12:09Leverkusen v RB LeipzigBundesliga1X21Model probability 56%961.86ens_v0.3WINMQ-000683.v3
19 Sept, 09:10Parma v GenoaSerie A1X21Model probability 39%923.11ens_v0.3WINMQ-000668.v2
20 Sept, 06:09Juventus v AtalantaSerie A1X21Model probability 52%941.70ens_v0.3WINMQ-000696.v2
20 Sept, 06:09Leeds v Crystal PalacePremier League1X21Model probability 58%891.70ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000674.v3
16 Sept, 15:15Man City v SunderlandPremier League1X21Model probability 70%881.29ens_v0.3WINMQ-000677
16 Sept, 21:11Valencia v SociedadLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%932.76ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000710
20 Sept, 06:09Bournemouth v LiverpoolPremier League1X21Model probability 42%933.14ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000680.v2
20 Sept, 06:09Villarreal v LevanteLa Liga1X21Model probability 57%901.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000700.v4
16 Sept, 21:11Milan v LecceSerie A1X21Model probability 52%931.27ens_v0.3WINMQ-000704
17 Sept, 14:06Betis v GetafeLa Liga1X21Model probability 56%941.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000559.v5
17 Sept, 12:40Beitar Jerusalem v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 53%831.60ens_v0.3WINMQ-000635.v3
16 Sept, 06:09Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 62%841.40ens_v0.3WINMQ-000643.v2
19 Sept, 15:10Maccabi Haifa v Ironi TiberiasIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 53%831.22ens_v0.3WINMQ-000638.v4
15 Sept, 18:08Everton v IpswichPremier League1X21Model probability 53%861.76ens_v0.3WINMQ-000611
15 Sept, 18:08Monaco v LensLigue 11X21Model probability 42%912.04ens_v0.3WINMQ-000575.v2
15 Sept, 21:17Lyon v RennesLigue 11X21Model probability 49%922.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000654
19 Sept, 09:10Paris FC v StrasbourgLigue 11X21Model probability 47%891.86ens_v0.3WINMQ-000621.v2
19 Sept, 09:10Toulouse v Le HavreLigue 11X21Model probability 40%931.70ens_v0.3WINMQ-000650.v3
16 Sept, 03:14Espanol v ElcheLa Liga1X21Model probability 48%901.85ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000581.v2
19 Sept, 09:06Osasuna v VallecanoLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%942.54ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000590.v3
19 Sept, 09:10Bologna v TorinoSerie A1X21Model probability 49%941.94ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000593.v3
14 Sept, 21:11Bayern Munich v Union BerlinBundesliga1X21Model probability 81%921.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000572
16 Sept, 18:09Ath Bilbao v AlavesLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%941.64ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000618.v2
15 Sept, 18:08Werder Bremen v AugsburgBundesliga1X21Model probability 40%932.31ens_v0.3WINMQ-000608