Verified record
Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.
759
settled signals
442
wins
317
losses
58.2%
hit rate
2.47
avg. price at lock
-0.6%
ROI, 1 unit each · 525 of 759 priced
85
avg. confidence
What these numbers describe
- period
- 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
- cohort
- live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
- unique fixtures
- 312
- predictions / signals
- 759 / not counted
- priced / unpriced
- 525 / 234
- as of
- 2026-10-14 16:55Z
- ledger watermark
- 2026-10-14 16:03Z
- metric / record version
- perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.
Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13
Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Probability bucket performance
Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.
rated 30–40%
0.0%
24 predictions · avg 38.0%
rated 40–50%
0.0%
70 predictions · avg 44.3%
rated 50–60%
0.0%
148 predictions · avg 53.9%
rated 60–70%
0.0%
53 predictions · avg 64.2%
rated 70–80%
0.0%
4 predictions · avg 73.9%
rated 80–100%
0.0%
1 predictions · avg 81.3%
When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?
Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed
By confidence
| confidence | n | hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| <50 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 50-69 | 62 | 48.4% |
| 70-84 | 213 | 61.0% |
| 85+ | 483 | 58.2% |
Show me the receipts 20 shown
Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All leaguesUEFA Champions LeagueLa LigaPremier LeagueLigue 1Serie ABundesligaIsraeli Premier LeagueUEFA Europa League·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided
| published | match | market | pick | prob. | conf. | price at lock | model | result | proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Oct, 18:09 |  Lens v Sporting Clube de PortugalUEFA Champions League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 71% | 65 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000852
|
| 11 Oct, 21:13 |  Inter v Club Brugge KVUEFA Champions League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 81% | 68 | 1.25 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000854.v2
|
| 08 Oct, 21:14 |  Levante v  SevillaLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 90 | 2.72 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000849
|
| 07 Oct, 21:13 |  Santander v  ValenciaLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 75 | 2.29 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000841
|
| 11 Oct, 12:12 |  Troyes v  MarseilleLigue 1 | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 40% | 55 | 3.44 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000837.v5
|
| 09 Oct, 00:09 |  Hull v  EvertonPremier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 75 | 3.67 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000807.v5
|
| 09 Oct, 12:09 |  Elche v  CeltaLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 40% | 90 | 2.79 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000804.v3
|
| 10 Oct, 21:12 |  Como v  RomaSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 40% | 76 | 2.51 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000801.v5
|
| 08 Oct, 15:10 |  Monaco v  ToulouseLigue 1 | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 90 | 1.58 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000795.v6
|
| 10 Oct, 12:10 |  Man United v  TottenhamPremier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 69% | 90 | 1.72 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000767.v10
|
| 08 Oct, 03:09 |  Maccabi Tel Aviv v  Bnei SakhninIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 78% | 84 | 1.14 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000783.v2
|
| 08 Oct, 03:09 |  Hapoel Petah Tikva v  Maccabi NetanyaIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 35% | 66 | 4.00 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000773.v2
|
| 10 Oct, 11:08 |  Mainz v  LeverkusenBundesliga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 40% | 76 | 3.01 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000729.v9
|
| 08 Oct, 21:14 |  Hoffenheim v  HamburgBundesliga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 58% | 85 | 1.42 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000734.v6
|
| 09 Oct, 09:11 |  Dortmund v  Werder BremenBundesliga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 70% | 92 | 1.34 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000713.v4
|
| 09 Oct, 15:13 |  Malaga v  EspanolLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 36% | 60 | 2.90 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000719.v11
|
| 19 Sept, 09:10 |  Fiorentina v  NapoliSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 41% | 75 | 3.23 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000663.v2
|
| 20 Sept, 13:07 |  FC Schalke 04 v  SV 07 ElversbergBundesliga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 43% | 71 | 1.93 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000692.v3
|
| 20 Sept, 06:09 |  Bournemouth v  LiverpoolPremier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 93 | 3.14 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000680.v2
|
| 16 Sept, 21:11 | Valencia v  SociedadLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 93 | 2.76 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000710
|