WinPIQKnow Before You Pick.
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Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

759
settled signals
442
wins
317
losses
58.2%
hit rate
2.09
avg. price at lock
-0.6%
ROI, 1 unit each · 525 of 759 priced
85
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
312
predictions / signals
759 / not counted
priced / unpriced
525 / 234
as of
2026-10-14 13:04Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 13:03Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
50.0%
24 predictions · avg 38.4%
rated 40–50%
43.2%
44 predictions · avg 44.4%
rated 50–60%
66.9%
148 predictions · avg 54.7%
rated 60–70%
63.4%
71 predictions · avg 64.3%
rated 70–80%
72.7%
11 predictions · avg 73.8%
rated 80–100%
50.0%
2 predictions · avg 81.1%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 90 shown

Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All leaguesUEFA Champions LeagueIsraeli Premier LeaguePremier LeagueLa LigaSerie ALigue 1BundesligaUEFA Europa League·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided
publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
13 Oct, 03:13Villarreal v NapoliUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 59%942.10ens_v0.3WINMQ-000864.v4
13 Oct, 09:10Arsenal v LilleUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 70%931.22ens_v0.3WINMQ-000860.v4
11 Oct, 21:13RB Leipzig v PSVUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 73%66—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000863.v4
13 Oct, 00:08Ath Madrid v Man UnitedUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 58%931.91ens_v0.3WINMQ-000857.v5
11 Oct, 21:13Inter v Club Brugge KVUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 81%681.25ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000854.v2
09 Oct, 18:09Sabah FK v SK Slavia PrahaUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 48%66—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000853
09 Oct, 18:09Lens v Sporting Clube de PortugalUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 71%65—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000852
08 Oct, 21:14Levante v SevillaLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%902.72ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000849
08 Oct, 18:09Atalanta v VeneziaSerie A1X21Model probability 58%881.56ens_v0.3WINMQ-000842
12 Oct, 18:09Torino v UdineseSerie A1X21Model probability 40%952.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000845.v5
07 Oct, 21:13Santander v ValenciaLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%752.29ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000841
11 Oct, 12:12Troyes v MarseilleLigue 11X21Model probability 40%553.44ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000837.v5
10 Oct, 00:09Sociedad v La CorunaLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%741.60ens_v0.3WINMQ-000823.v5
09 Oct, 00:09Hull v EvertonPremier League1X21Model probability 42%753.67ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000807.v5
09 Oct, 12:09Elche v CeltaLa Liga1X21Model probability 40%902.79ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000804.v3
11 Oct, 11:08FC Koln v M'gladbachBundesliga1X21Model probability 47%901.96ens_v0.3WINMQ-000820.v9
11 Oct, 12:12Betis v OsasunaLa Liga1X21Model probability 53%921.49ens_v0.3WINMQ-000834.v2
11 Oct, 11:08Lazio v MonzaSerie A1X21Model probability 48%881.72ens_v0.3WINMQ-000817.v3
10 Oct, 21:12Freiburg v FC Schalke 04Bundesliga1X21Model probability 59%701.63ens_v0.3WINMQ-000827.v2
11 Oct, 06:09Rennes v AuxerreLigue 11X21Model probability 55%931.43ens_v0.3WINMQ-000824.v2
10 Oct, 21:12Como v RomaSerie A1X21Model probability 40%762.51ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000801.v5
10 Oct, 09:11Real Madrid v VillarrealLa Liga1X21Model probability 56%931.36ens_v0.3WINMQ-000798.v5
10 Oct, 12:10Paris SG v Le MansLigue 11X21Model probability 62%761.10ens_v0.3WINMQ-000794.v4
08 Oct, 15:10Monaco v ToulouseLigue 11X21Model probability 42%901.58ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000795.v6
07 Oct, 18:09Brest v AngersLigue 11X21Model probability 42%901.96ens_v0.3WINMQ-000788.v3
10 Oct, 15:14Napoli v FrosinoneSerie A1X21Model probability 41%571.51ens_v0.3WINMQ-000787.v8
10 Oct, 09:11Lorient v Paris FCLigue 11X21Model probability 37%723.60ens_v0.3WINMQ-000791.v3
08 Oct, 03:09Hapoel Petah Tikva v Maccabi NetanyaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 35%664.00ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000773.v2
10 Oct, 11:08Chelsea v BournemouthPremier League1X21Model probability 40%751.79ens_v0.3WINMQ-000743.v11
10 Oct, 00:09Barcelona v GetafeLa Liga1X21Model probability 74%931.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000761.v9
10 Oct, 15:14Inter v ParmaSerie A1X21Model probability 71%951.17ens_v0.3WINMQ-000758.v2
08 Oct, 03:09Maccabi Tel Aviv v Bnei SakhninIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 78%841.14ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000783.v2
09 Oct, 00:09Arsenal v LeedsPremier League1X21Model probability 57%901.38ens_v0.3WINMQ-000720.v3
10 Oct, 09:11RB Leipzig v Ein FrankfurtBundesliga1X21Model probability 59%931.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000764.v2
06 Oct, 18:06Hapoel Haifa v Maccabi Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 51%721.90ens_v0.3WINMQ-000786
10 Oct, 12:10Man United v TottenhamPremier League1X21Model probability 69%901.72ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000767.v10
08 Oct, 21:14Hoffenheim v HamburgBundesliga1X21Model probability 58%851.42ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000734.v6
10 Oct, 11:08Mainz v LeverkusenBundesliga1X21Model probability 40%763.01ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000729.v9
10 Oct, 15:14Lille v Le HavreLigue 11X21Model probability 52%941.53ens_v0.3WINMQ-000755.v2
10 Oct, 03:13Union Berlin v SV 07 ElversbergBundesliga1X21Model probability 41%732.35ens_v0.3WINMQ-000733.v4
09 Oct, 15:13Malaga v EspanolLa Liga1X21Model probability 36%602.90ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000719.v11
09 Oct, 09:11Dortmund v Werder BremenBundesliga1X21Model probability 70%921.34ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000713.v4
09 Oct, 15:13Lens v LyonLigue 11X21Model probability 42%902.59ens_v0.3WINMQ-000716.v2
16 Sept, 18:09SC Paderborn 07 v HoffenheimBundesliga1X21Model probability 39%514.37ens_v0.3WINMQ-000703
20 Sept, 09:10Auxerre v BrestLigue 11X21Model probability 40%933.04ens_v0.3WINMQ-000671.v3
20 Sept, 12:09Leverkusen v RB LeipzigBundesliga1X21Model probability 56%961.86ens_v0.3WINMQ-000683.v3
19 Sept, 09:10Parma v GenoaSerie A1X21Model probability 39%923.11ens_v0.3WINMQ-000668.v2
20 Sept, 06:09Juventus v AtalantaSerie A1X21Model probability 52%941.70ens_v0.3WINMQ-000696.v2
19 Sept, 09:10Fiorentina v NapoliSerie A1X21Model probability 41%753.23ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000663.v2
20 Sept, 13:07FC Schalke 04 v SV 07 ElversbergBundesliga1X21Model probability 43%711.93ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000692.v3
19 Sept, 09:10Getafe v MalagaLa Liga1X21Model probability 51%742.04ens_v0.3WINMQ-000666.v2
20 Sept, 06:09Leeds v Crystal PalacePremier League1X21Model probability 58%891.70ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000674.v3
16 Sept, 15:15Man City v SunderlandPremier League1X21Model probability 70%881.29ens_v0.3WINMQ-000677
16 Sept, 21:11Valencia v SociedadLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%932.76ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000710
20 Sept, 06:09Bournemouth v LiverpoolPremier League1X21Model probability 42%933.14ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000680.v2
20 Sept, 06:09Villarreal v LevanteLa Liga1X21Model probability 57%901.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000700.v4
16 Sept, 21:11Milan v LecceSerie A1X21Model probability 52%931.27ens_v0.3WINMQ-000704
16 Sept, 18:09Juventus v NEC NijmegenUEFA Europa League1X21Model probability 76%711.20ens_v0.3WINMQ-000565.v4
17 Sept, 12:40Sociedad v BournemouthUEFA Europa League1X21Model probability 41%763.10ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000567.v6
15 Sept, 18:08Beşiktaş v MarseilleUEFA Europa League1X21Model probability 54%531.75ens_v0.3WINMQ-000566.v3
17 Sept, 12:40Levski Sofia v Red Bull SalzburgUEFA Europa League1X21Model probability 49%713.30ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000557.v3
14 Sept, 18:08OFI v 1899 HoffenheimUEFA Europa League1X21Model probability 67%707.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000558.v2
15 Sept, 18:08Crystal Palace v Lech PoznanUEFA Europa League1X21Model probability 53%691.40ens_v0.3WINMQ-000563.v3
17 Sept, 12:40Plzen v Union St. GilloiseUEFA Europa League1X21Model probability 73%712.50ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000562.v3
17 Sept, 14:06Betis v GetafeLa Liga1X21Model probability 56%941.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000559.v5
17 Sept, 12:40Celtic v Ferencvarosi TCUEFA Europa League1X21Model probability 48%691.70ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000564.v3
17 Sept, 12:40Beitar Jerusalem v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 53%831.60ens_v0.3WINMQ-000635.v3
16 Sept, 06:09Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 62%841.40ens_v0.3WINMQ-000643.v2
16 Sept, 18:09Maccabi Petah Tikva v Hapoel KatamonIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 49%722.20ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000642.v3
19 Sept, 15:10Maccabi Haifa v Ironi TiberiasIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 53%831.22ens_v0.3WINMQ-000638.v4
17 Sept, 12:40Lillestrom v TorreenseUEFA Europa League1X21Model probability 65%701.62ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000570.v5
19 Sept, 09:10Newcastle v HullPremier League1X21Model probability 38%541.60ens_v0.3WINMQ-000614.v2
15 Sept, 18:08Everton v IpswichPremier League1X21Model probability 53%861.76ens_v0.3WINMQ-000611
19 Sept, 09:10Angers v TroyesLigue 11X21Model probability 42%712.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000653.v2
15 Sept, 18:08Monaco v LensLigue 11X21Model probability 42%912.04ens_v0.3WINMQ-000575.v2
15 Sept, 21:17Lyon v RennesLigue 11X21Model probability 49%922.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000654
19 Sept, 09:10Paris FC v StrasbourgLigue 11X21Model probability 47%891.86ens_v0.3WINMQ-000621.v2
15 Sept, 21:17Le Mans v LorientLigue 11X21Model probability 41%722.68ens_v0.3WINMQ-000649
19 Sept, 09:10Toulouse v Le HavreLigue 11X21Model probability 40%931.70ens_v0.3WINMQ-000650.v3
16 Sept, 03:14Espanol v ElcheLa Liga1X21Model probability 48%901.85ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000581.v2
19 Sept, 09:06Osasuna v VallecanoLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%942.54ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000590.v3
19 Sept, 09:10Bologna v TorinoSerie A1X21Model probability 49%941.94ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000593.v3
14 Sept, 21:11Bayern Munich v Union BerlinBundesliga1X21Model probability 81%921.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000572
16 Sept, 18:09Ath Bilbao v AlavesLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%941.64ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000618.v2
16 Sept, 21:11Udinese v CagliariSerie A1X21Model probability 36%752.23ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000596.v4
16 Sept, 00:08Roma v InterSerie A1X21Model probability 41%762.67ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000624.v2
15 Sept, 18:08Werder Bremen v AugsburgBundesliga1X21Model probability 40%932.31ens_v0.3WINMQ-000608
15 Sept, 18:08Nott'm Forest v CoventryPremier League1X21Model probability 65%711.65ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000630
19 Sept, 09:06Tottenham v Aston VillaPremier League1X21Model probability 40%751.94ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000587.v4
19 Sept, 12:11Celta v SantanderLa Liga1X21Model probability 38%571.79ens_v0.3WINMQ-000631.v4