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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000193

MQ-000193

Freiburg v Werder Bremen · Bundesliga · Sun 30 Aug · 13:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · OVER · 55.8% · confidence 81
בוטל
Fair price
1.79
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Fri 28 Aug · 08:46 UTC
Published
Fri 28 Aug · 08:46 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordFri 28 Aug · 08:46 UTC00f30…11a4
00f30d820781aa8d2d0c6ff3b7a75dce6e261f4f2a5e2234858643f18c9111a4
{
 "confidenceScore": 81,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpivg0008dr6kh7lgzq527",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.79,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3o00nxr6zobja67tlx",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:46:01.046Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.557619,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000193",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-28T08:46:01.046Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 55.8% · UNDER 44.2%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-28 08:46Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000193

OU25 · OVER · 55.8% · confidence 84 · reason: Market prices added
בוטל
Fair price
1.79
Market price
1.73
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1.5 percentage points
Generated
Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
Published
Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordFri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC562fc…47e8
562fc46a8b374d1bccf6daea77d2e367205b827d2de8ebf98b042ef9011947e8
{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpwjj500ytr60vgv3fvkzz",
 "edge": 0.015292,
 "fairOdds": 1.79,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3o00nxr6zobja67tlx",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:56:38.254Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.73,
 "modelProbability": 0.55762,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000193.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000193",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-28T08:56:38.254Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 55.8% · UNDER 44.2%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-28 08:56Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.73
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000193.v2

OU25 · OVER · 52.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.92
Market price
1.74
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
2 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 16:36 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 16:36 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 16:36 UTCedf96…fa75
edf96b334180b3216a17b935eabc3d1978d4816ab2ee6bc39fa4fefbb93ffa75
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtelre4q00kpl104m3k3k8th",
 "edge": -0.019683,
 "fairOdds": 1.92,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3o00nxr6zobja67tlx",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T16:36:00.618Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.74,
 "modelProbability": 0.52,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000193.v2.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000193.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T16:36:00.618Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 52.0% · UNDER 48.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 16:36Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.74
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000193.v2.v3

OU25 · OVER · 55.7% · confidence 83 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.80
Market price
1.74
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1.6 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 18:15 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 18:15 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 18:15 UTC2d9f7…b500
2d9f772183ae34b4959bc49e18cfe1dbb45d61ed6d511c0b3cca41175c61b500
{
 "confidenceScore": 83,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtepd2zv00jzr6xf3ts33hsa",
 "edge": 0.016107,
 "fairOdds": 1.8,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3o00nxr6zobja67tlx",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T18:15:09.810Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.74,
 "modelProbability": 0.557004,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000193.v2.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T18:15:09.810Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 55.7% · UNDER 44.3%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 18:15Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.74
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4

OU25 · OVER · 52.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.92
Market price
1.74
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
2.1 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTCe81e0…68dc
e81e037ed0f0e38b1b785b836d93e431535f0cb8d79735f9f16308660b3a68dc
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmteus7i4002pkz04h7w7zl24",
 "edge": -0.020897,
 "fairOdds": 1.92,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3o00nxr6zobja67tlx",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.74,
 "modelProbability": 0.52,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 52.0% · UNDER 48.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 20:48Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.74
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4.v5

OU25 · OVER · 55.7% · confidence 84 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.79
Market price
1.74
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1.6 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC31ff9…7fa8
31ff9f734a431b4b2735a4ffc61921e90a181b4da9a704b071d875d15bac7fa8
{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtewbt5h0053r6ydnncpmvde",
 "edge": 0.016473,
 "fairOdds": 1.79,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3o00nxr6zobja67tlx",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.74,
 "modelProbability": 0.55737,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 55.7% · UNDER 44.3%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 21:31Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.74
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6

OU25 · OVER · 52.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.92
Market price
1.74
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
2.1 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTCc4258…6964
c4258fefe87ccf923781c3d18100e662a9f27d84922507fecad3ab537ddf6964
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtezvnjt002xl804qh49uv21",
 "edge": -0.020897,
 "fairOdds": 1.92,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3o00nxr6zobja67tlx",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.74,
 "modelProbability": 0.52,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 52.0% · UNDER 48.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 23:11Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.74
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 8 · previous MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7

OU25 · OVER · 55.7% · confidence 84 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.79
Market price
1.74
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1.6 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC4dc0d…fe9a
4dc0d7e5ed5eaa3d8870faf81d431d76db1c1d754456de59698525d5f294fe9a
{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtf1yrmk0053r6c4pqrl0j9y",
 "edge": 0.016496,
 "fairOdds": 1.79,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3o00nxr6zobja67tlx",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.74,
 "modelProbability": 0.557393,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 55.7% · UNDER 44.3%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 00:09Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.74
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 9 · previous MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8

OU25 · OVER · 52.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.92
Market price
1.74
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
2.1 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTCeb842…e324
eb8429de544a8e9773728bd27f84c42ef89af503b92fd6dadc780cdc9c78e324
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfcbmb5002pjz04gekguz1n",
 "edge": -0.020897,
 "fairOdds": 1.92,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3o00nxr6zobja67tlx",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.74,
 "modelProbability": 0.52,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 52.0% · UNDER 48.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 04:59Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.74
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 10 · previous MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9

OU25 · OVER · 55.7% · confidence 84 · reason: Model refresh
פגיעה
Fair price
1.79
Market price
1.74
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1.7 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC48a68…29c9
48a68776d1a0d0d107b80a82f68be2632161154dc3b982e7477bafbfe53d29c9
{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfe9z5p0053r6w08mt948ww",
 "edge": 0.016545,
 "fairOdds": 1.79,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3o00nxr6zobja67tlx",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.74,
 "modelProbability": 0.557442,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000193.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 55.7% · UNDER 44.3%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 05:54Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.74
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.