MQ-000578
Monza v Sassuolo · Serie A · Fri 18 Sept · 18:45 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.99
- Market price
- 2.39
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 10.6 percentage points
- Generated
- Mon 14 Sept · 21:11 UTC
- Published
- Mon 14 Sept · 21:11 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 21:11 UTCcad54…6ee4
{
"confidenceScore": 84,
"dataQualityScore": 64,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu1qplic008kr6jcrsiy323c",
"edge": 0.105864,
"fairOdds": 1.99,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlfq0006yr6dtcqz492j7",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T21:11:52.312Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.39,
"modelProbability": 0.502249,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000578",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T21:11:52.312Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 21.9% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 50.2%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-14 21:11Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-14 21:11Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.39
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000578
- Fair price
- 1.89
- Market price
- 2.31
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 11.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 12:14 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 12:14 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 12:14 UTC85119…bb52
{
"confidenceScore": 83,
"dataQualityScore": 64,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2n06jo0094r62glzv163x3",
"edge": 0.118267,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlfq0006yr6dtcqz492j7",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T12:14:32.558Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.31,
"modelProbability": 0.528559,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000578.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000578",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T12:14:32.558Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 20.4% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 52.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 12:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 12:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.31
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000578.v2
- Fair price
- 1.98
- Market price
- 2.32
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 9.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTCdbaad…4d8d
{
"confidenceScore": 84,
"dataQualityScore": 63,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zmav2007wr6rubcs4my5v",
"edge": 0.09681,
"fairOdds": 1.98,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlfq0006yr6dtcqz492j7",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.32,
"modelProbability": 0.505302,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000578.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000578.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 21.5% · DRAW 28.0% · AWAY 50.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.32
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 4 · previous MQ-000578.v3
- Fair price
- 1.89
- Market price
- 2.32
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 12 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 16 Sept · 09:12 UTC
- Published
- Wed 16 Sept · 09:12 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 09:12 UTC037e7…3ac0
{
"confidenceScore": 83,
"dataQualityScore": 63,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu3vx5j8005ar6qnctsu5x5g",
"edge": 0.119824,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlfq0006yr6dtcqz492j7",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T09:12:18.570Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.32,
"modelProbability": 0.528559,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000578.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000578.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-16T09:12:18.570Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 20.4% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 52.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-16 09:12Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-16 09:12Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.32
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 5 · previous MQ-000578.v4
- Fair price
- 1.98
- Market price
- 2.32
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 9.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 16 Sept · 15:15 UTC
- Published
- Wed 16 Sept · 15:15 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 15:15 UTC6dd3c…4d6b
{
"confidenceScore": 84,
"dataQualityScore": 63,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu48ut2f006ir6jjy09k5mmy",
"edge": 0.096663,
"fairOdds": 1.98,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlfq0006yr6dtcqz492j7",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T15:15:19.043Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.32,
"modelProbability": 0.505302,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000578.v5",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000578.v4",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-16T15:15:19.043Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 21.5% · DRAW 28.0% · AWAY 50.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-16 15:15Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-16 15:15Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.32
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.