Verified record
Every settled prediction, wins and losses, computed from the append-only ledger. Nothing is edited after publication; corrections create a new version.
83
settled predictions
49
wins
34
losses
59.0%
hit rate
2.33
avg. price at lock
0.502
Brier
10.0%
ROI, 1 unit each
—
CLV · not tracked yet
Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.
Stored before kickoff with a proof hash; locked at kickoff; corrections create a new version with a full audit trail. No cherry-picking is possible.
Probability bucket performance
Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.
rated 30–40%
0.0%
2 predictions · avg 37.8%
rated 40–50%
47.1%
17 predictions · avg 44.1%
rated 50–60%
59.6%
47 predictions · avg 53.8%
rated 60–70%
76.9%
13 predictions · avg 64.8%
rated 70–80%
66.7%
3 predictions · avg 71.8%
rated 80–100%
100.0%
1 predictions · avg 81.9%
When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?
Backtest0 matches
0 matches
Live, settled83 matches
30–40%38% → 0% n=2
40–50%44% → 47% n=17
50–60%54% → 60% n=47
60–70%65% → 77% n=13
70–80%72% → 67% n=3
80–90%82% → 100% n=1
predicted observed
By confidence
| confidence | n | hit rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| <50 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.452 |
| 50-69 | 16 | 50.0% | 0.573 |
| 70-84 | 40 | 65.0% | 0.487 |
| 85+ | 25 | 52.0% | 0.486 |
Show me the receipts 14 shown
| published | match | pick | prob. | conf. | price at lock | model | result | proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug, 16:36 | Bnei Sakhnin v Maccabi Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League | 2 | Model probability 44% | 41 | 2.30 | mock_v0 | WIN | MQ-000197.v2.v3.v4 |
| 29 Aug, 16:36 | Hapoel Ramat Gan v Hapoel Beer ShevaIsraeli Premier League | 2 | Model probability 47% | 41 | 1.45 | mock_v0 | WIN | MQ-000199.v2.v3.v4 |
| 29 Aug, 18:15 | Sevilla v Ath MadridLa Liga | 2 | Model probability 41% | 69 | 1.92 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000122.v2.v3.v4.v5 |
| 29 Aug, 03:13 | SV 07 Elversberg v LeverkusenBundesliga | 2 | Model probability 44% | 63 | — | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000063.v2 |
| 29 Aug, 03:13 | FC Koln v HoffenheimBundesliga | 2 | Model probability 43% | 80 | 2.29 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000064.v2.v3 |
| 29 Aug, 03:13 | Tottenham v NewcastlePremier League | 2 | Model probability 40% | 84 | 2.93 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000077.v2.v3 |
| 29 Aug, 06:10 | Coventry v HullPremier League | 2 | Model probability 44% | 57 | 4.72 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000070.v2.v3.v4 |
| 29 Aug, 09:32 | Strasbourg v LensLigue 1 | 2 | Model probability 47% | 86 | 1.93 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000074.v2.v3 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Union Berlin v Ein FrankfurtBundesliga | 2 | Model probability 36% | 69 | 2.58 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000060.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Levante v BetisLa Liga | 2 | Model probability 46% | 82 | 2.19 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000071.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Monza v UdineseSerie A | 2 | Model probability 54% | 83 | 2.37 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000083.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Crystal Palace v Man CityPremier League | 2 | Model probability 54% | 85 | 1.67 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000047.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Lille v Paris SGLigue 1 | 2 | Model probability 39% | 69 | 1.70 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000044.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Alaves v VillarrealLa Liga | 2 | Model probability 41% | 70 | 2.22 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000050.v2 |