Verified record
Every settled prediction, wins and losses, computed from the append-only ledger. Nothing is edited after publication; corrections create a new version.
123
settled predictions
75
wins
48
losses
61.0%
hit rate
2.22
avg. price at lock
14.9%
ROI, 1 unit each
81
avg. confidence
Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.
Stored before kickoff with a proof hash; locked at kickoff; corrections create a new version with a full audit trail. No cherry-picking is possible.
Probability bucket performance
Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.
rated 30–40%
25.0%
4 predictions · avg 38.8%
rated 40–50%
54.2%
24 predictions · avg 43.9%
rated 50–60%
61.6%
73 predictions · avg 54.0%
rated 60–70%
70.6%
17 predictions · avg 64.0%
rated 70–80%
75.0%
4 predictions · avg 72.4%
rated 80–100%
100.0%
1 predictions · avg 81.9%
When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?
Backtest0 matches
0 matches
Live, settled123 matches
30–40%39% → 25% n=4
40–50%44% → 54% n=24
50–60%54% → 62% n=73
60–70%64% → 71% n=17
70–80%72% → 75% n=4
80–90%82% → 100% n=1
predicted observed
By confidence
| confidence | n | hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| <50 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 50-69 | 17 | 47.1% |
| 70-84 | 55 | 74.5% |
| 85+ | 49 | 49.0% |
Show me the receipts 16 shown
| published | match | pick | prob. | conf. | price at lock | model | result | proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug, 00:09 |  Hapoel Haifa v  Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League | 2 | Model probability 41% | 61 | 1.67 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000202.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9 |
| 30 Aug, 16:14 |  Cagliari v  InterSerie A | 2 | Model probability 56% | 92 | 1.41 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000161.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11 |
| 29 Aug, 16:36 |  Bnei Sakhnin v  Maccabi Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League | 2 | Model probability 44% | 41 | 2.30 | mock_v0 | WIN | MQ-000197.v2.v3.v4 |
| 29 Aug, 16:36 |  Hapoel Ramat Gan v  Hapoel Beer ShevaIsraeli Premier League | 2 | Model probability 47% | 41 | 1.45 | mock_v0 | WIN | MQ-000199.v2.v3.v4 |
| 29 Aug, 18:15 |  Sevilla v  Ath MadridLa Liga | 2 | Model probability 41% | 69 | 1.92 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000122.v2.v3.v4.v5 |
| 29 Aug, 06:10 |  Coventry v  HullPremier League | 2 | Model probability 44% | 57 | 4.72 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000070.v2.v3.v4 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 |  Levante v  BetisLa Liga | 2 | Model probability 46% | 82 | 2.19 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000071.v2 |
| 29 Aug, 09:32 |  Strasbourg v  LensLigue 1 | 2 | Model probability 47% | 86 | 1.93 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000074.v2.v3 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 |  Union Berlin v  Ein FrankfurtBundesliga | 2 | Model probability 36% | 69 | 2.58 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000060.v2 |
| 29 Aug, 03:13 |  SV 07 Elversberg v  LeverkusenBundesliga | 2 | Model probability 44% | 63 | — | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000063.v2 |
| 29 Aug, 03:13 |  FC Koln v  HoffenheimBundesliga | 2 | Model probability 43% | 80 | 2.29 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000064.v2.v3 |
| 29 Aug, 03:13 |  Tottenham v  NewcastlePremier League | 2 | Model probability 40% | 84 | 2.93 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000077.v2.v3 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 |  Monza v  UdineseSerie A | 2 | Model probability 54% | 83 | 2.37 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000083.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 |  Crystal Palace v  Man CityPremier League | 2 | Model probability 54% | 85 | 1.67 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000047.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 |  Alaves v  VillarrealLa Liga | 2 | Model probability 41% | 70 | 2.22 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000050.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 |  Lille v  Paris SGLigue 1 | 2 | Model probability 39% | 69 | 1.70 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000044.v2 |