Verified record
Every settled prediction, wins and losses, computed from the append-only ledger. Nothing is edited after publication; corrections create a new version.
123
settled predictions
75
wins
48
losses
61.0%
hit rate
—
avg. price at lock
14.9%
ROI, 1 unit each
81
avg. confidence
Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.
Stored before kickoff with a proof hash; locked at kickoff; corrections create a new version with a full audit trail. No cherry-picking is possible.
Probability bucket performance
Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.
rated 30–40%
25.0%
4 predictions · avg 38.8%
rated 40–50%
54.2%
24 predictions · avg 43.9%
rated 50–60%
61.6%
73 predictions · avg 54.0%
rated 60–70%
70.6%
17 predictions · avg 64.0%
rated 70–80%
75.0%
4 predictions · avg 72.4%
rated 80–100%
100.0%
1 predictions · avg 81.9%
When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?
Backtest0 matches
0 matches
Live, settled123 matches
30–40%39% → 25% n=4
40–50%44% → 54% n=24
50–60%54% → 62% n=73
60–70%64% → 71% n=17
70–80%72% → 75% n=4
80–90%82% → 100% n=1
predicted observed
By confidence
| confidence | n | hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| <50 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 50-69 | 17 | 47.1% |
| 70-84 | 55 | 74.5% |
| 85+ | 49 | 49.0% |
Show me the receipts 0 shown
| published | match | pick | prob. | conf. | price at lock | model | result | proof |
|---|