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Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

115
settled signals
69
wins
46
losses
60.0%
hit rate
1.95
avg. price at lock
8.5%
ROI, 1 unit each · 80 of 115 priced
87
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-29 → 2026-10-12
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
45
predictions / signals
115 / not counted
priced / unpriced
80 / 35
as of
2026-10-14 14:06Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 14:03Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-12 · every figure here is Ligue 1 only

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
37.5%
8 predictions · avg 38.9%
rated 40–50%
56.5%
23 predictions · avg 44.2%
rated 50–60%
64.8%
54 predictions · avg 54.1%
rated 60–70%
60.0%
30 predictions · avg 63.2%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 50 shown

Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided

45 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.

publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
07 Oct, 18:09Nice v StrasbourgLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000813
11 Oct, 11:08Nice v StrasbourgLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%931.58ens_v0.3WINMQ-000812.v2
11 Oct, 12:12Nice v StrasbourgLigue 11X22Model probability 38%962.98ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000811.v4
11 Oct, 06:09Rennes v AuxerreLigue 11X21Model probability 55%931.43ens_v0.3WINMQ-000824.v2
07 Oct, 18:09Rennes v AuxerreLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 62%921.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000825
11 Oct, 06:09Rennes v AuxerreLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 63%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000826.v2
07 Oct, 18:09Brest v AngersLigue 11X21Model probability 42%901.96ens_v0.3WINMQ-000788.v3
10 Oct, 15:14Brest v AngersLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 51%932.17ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000789.v2
08 Oct, 15:10Monaco v ToulouseLigue 11X21Model probability 42%901.58ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000795.v6
06 Oct, 21:13Lorient v Paris FCLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 52%891.85ens_v0.3WINMQ-000792
06 Oct, 21:13Lorient v Paris FCLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%89—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000793
08 Oct, 21:14Monaco v ToulouseLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 57%901.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000796.v2
06 Oct, 21:13Monaco v ToulouseLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 62%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000797
06 Oct, 21:13Brest v AngersLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 54%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000790
06 Oct, 15:15Lille v Le HavreLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 54%912.25ens_v0.3WINMQ-000756
10 Oct, 15:14Lille v Le HavreLigue 11X21Model probability 52%941.53ens_v0.3WINMQ-000755.v2
06 Oct, 15:15Lille v Le HavreLigue 1Both teams to scoreNoModel probability 51%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000757
06 Oct, 06:06Lens v LyonLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 64%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000718
09 Oct, 15:13Lens v LyonLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 60%901.51ens_v0.3WINMQ-000717.v2
09 Oct, 15:13Lens v LyonLigue 11X21Model probability 42%902.59ens_v0.3WINMQ-000716.v2
20 Sept, 06:09Marseille v Paris SGLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%89—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000709.v2
20 Sept, 09:10Auxerre v BrestLigue 11X21Model probability 40%933.04ens_v0.3WINMQ-000671.v3
19 Sept, 09:10Auxerre v BrestLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 57%911.78ens_v0.3WINMQ-000672.v2
20 Sept, 18:06Marseille v Paris SGLigue 11X22Model probability 51%941.42ens_v0.3WINMQ-000707.v4
19 Sept, 09:10Marseille v Paris SGLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 57%891.37ens_v0.3WINMQ-000708.v2
20 Sept, 12:09Nice v LilleLigue 11X22Model probability 51%872.15ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000689.v2
16 Sept, 15:15Nice v LilleLigue 1Both teams to scoreNoModel probability 56%87—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000691
20 Sept, 15:08Nice v LilleLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 60%912.06ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000690.v3
19 Sept, 09:10Toulouse v Le HavreLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 52%932.13ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000651.v3
19 Sept, 09:10Toulouse v Le HavreLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000652.v2
19 Sept, 09:10Toulouse v Le HavreLigue 11X21Model probability 40%931.70ens_v0.3WINMQ-000650.v3
19 Sept, 09:10Paris FC v StrasbourgLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 61%891.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000622.v2
15 Sept, 18:08Paris FC v StrasbourgLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 64%87—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000623
19 Sept, 09:10Paris FC v StrasbourgLigue 11X21Model probability 47%891.86ens_v0.3WINMQ-000621.v2
15 Sept, 21:17Lyon v RennesLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 61%921.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000655
15 Sept, 21:17Lyon v RennesLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 63%92—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000656
15 Sept, 21:17Lyon v RennesLigue 11X21Model probability 49%922.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000654
14 Sept, 21:11Monaco v LensLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 64%911.54ens_v0.3WINMQ-000576
14 Sept, 21:11Monaco v LensLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 67%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000577
15 Sept, 18:08Monaco v LensLigue 11X21Model probability 42%912.04ens_v0.3WINMQ-000575.v2
08 Sept, 18:06Strasbourg v MonacoLigue 11X21Model probability 43%923.11ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000433
08 Sept, 18:06Strasbourg v MonacoLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 70%92—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000435
08 Sept, 18:06Strasbourg v MonacoLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 67%921.58ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000434
12 Sept, 12:09Lorient v ToulouseLigue 11X21Model probability 53%892.41ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000448.v3
09 Sept, 09:16Lorient v ToulouseLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%89—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000450
12 Sept, 15:14Lorient v ToulouseLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 51%891.85ens_v0.3WINMQ-000449.v3
12 Sept, 18:09Paris FC v LyonLigue 11X21Model probability 45%932.50ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000460.v2
09 Sept, 09:16Paris FC v LyonLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%89—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000462
12 Sept, 09:13Paris FC v LyonLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 56%891.56ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000461.v2
12 Sept, 03:10Le Havre v AngersLigue 11X21Model probability 44%932.62ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000457.v3