Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

130

settled signals

wins

losses

56.9%

hit rate

1.98

avg. price at lock

-9.3%

ROI, 1 unit each · 92 of 130 priced

avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period: 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
cohort: live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures: 54
predictions / signals: 130 / not counted
priced / unpriced: 92 / 38
as of: 2026-10-15 16:37Z
ledger watermark: 2026-10-15 14:05Z
metric / record version: perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1

sealed day 2026-10-14

249fbf54cb277b41bef54fa60a9af94a8d71b47a44bcbb90c48bad2a48bc4c53

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13 · every figure here is La Liga only

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%

0.0%

6 predictions · avg 37.8%

rated 40–50%

0.0%

14 predictions · avg 44.2%

rated 50–60%

0.0%

28 predictions · avg 53.5%

rated 60–70%

0.0%

8 predictions · avg 63.2%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches

30–40%39% → 38% n=898

40–50%45% → 45% n=2664

50–60%54% → 56% n=2253

60–70%65% → 68% n=919

70–80%75% → 77% n=342

80–90%83% → 84% n=50

90–100%93% → 89% n=9

predicted observed

Live, settled772 matches

30–40%38% → 38% n=42

40–50%44% → 41% n=128

50–60%54% → 60% n=400

60–70%64% → 66% n=166

70–80%73% → 88% n=32

80–90%81% → 75% n=4

predicted observed

By confidence

confidence	n	hit rate
<50	1	100.0%
50-69	66	48.5%
70-84	216	61.1%
85+	489	58.3%

Show me the receipts 5 shown

Last 20 Last 50 Last 100 All·1/X/2 Home Draw Away·Any confidence ≥70 ≥80·All results Wins Losses Pushes Voided

54 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.

published	match	market	pick	prob.	conf.	price at lock	model	result	proof
20 Sept, 09:10	Ath Madrid v Real MadridLa Liga	1X2	2	Model probability 54%	90	2.07	ens_v0.3	LOSS	MQ-000686.v4
20 Sept, 06:09	La Coruna v BetisLa Liga	1X2	2	Model probability 38%	59	2.00	ens_v0.3	LOSS	MQ-000699.v3
04 Sept, 12:26	Betis v Real MadridLa Liga	1X2	2	Model probability 48%	91	1.44	ens_v0.3	LOSS	MQ-000238.v2
28 Aug, 08:56	Levante v BetisLa Liga	1X2	2	Model probability 46%	82	2.19	ens_v0.1	LOSS	MQ-000071.v2
28 Aug, 08:56	Alaves v VillarrealLa Liga	1X2	2	Model probability 41%	70	2.22	ens_v0.1	LOSS	MQ-000050.v2