Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

settled signals

wins

losses

54.5%

hit rate

2.44

avg. price at lock

35.8%

ROI, 1 unit each · 10 of 11 priced

avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period: 2026-09-20 → 2026-09-20
cohort: live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures: 9
predictions / signals: 11 / not counted
priced / unpriced: 10 / 1
as of: 2026-10-14 13:46Z
ledger watermark: 2026-10-14 13:03Z
metric / record version: perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1

sealed day 2026-10-13

2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-09-20 and 2026-09-20 · every figure here is UEFA Europa League only

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 40–50%

0.0%

3 predictions · avg 46.0%

rated 60–70%

0.0%

1 predictions · avg 64.8%

rated 70–80%

0.0%

1 predictions · avg 73.4%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches

30–40%39% → 38% n=898

40–50%45% → 45% n=2664

50–60%54% → 56% n=2253

60–70%65% → 68% n=919

70–80%75% → 77% n=342

80–90%83% → 84% n=50

90–100%93% → 89% n=9

predicted observed

Live, settled759 matches

30–40%38% → 37% n=41

40–50%44% → 41% n=125

50–60%54% → 61% n=396

60–70%64% → 66% n=164

70–80%73% → 86% n=29

80–90%81% → 75% n=4

predicted observed

By confidence

confidence	n	hit rate
<50	1	100.0%
50-69	62	48.4%
70-84	213	61.0%
85+	483	58.2%

Show me the receipts 5 shown

Last 20 Last 50 Last 100 All·1/X/2 Home Draw Away·Any confidence ≥70 ≥80·All results Wins Losses Pushes Voided

Early record — 9 matches graded so far. Counts are shown; rates wait until there are more.

published	match	market	pick	prob.	conf.	price at lock	model	result	proof
17 Sept, 12:40	Sociedad v BournemouthUEFA Europa League	1X2	1	Model probability 41%	76	3.10	ens_v0.3	LOSS	MQ-000567.v6
17 Sept, 12:40	Levski Sofia v Red Bull SalzburgUEFA Europa League	1X2	1	Model probability 49%	71	3.30	ens_v0.3	LOSS	MQ-000557.v3
17 Sept, 12:40	Plzen v Union St. GilloiseUEFA Europa League	1X2	1	Model probability 73%	71	2.50	ens_v0.3	LOSS	MQ-000562.v3
17 Sept, 12:40	Celtic v Ferencvarosi TCUEFA Europa League	1X2	1	Model probability 48%	69	1.70	ens_v0.3	LOSS	MQ-000564.v3
17 Sept, 12:40	Lillestrom v TorreenseUEFA Europa League	1X2	1	Model probability 65%	70	1.62	ens_v0.3	LOSS	MQ-000570.v5