Verified record
Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.
115
settled signals
69
wins
46
losses
60.0%
hit rate
1.98
avg. price at lock
8.5%
ROI, 1 unit each · 80 of 115 priced
86
avg. confidence
What these numbers describe
- period
- 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-12
- cohort
- live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
- unique fixtures
- 45
- predictions / signals
- 115 / not counted
- priced / unpriced
- 80 / 35
- as of
- 2026-10-14 14:05Z
- ledger watermark
- 2026-10-14 14:03Z
- metric / record version
- perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.
Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-12 · every figure here is Ligue 1 only
Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Probability bucket performance
Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.
rated 30–40%
0.0%
5 predictions · avg 39.0%
rated 40–50%
0.0%
10 predictions · avg 43.9%
rated 50–60%
0.0%
19 predictions · avg 53.8%
rated 60–70%
0.0%
12 predictions · avg 63.0%
When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?
Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed
By confidence
| confidence | n | hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| <50 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 50-69 | 62 | 48.4% |
| 70-84 | 213 | 61.0% |
| 85+ | 483 | 58.2% |
Show me the receipts 40 shown
45 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.
| published | match | market | pick | prob. | conf. | price at lock | model | result | proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct, 12:12 |  Nice v  StrasbourgLigue 1 | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 38% | 96 | 2.98 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000811.v4
|
| 08 Oct, 15:10 |  Monaco v  ToulouseLigue 1 | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 90 | 1.58 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000795.v6
|
| 06 Oct, 21:13 |  Lorient v  Paris FCLigue 1 | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 53% | 89 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000793
|
| 10 Oct, 15:14 |  Brest v  AngersLigue 1 | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 51% | 93 | 2.17 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000789.v2
|
| 20 Sept, 12:09 | Nice v  LilleLigue 1 | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 51% | 87 | 2.15 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000689.v2
|
| 16 Sept, 15:15 | Nice v LilleLigue 1 | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 56% | 87 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000691
|
| 20 Sept, 15:08 | Nice v LilleLigue 1 | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 60% | 91 | 2.06 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000690.v3
|
| 15 Sept, 21:17 |  Lyon v  RennesLigue 1 | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 63% | 92 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000656
|
| 19 Sept, 09:10 | Toulouse v  Le HavreLigue 1 | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 52% | 93 | 2.13 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000651.v3
|
| 13 Sept, 12:09 | Brest v  Paris SGLigue 1 | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 60% | 93 | 1.35 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000494.v4
|
| 08 Sept, 18:06 | Strasbourg v MonacoLigue 1 | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 43% | 92 | 3.11 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000433
|
| 08 Sept, 18:06 | Strasbourg v MonacoLigue 1 | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 67% | 92 | 1.58 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000434
|
| 12 Sept, 12:09 | Lorient v ToulouseLigue 1 | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 53% | 89 | 2.41 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000448.v3
|
| 12 Sept, 18:09 | Paris FC v LyonLigue 1 | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 45% | 93 | 2.50 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000460.v2
|
| 09 Sept, 09:16 | Paris FC v LyonLigue 1 | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 59% | 89 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000462
|
| 12 Sept, 09:13 | Paris FC v LyonLigue 1 | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 56% | 89 | 1.56 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000461.v2
|
| 12 Sept, 03:10 | Le Havre v AngersLigue 1 | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 44% | 93 | 2.62 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000457.v3
|
| 09 Sept, 09:16 | Le Havre v AngersLigue 1 | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 50% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000459
|
| 09 Sept, 09:16 |  Auxerre v NiceLigue 1 | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 54% | 92 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000456
|
| 12 Sept, 06:09 |  Le Mans v  LensLigue 1 | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 38% | 70 | 1.65 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000481.v3
|
| 12 Sept, 06:09 | Brest v Paris SGLigue 1 | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 63% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000495.v2
|
| 11 Sept, 09:10 | Rennes v  MarseilleLigue 1 | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 66% | 93 | 1.48 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000397.v2
|
| 07 Sept, 19:06 | Rennes v MarseilleLigue 1 | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 67% | 92 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000398
|
| 06 Sept, 12:13 | Marseille v Paris FCLigue 1 | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 47% | 89 | 1.90 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000331.v3
|
| 05 Sept, 06:06 | Le Havre v BrestLigue 1 | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 40% | 91 | 2.64 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000293.v2
|
| 01 Sept, 09:58 | Lens v LorientLigue 1 | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 62% | 87 | 1.63 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000278
|
| 01 Sept, 09:58 | Lens v LorientLigue 1 | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 61% | 87 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000279
|
| 05 Sept, 10:29 | Lens v LorientLigue 1 | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 59% | 88 | 1.51 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000277.v3
|
| 04 Sept, 03:53 | Paris SG v MonacoLigue 1 | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 61% | 92 | 1.36 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000241.v2
|
| 01 Sept, 09:40 | Toulouse v LilleLigue 1 | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 51% | 92 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000222
|
| 30 Aug, 16:14 | Monaco v MarseilleLigue 1 | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 61% | 90 | 1.61 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000165.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
Open the sealed proof · MQ-000165.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11 |
| 30 Aug, 16:14 | Monaco v MarseilleLigue 1 | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 63% | 90 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
Open the sealed proof · MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10 |
| 30 Aug, 12:29 | Paris FC v NiceLigue 1 | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 53% | 90 | 1.78 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000135.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
Open the sealed proof · MQ-000135.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11 |
| 29 Aug, 18:15 | Auxerre v AngersLigue 1 | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 52% | 87 | 2.12 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000112.v2.v3.v4.v5
|
| 29 Aug, 18:15 | Auxerre v AngersLigue 1 | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 53% | 87 | — | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000192.v2.v3
|
| 29 Aug, 18:15 | Brest v ToulouseLigue 1 | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 41% | 87 | 2.51 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000113.v2.v3.v4
|
| 29 Aug, 18:15 | Auxerre v AngersLigue 1 | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 55% | 87 | 1.73 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000191.v2.v3.v4
|
| 29 Aug, 18:15 | Lyon v Le HavreLigue 1 | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 57% | 85 | 1.45 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000109.v2.v3.v4
|
| 29 Aug, 18:15 | Lyon v Le HavreLigue 1 | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 52% | 85 | — | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000111.v2.v3
|
| 29 Aug, 09:32 | Strasbourg v LensLigue 1 | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 47% | 86 | 1.93 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000074.v2.v3
|