Verified record
Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.
140
settled signals
76
wins
64
losses
54.3%
hit rate
1.92
avg. price at lock
2.5%
ROI, 1 unit each · 95 of 140 priced
87
avg. confidence
What these numbers describe
- period
- 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
- cohort
- live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
- unique fixtures
- 50
- predictions / signals
- 140 / not counted
- priced / unpriced
- 95 / 45
- as of
- 2026-10-14 14:06Z
- ledger watermark
- 2026-10-14 14:03Z
- metric / record version
- perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.
Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13 · every figure here is Serie A only
Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Probability bucket performance
Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.
rated 30–40%
50.0%
6 predictions · avg 38.0%
rated 40–50%
36.4%
22 predictions · avg 43.0%
rated 50–60%
53.6%
97 predictions · avg 54.1%
rated 60–70%
84.6%
13 predictions · avg 62.6%
rated 70–80%
100.0%
2 predictions · avg 70.8%
When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?
Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed
By confidence
| confidence | n | hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| <50 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 50-69 | 62 | 48.4% |
| 70-84 | 213 | 61.0% |
| 85+ | 483 | 58.2% |
Show me the receipts 25 shown
50 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.
| published | match | market | pick | prob. | conf. | price at lock | model | result | proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Oct, 18:09 |  Atalanta v  VeneziaSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 58% | 88 | 1.56 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000842
|
| 12 Oct, 18:09 |  Torino v  UdineseSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 40% | 95 | 2.50 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000845.v5
|
| 11 Oct, 11:08 |  Lazio v  MonzaSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 48% | 88 | 1.72 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000817.v3
|
| 10 Oct, 15:14 |  Inter v  ParmaSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 71% | 95 | 1.17 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000758.v2
|
| 19 Sept, 09:10 | Parma v  GenoaSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 39% | 92 | 3.11 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000668.v2
|
| 20 Sept, 06:09 |  Juventus v AtalantaSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 52% | 94 | 1.70 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000696.v2
|
| 16 Sept, 21:11 |  Milan v  LecceSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 52% | 93 | 1.27 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000704
|
| 19 Sept, 09:10 |  Bologna v TorinoSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 49% | 94 | 1.94 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000593.v3
|
| 12 Sept, 06:09 |  Como v ParmaSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 61% | 94 | 1.23 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000499.v2
|
| 14 Sept, 15:14 | Inter v UdineseSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 71% | 92 | 1.20 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000522.v10
|
| 12 Sept, 09:13 | Atalanta v  CagliariSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 47% | 93 | 1.69 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000451.v4
|
| 13 Sept, 09:14 | Lecce v MonzaSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 84 | 2.81 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000471.v2
|
| 01 Sept, 09:58 | Udinese v LazioSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 41% | 81 | 2.85 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000356
|
| 07 Sept, 16:02 | Cagliari v LecceSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 93 | 2.13 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000340.v4
|
| 06 Sept, 06:06 | Juventus v MilanSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 52% | 93 | 2.11 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000334.v3
|
| 01 Sept, 09:58 | Bologna v  SassuoloSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 87 | 1.94 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000324
|
| 01 Sept, 09:58 | Inter v  NapoliSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 55% | 92 | 1.67 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000280
|
| 05 Sept, 15:06 |  Roma v AtalantaSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 57% | 92 | 1.67 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000297.v2
|
| 05 Sept, 12:07 |  Fiorentina v TorinoSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 96 | 2.03 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000247.v2
|
| 30 Aug, 12:29 | Atalanta v BolognaSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 48% | 91 | 1.90 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000182.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9
|
| 30 Aug, 16:14 | Lazio v GenoaSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 44% | 93 | 2.32 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000158.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12.v13
Open the sealed proof · MQ-000158.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12.v13 |
| 30 Aug, 16:02 | Napoli v ComoSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 92 | 2.51 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000144.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12
Open the sealed proof · MQ-000144.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12 |
| 29 Aug, 18:15 | Juventus v ParmaSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 62% | 86 | 1.22 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000105.v2.v3.v4.v5
|
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Sassuolo v TorinoSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 43% | 82 | 2.25 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000080.v2
|
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Milan v VeneziaSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 58% | 81 | 1.46 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000041.v2
|