WinPIQKnow Before You Pick.
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🇺🇸 Showing content for United States · by location · Change21+ only · analysis and probability estimates, not financial advice · help: 1-800-GAMBLER

Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

45
settled signals
30
wins
15
losses
66.7%
hit rate
1.58
avg. price at lock
-2.4%
ROI, 1 unit each · 28 of 45 priced
82
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-09-09 → 2026-10-13
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
27
predictions / signals
45 / not counted
priced / unpriced
28 / 17
as of
2026-10-14 15:05Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 15:03Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-13 · every figure here is UEFA Champions League only

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
100.0%
1 predictions · avg 39.8%
rated 40–50%
100.0%
3 predictions · avg 46.0%
rated 50–60%
100.0%
11 predictions · avg 54.6%
rated 60–70%
100.0%
7 predictions · avg 66.8%
rated 70–80%
100.0%
7 predictions · avg 73.5%
rated 80–100%
100.0%
1 predictions · avg 80.9%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 20 shown

Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided

Early record — 27 matches graded so far. Counts are shown; rates wait until there are more.

publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
13 Oct, 00:08Ath Madrid v Man UnitedUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 58%931.91ens_v0.3WINMQ-000857.v5
13 Oct, 09:10Arsenal v LilleUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 70%931.22ens_v0.3WINMQ-000860.v4
12 Oct, 21:12Arsenal v LilleUEFA Champions LeagueBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 52%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000862.v3
13 Oct, 15:15Arsenal v LilleUEFA Champions LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 55%931.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000861.v5
13 Oct, 03:13Villarreal v NapoliUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 59%942.10ens_v0.3WINMQ-000864.v4
11 Oct, 00:09Villarreal v NapoliUEFA Champions LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 68%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000866.v2
11 Oct, 21:13Villarreal v NapoliUEFA Champions LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 72%921.62ens_v0.3WINMQ-000865.v3
10 Sept, 17:05Como v RB LeipzigUEFA Champions LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 73%931.44ens_v0.3WINMQ-000389.v4
10 Sept, 09:19Como v RB LeipzigUEFA Champions LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 67%92—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000390.v5
10 Sept, 09:19Como v RB LeipzigUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 69%921.75ens_v0.3WINMQ-000388.v6
09 Sept, 09:16Barcelona v Feyenoord RotterdamUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 76%701.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000374.v4
09 Sept, 09:16Liverpool v Ath MadridUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 47%931.73ens_v0.3WINMQ-000376.v3
09 Sept, 09:16Liverpool v Ath MadridUEFA Champions LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 74%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000378.v2
09 Sept, 09:16Liverpool v Ath MadridUEFA Champions LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 73%931.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000377.v3
09 Sept, 09:16Napoli v ArsenalUEFA Champions League1X22Model probability 53%891.62ens_v0.3WINMQ-000380.v6
08 Sept, 12:07Dortmund v VillarrealUEFA Champions LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 54%931.44ens_v0.3WINMQ-000369.v4
06 Sept, 06:06Dortmund v VillarrealUEFA Champions LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000370.v2
06 Sept, 21:12Dortmund v VillarrealUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 53%931.75ens_v0.3WINMQ-000368.v3
08 Sept, 12:07Real Madrid v InterUEFA Champions LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 64%911.44ens_v0.3WINMQ-000365.v10
07 Sept, 04:26Real Madrid v InterUEFA Champions LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 65%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000366.v4