Verified record
Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.
130
settled signals
74
wins
56
losses
56.9%
hit rate
2.04
avg. price at lock
-9.3%
ROI, 1 unit each · 92 of 130 priced
86
avg. confidence
What these numbers describe
- period
- 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
- cohort
- live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
- unique fixtures
- 54
- predictions / signals
- 130 / not counted
- priced / unpriced
- 92 / 38
- as of
- 2026-10-14 14:05Z
- ledger watermark
- 2026-10-14 14:03Z
- metric / record version
- perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.
Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13 · every figure here is La Liga only
Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Probability bucket performance
Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.
rated 30–40%
0.0%
6 predictions · avg 37.8%
rated 40–50%
0.0%
14 predictions · avg 44.2%
rated 50–60%
0.0%
28 predictions · avg 53.5%
rated 60–70%
0.0%
8 predictions · avg 63.2%
When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?
Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed
By confidence
| confidence | n | hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| <50 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 50-69 | 62 | 48.4% |
| 70-84 | 213 | 61.0% |
| 85+ | 483 | 58.2% |
Show me the receipts 43 shown
54 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.
| published | match | market | pick | prob. | conf. | price at lock | model | result | proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Oct, 21:14 |  Levante v  SevillaLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 90 | 2.72 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000849
|
| 09 Oct, 12:09 |  Elche v  CeltaLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 40% | 90 | 2.79 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000804.v3
|
| 09 Oct, 12:09 | Elche v CeltaLa Liga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 56% | 90 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000806.v2
|
| 08 Oct, 21:14 |  Real Madrid v  VillarrealLa Liga | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 66% | 92 | 1.29 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000799.v2
|
| 06 Oct, 21:13 | Real Madrid v VillarrealLa Liga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 67% | 92 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000800
|
| 20 Sept, 09:10 |  Ath Madrid v Real MadridLa Liga | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 54% | 90 | 2.07 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000686.v4
|
| 16 Sept, 21:11 |  Valencia v  SociedadLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 93 | 2.76 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000710
|
| 16 Sept, 21:11 | Valencia v SociedadLa Liga | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 51% | 93 | 1.89 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000711
|
| 16 Sept, 03:14 |  Espanol v ElcheLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 48% | 90 | 1.85 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000581.v2
|
| 19 Sept, 09:10 |  Osasuna v  VallecanoLa Liga | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 52% | 97 | 1.95 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000591.v2
|
| 16 Sept, 18:09 |  Ath Bilbao v  AlavesLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 94 | 1.64 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000618.v2
|
| 16 Sept, 06:09 | Ath Bilbao v AlavesLa Liga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 55% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000620.v2
|
| 19 Sept, 09:10 | Ath Bilbao v AlavesLa Liga | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 51% | 94 | 1.86 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000619.v3
|
| 19 Sept, 09:06 | Osasuna v VallecanoLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 94 | 2.54 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000590.v3
|
| 11 Sept, 18:09 | Vallecano v EspanolLa Liga | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 52% | 91 | 1.84 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000532
|
| 15 Sept, 12:14 | Alaves v ValenciaLa Liga | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 52% | 93 | 2.06 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000535.v3
|
| 15 Sept, 16:05 | Alaves v ValenciaLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 61% | 94 | 1.64 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000534.v8
|
| 13 Sept, 18:08 | Alaves v ValenciaLa Liga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 51% | 94 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000536.v3
|
| 10 Sept, 21:14 | Villarreal v  BetisLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 51% | 91 | 1.90 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000528
|
| 08 Sept, 18:06 | Osasuna v EspanolLa Liga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 51% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000432
|
| 08 Sept, 18:06 | Ath Bilbao v ElcheLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 52% | 91 | 1.43 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000445
|
| 08 Sept, 18:06 | Ath Bilbao v ElcheLa Liga | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 56% | 91 | 1.69 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000446
|
| 12 Sept, 06:09 | Osasuna v EspanolLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 48% | 93 | 2.21 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000430.v2
|
| 13 Sept, 09:14 | Sociedad v Ath MadridLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 40% | 92 | 3.24 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000496.v4
|
| 11 Sept, 06:08 | Sociedad v Ath MadridLa Liga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 61% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000498.v2
|
| 07 Sept, 19:06 | Sevilla v ValenciaLa Liga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 53% | 92 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000401
|
| 04 Sept, 12:26 |  Getafe v CeltaLa Liga | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 62% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000349.v2
|
| 07 Sept, 16:03 | Getafe v CeltaLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 94 | 2.60 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000347.v3
|
| 01 Sept, 09:58 | Alaves v OsasunaLa Liga | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 54% | 92 | 1.55 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000328
|
| 03 Sept, 21:39 | Espanol v SevillaLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 44% | 94 | 2.27 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000337.v2
|
| 01 Sept, 09:58 | Valencia v  BarcelonaLa Liga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 57% | 92 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000314
|
| 01 Sept, 09:58 | Ath Bilbao v Ath MadridLa Liga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 58% | 84 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000276
|
| 01 Sept, 09:58 | Betis v Real MadridLa Liga | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 57% | 90 | 1.39 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000239
|
| 04 Sept, 12:26 | Betis v Real MadridLa Liga | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 48% | 91 | 1.44 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000238.v2
|
| 01 Sept, 09:58 | Betis v Real MadridLa Liga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 60% | 90 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000240
|
| 03 Sept, 16:48 | Sociedad v CeltaLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 48% | 92 | 1.85 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000223.v3
|
| 01 Sept, 09:40 | Sociedad v CeltaLa Liga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 58% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000225
|
| 01 Sept, 09:40 | Sociedad v CeltaLa Liga | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 55% | 93 | 1.86 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000224
|
| 30 Aug, 17:13 | Celta v Ath BilbaoLa Liga | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 50% | 93 | 2.13 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000174.v2.v3
|
| 30 Aug, 17:13 | Celta v Ath BilbaoLa Liga | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 53% | 93 | 2.71 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12.v13.v14
Open the sealed proof · MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12.v13.v14 |
| 30 Aug, 12:29 | Celta v Ath BilbaoLa Liga | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 53% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000175.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
Open the sealed proof · MQ-000175.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Levante v BetisLa Liga | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 46% | 82 | 2.19 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000071.v2
|
| 29 Aug, 09:32 | Levante v BetisLa Liga | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 54% | 82 | 1.91 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000072.v2.v3
|