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🇺🇸 Showing content for United States · by location · Change21+ only · analysis and probability estimates, not financial advice · help: 1-800-GAMBLER

Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

107
settled signals
72
wins
35
losses
67.3%
hit rate
1.96
avg. price at lock
12.6%
ROI, 1 unit each · 74 of 107 priced
83
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-29 → 2026-10-11
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
45
predictions / signals
107 / not counted
priced / unpriced
74 / 33
as of
2026-10-14 14:06Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 14:03Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-11 · every figure here is Bundesliga only

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
28.6%
7 predictions · avg 38.1%
rated 40–50%
47.1%
17 predictions · avg 44.7%
rated 50–60%
66.7%
27 predictions · avg 56.9%
rated 60–70%
75.6%
45 predictions · avg 64.9%
rated 70–80%
88.9%
9 predictions · avg 73.6%
rated 80–100%
100.0%
2 predictions · avg 81.4%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 31 shown

Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided

45 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.

publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
11 Oct, 11:08FC Koln v M'gladbachBundesliga1X21Model probability 47%901.96ens_v0.3WINMQ-000820.v9
10 Oct, 21:12Freiburg v FC Schalke 04Bundesliga1X21Model probability 59%701.63ens_v0.3WINMQ-000827.v2
10 Oct, 03:13Union Berlin v SV 07 ElversbergBundesliga1X21Model probability 41%732.35ens_v0.3WINMQ-000733.v4
08 Oct, 21:14Hoffenheim v HamburgBundesliga1X21Model probability 58%851.42ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000734.v6
10 Oct, 09:11RB Leipzig v Ein FrankfurtBundesliga1X21Model probability 59%931.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000764.v2
10 Oct, 11:08Mainz v LeverkusenBundesliga1X21Model probability 40%763.01ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000729.v9
09 Oct, 09:11Dortmund v Werder BremenBundesliga1X21Model probability 70%921.34ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000713.v4
20 Sept, 13:07FC Schalke 04 v SV 07 ElversbergBundesliga1X21Model probability 43%711.93ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000692.v3
16 Sept, 18:09SC Paderborn 07 v HoffenheimBundesliga1X21Model probability 39%514.37ens_v0.3WINMQ-000703
20 Sept, 12:09Leverkusen v RB LeipzigBundesliga1X21Model probability 56%961.86ens_v0.3WINMQ-000683.v3
15 Sept, 18:08Werder Bremen v AugsburgBundesliga1X21Model probability 40%932.31ens_v0.3WINMQ-000608
14 Sept, 21:11Bayern Munich v Union BerlinBundesliga1X21Model probability 81%921.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000572
08 Sept, 18:06FC Koln v Werder BremenBundesliga1X21Model probability 49%892.09ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000439
12 Sept, 09:13Mainz v Ein FrankfurtBundesliga1X21Model probability 55%921.80ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000407.v2
08 Sept, 18:06Freiburg v M'gladbachBundesliga1X21Model probability 57%921.70ens_v0.3WINMQ-000410
10 Sept, 06:08Hoffenheim v StuttgartBundesliga1X21Model probability 41%892.31ens_v0.3WINMQ-000413.v3
08 Sept, 18:06Dortmund v SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga1X21Model probability 67%711.24ens_v0.3WINMQ-000416
12 Sept, 09:13RB Leipzig v HamburgBundesliga1X21Model probability 70%861.35ens_v0.3WINMQ-000475.v3
11 Sept, 09:10Union Berlin v FC Schalke 04Bundesliga1X21Model probability 51%712.39ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000392.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Hamburg v MainzBundesliga1X21Model probability 40%762.81ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000309
06 Sept, 14:06Ein Frankfurt v AugsburgBundesliga1X21Model probability 47%931.85ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000321.v2
01 Sept, 09:58M'gladbach v SV 07 ElversbergBundesliga1X21Model probability 45%631.81ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000259
05 Sept, 03:36SC Paderborn 07 v FreiburgBundesliga1X21Model probability 43%703.58ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000260.v2
05 Sept, 12:07Leverkusen v Union BerlinBundesliga1X21Model probability 61%961.38ens_v0.3WINMQ-000256.v3
04 Sept, 15:12Stuttgart v FC KolnBundesliga1X21Model probability 60%881.45ens_v0.3WINMQ-000229.v2
30 Aug, 12:29Augsburg v FC Schalke 04Bundesliga1X21Model probability 46%712.21ens_v0.3WINMQ-000143.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
30 Aug, 12:29Freiburg v Werder BremenBundesliga1X21Model probability 52%951.83ens_v0.3WINMQ-000137.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12.v13
28 Aug, 08:42Mainz v SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga1X21Model probability 52%64—ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000059
29 Aug, 09:32Dortmund v HamburgBundesliga1X21Model probability 67%821.36ens_v0.1WINMQ-000087.v2.v3
28 Aug, 08:56RB Leipzig v M'gladbachBundesliga1X21Model probability 58%851.55ens_v0.1WINMQ-000056.v2
28 Aug, 08:56Bayern Munich v StuttgartBundesliga1X21Model probability 72%861.22ens_v0.1WINMQ-000038.v2