WinPIQKnow Before You Pick.
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🇺🇸 Showing content for United States · by location · Change21+ only · analysis and probability estimates, not financial advice · help: 1-800-GAMBLER

Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

131
settled signals
65
wins
66
losses
49.6%
hit rate
2.09
avg. price at lock
-16.0%
ROI, 1 unit each · 90 of 131 priced
87
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
50
predictions / signals
131 / not counted
priced / unpriced
90 / 41
as of
2026-10-14 16:05Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 16:03Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13 · every figure here is Premier League only

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
33.3%
6 predictions · avg 38.6%
rated 40–50%
33.3%
21 predictions · avg 44.6%
rated 50–60%
55.8%
86 predictions · avg 54.6%
rated 60–70%
41.2%
17 predictions · avg 63.9%
rated 70–80%
100.0%
1 predictions · avg 73.9%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 33 shown

Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided

50 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.

publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
09 Oct, 00:09Hull v EvertonPremier League1X21Model probability 42%753.67ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000807.v5
10 Oct, 11:08Chelsea v BournemouthPremier League1X21Model probability 40%751.79ens_v0.3WINMQ-000743.v11
09 Oct, 00:09Arsenal v LeedsPremier League1X21Model probability 57%901.38ens_v0.3WINMQ-000720.v3
10 Oct, 12:10Man United v TottenhamPremier League1X21Model probability 69%901.72ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000767.v10
20 Sept, 06:09Bournemouth v LiverpoolPremier League1X21Model probability 42%933.14ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000680.v2
20 Sept, 06:09Leeds v Crystal PalacePremier League1X21Model probability 58%891.70ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000674.v3
16 Sept, 15:15Man City v SunderlandPremier League1X21Model probability 70%881.29ens_v0.3WINMQ-000677
19 Sept, 09:10Newcastle v HullPremier League1X21Model probability 38%541.60ens_v0.3WINMQ-000614.v2
15 Sept, 18:08Nott'm Forest v CoventryPremier League1X21Model probability 65%711.65ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000630
19 Sept, 09:06Tottenham v Aston VillaPremier League1X21Model probability 40%751.94ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000587.v4
16 Sept, 21:11Brentford v ChelseaPremier League1X21Model probability 47%932.76ens_v0.3WINMQ-000584.v3
15 Sept, 18:08Everton v IpswichPremier League1X21Model probability 53%861.76ens_v0.3WINMQ-000611
14 Sept, 06:11Leeds v NewcastlePremier League1X21Model probability 45%902.33ens_v0.3WINMQ-000525.v3
08 Sept, 18:06Crystal Palace v IpswichPremier League1X21Model probability 49%851.88ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000417
08 Sept, 18:06Tottenham v EvertonPremier League1X21Model probability 36%762.02ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000442
10 Sept, 18:08Bournemouth v BrentfordPremier League1X21Model probability 48%932.46ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000423.v2
12 Sept, 09:13Liverpool v FulhamPremier League1X21Model probability 55%931.51ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000420.v2
08 Sept, 18:06Chelsea v HullPremier League1X21Model probability 44%711.23ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000426
09 Sept, 09:16Aston Villa v Nott'm ForestPremier League1X21Model probability 41%932.18ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000427.v2
12 Sept, 06:09Man United v Man CityPremier League1X21Model probability 40%913.15ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000482.v2
03 Sept, 16:48Arsenal v ChelseaPremier League1X21Model probability 65%901.69ens_v0.3WINMQ-000318.v2
05 Sept, 06:06Hull v Aston VillaPremier League1X21Model probability 51%724.19ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000283.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Nott'm Forest v TottenhamPremier League1X21Model probability 57%932.51ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000261
03 Sept, 21:39Newcastle v BournemouthPremier League1X21Model probability 42%942.12ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000244.v2
03 Sept, 16:48Brighton v LeedsPremier League1X21Model probability 53%901.97ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000265.v2
05 Sept, 10:29Fulham v Crystal PalacePremier League1X21Model probability 53%932.17ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000271.v3
05 Sept, 06:06Brentford v SunderlandPremier League1X21Model probability 55%901.73ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000268.v2
04 Sept, 15:12Man City v CoventryPremier League1X21Model probability 74%701.16ens_v0.3WINMQ-000264.v2
30 Aug, 12:29Man United v IpswichPremier League1X21Model probability 58%861.37ens_v0.3WINMQ-000140.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12
30 Aug, 12:29Leeds v BrentfordPremier League1X21Model probability 40%932.85ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000131.v2.v3
30 Aug, 12:29Sunderland v FulhamPremier League1X21Model probability 41%922.37ens_v0.3WINMQ-000125.v2.v3
29 Aug, 03:13Bournemouth v EvertonPremier League1X21Model probability 48%872.05ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000067.v2.v3
29 Aug, 06:10Liverpool v Nott'm ForestPremier League1X21Model probability 52%871.48ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000053.v2.v3