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Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

140
settled signals
76
wins
64
losses
54.3%
hit rate
1.84
avg. price at lock
2.5%
ROI, 1 unit each · 95 of 140 priced
87
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
50
predictions / signals
140 / not counted
priced / unpriced
95 / 45
as of
2026-10-14 14:06Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 14:03Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13 · every figure here is Serie A only

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
100.0%
3 predictions · avg 39.5%
rated 40–50%
100.0%
8 predictions · avg 43.5%
rated 50–60%
100.0%
52 predictions · avg 54.5%
rated 60–70%
100.0%
11 predictions · avg 62.4%
rated 70–80%
100.0%
2 predictions · avg 70.8%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 76 shown

Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided

50 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.

publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
08 Oct, 21:14Torino v UdineseSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 55%92—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000847
08 Oct, 18:09Atalanta v VeneziaSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%88—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000844
12 Oct, 18:09Torino v UdineseSerie AOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 50%952.23ens_v0.3WINMQ-000846.v5
08 Oct, 18:09Atalanta v VeneziaSerie A1X21Model probability 58%881.56ens_v0.3WINMQ-000842
12 Oct, 18:09Torino v UdineseSerie A1X21Model probability 40%952.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000845.v5
08 Oct, 18:09Atalanta v VeneziaSerie AOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 57%881.54ens_v0.3WINMQ-000843
07 Oct, 21:13Cagliari v JuventusSerie AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 59%901.81ens_v0.3WINMQ-000839
11 Oct, 11:08Lecce v BolognaSerie A1X22Model probability 40%922.02ens_v0.3WINMQ-000808.v6
11 Oct, 11:08Lazio v MonzaSerie A1X21Model probability 48%881.72ens_v0.3WINMQ-000817.v3
07 Oct, 18:09Lazio v MonzaSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%88—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000819
11 Oct, 06:09Lazio v MonzaSerie AOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 55%871.78ens_v0.3WINMQ-000818.v2
09 Oct, 09:11Sassuolo v MilanSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 55%84—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000833.v2
11 Oct, 12:12Sassuolo v MilanSerie AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 51%902.16ens_v0.3WINMQ-000832.v7
10 Oct, 15:14Napoli v FrosinoneSerie A1X21Model probability 41%571.51ens_v0.3WINMQ-000787.v8
10 Oct, 15:14Inter v ParmaSerie AOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 59%951.40ens_v0.3WINMQ-000759.v3
10 Oct, 15:14Inter v ParmaSerie A1X21Model probability 71%951.17ens_v0.3WINMQ-000758.v2
16 Sept, 12:10Fiorentina v NapoliSerie AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 53%761.91ens_v0.3WINMQ-000664
16 Sept, 21:11Milan v LecceSerie A1X21Model probability 52%931.27ens_v0.3WINMQ-000704
19 Sept, 09:10Parma v GenoaSerie A1X21Model probability 39%923.11ens_v0.3WINMQ-000668.v2
20 Sept, 06:09Juventus v AtalantaSerie A1X21Model probability 52%941.70ens_v0.3WINMQ-000696.v2
16 Sept, 18:09Juventus v AtalantaSerie ABoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 51%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000698
20 Sept, 06:09Juventus v AtalantaSerie AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 55%941.96ens_v0.3WINMQ-000697.v3
16 Sept, 12:10Fiorentina v NapoliSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%76—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000665
19 Sept, 09:10Udinese v CagliariSerie AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 56%751.75ens_v0.3WINMQ-000597.v2
19 Sept, 09:10Bologna v TorinoSerie AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 53%941.70ens_v0.3WINMQ-000594.v2
16 Sept, 09:12Bologna v TorinoSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 51%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000595.v2
14 Sept, 21:11Monza v SassuoloSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 63%84—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000580
14 Sept, 21:11Monza v SassuoloSerie AOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 60%841.84ens_v0.3WINMQ-000579
19 Sept, 15:10Venezia v LazioSerie A1X22Model probability 54%842.01ens_v0.3WINMQ-000657.v3
19 Sept, 09:10Roma v InterSerie AOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 60%761.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000625.v2
15 Sept, 18:08Roma v InterSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 63%75—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000626
14 Sept, 09:12Inter v UdineseSerie AOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 62%921.45ens_v0.3WINMQ-000523.v3
14 Sept, 15:14Inter v UdineseSerie A1X21Model probability 71%921.20ens_v0.3WINMQ-000522.v10
12 Sept, 21:14Inter v UdineseSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 56%92—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000524.v2
14 Sept, 14:05Torino v RomaSerie A1X22Model probability 66%911.53ens_v0.3WINMQ-000502.v11
12 Sept, 06:09Como v ParmaSerie A1X21Model probability 61%941.23ens_v0.3WINMQ-000499.v2
13 Sept, 09:14Lecce v MonzaSerie A1X21Model probability 42%842.81ens_v0.3WINMQ-000471.v2
09 Sept, 18:07Lecce v MonzaSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%83—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000473
13 Sept, 09:14Napoli v BolognaSerie AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 53%741.87ens_v0.3WINMQ-000487.v6
07 Sept, 19:06Venezia v FiorentinaSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%86—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000395
11 Sept, 09:10Venezia v FiorentinaSerie A1X22Model probability 40%862.51ens_v0.3WINMQ-000393.v2
11 Sept, 15:17Venezia v FiorentinaSerie AOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 51%861.66ens_v0.3WINMQ-000394.v2
07 Sept, 16:02Cagliari v LecceSerie A1X21Model probability 42%932.13ens_v0.3WINMQ-000340.v4
07 Sept, 16:02Cagliari v LecceSerie AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 62%931.66ens_v0.3WINMQ-000341.v3
01 Sept, 09:58Cagliari v LecceSerie ABoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 53%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000342
01 Sept, 09:58Juventus v MilanSerie AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 56%901.73ens_v0.3WINMQ-000335
01 Sept, 09:58Bologna v SassuoloSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 51%87—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000326
06 Sept, 12:13Frosinone v VeneziaSerie A1X21Model probability 52%752.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000308.v3
06 Sept, 10:04Parma v MonzaSerie AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 56%691.66ens_v0.3WINMQ-000306.v2
05 Sept, 15:06Roma v AtalantaSerie A1X21Model probability 57%921.67ens_v0.3WINMQ-000297.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Roma v AtalantaSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 52%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000299
01 Sept, 09:58Inter v NapoliSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 55%92—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000282
01 Sept, 09:58Inter v NapoliSerie A1X21Model probability 55%921.67ens_v0.3WINMQ-000280
05 Sept, 10:29Inter v NapoliSerie AOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%931.90ens_v0.3WINMQ-000281.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Fiorentina v TorinoSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 55%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000249
04 Sept, 15:12Genoa v ComoSerie A1X22Model probability 53%881.71ens_v0.3WINMQ-000232.v2
30 Aug, 12:29Lecce v RomaSerie A1X22Model probability 55%921.47ens_v0.3WINMQ-000176.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
30 Aug, 18:14Lecce v RomaSerie ABoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 52%92—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000178.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
30 Aug, 12:29Atalanta v BolognaSerie A1X21Model probability 48%911.90ens_v0.3WINMQ-000182.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9
30 Aug, 18:14Atalanta v BolognaSerie AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 52%931.90ens_v0.3WINMQ-000183.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
30 Aug, 16:14Lazio v GenoaSerie A1X21Model probability 44%932.32ens_v0.3WINMQ-000158.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12.v13
30 Aug, 16:14Lazio v GenoaSerie ABoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 54%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000160.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
30 Aug, 16:14Lazio v GenoaSerie AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 60%931.51ens_v0.3WINMQ-000159.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
30 Aug, 16:14Cagliari v InterSerie A1X22Model probability 56%921.41ens_v0.3WINMQ-000161.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
29 Aug, 18:15Juventus v ParmaSerie AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 64%862.14ens_v0.1WINMQ-000106.v2.v3.v4.v5
29 Aug, 18:15Juventus v ParmaSerie A1X21Model probability 62%861.22ens_v0.1WINMQ-000105.v2.v3.v4.v5
29 Aug, 18:15Juventus v ParmaSerie ABoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 63%86—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000107.v2.v3
28 Aug, 08:42Sassuolo v TorinoSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%79—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000082
28 Aug, 08:56Monza v UdineseSerie A1X22Model probability 54%832.37ens_v0.1WINMQ-000083.v2
28 Aug, 08:56Sassuolo v TorinoSerie AOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%822.02ens_v0.1WINMQ-000081.v2
28 Aug, 08:56Sassuolo v TorinoSerie A1X21Model probability 43%822.25ens_v0.1WINMQ-000080.v2
28 Aug, 08:56Monza v UdineseSerie AOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 50%832.25ens_v0.1WINMQ-000084.v2
28 Aug, 08:42Monza v UdineseSerie ABoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%80—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000085
28 Aug, 08:42Milan v VeneziaSerie ABoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 54%78—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000043
28 Aug, 08:56Milan v VeneziaSerie A1X21Model probability 58%811.46ens_v0.1WINMQ-000041.v2
28 Aug, 08:56Milan v VeneziaSerie AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 57%812.07ens_v0.1WINMQ-000042.v2