WinPIQKnow Before You Pick.
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Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

759
settled signals
442
wins
317
losses
58.2%
hit rate
1.89
avg. price at lock
-0.6%
ROI, 1 unit each · 525 of 759 priced
85
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
312
predictions / signals
759 / not counted
priced / unpriced
525 / 234
as of
2026-10-14 13:02Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 07:54Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
100.0%
13 predictions · avg 38.9%
rated 40–50%
100.0%
35 predictions · avg 44.5%
rated 50–60%
100.0%
152 predictions · avg 54.9%
rated 60–70%
100.0%
80 predictions · avg 64.0%
rated 70–80%
100.0%
18 predictions · avg 73.3%
rated 80–100%
100.0%
2 predictions · avg 80.9%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 87 shown

Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All leaguesUEFA Champions LeagueSerie AIsraeli Premier LeagueLa LigaPremier LeagueBundesligaLigue 1UEFA Europa League·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided
publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
13 Oct, 03:13Villarreal v NapoliUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 59%942.10ens_v0.3WINMQ-000864.v4
13 Oct, 09:10Arsenal v LilleUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 70%931.22ens_v0.3WINMQ-000860.v4
11 Oct, 21:13RB Leipzig v PSVUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 73%66—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000863.v4
13 Oct, 00:08Ath Madrid v Man UnitedUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 58%931.91ens_v0.3WINMQ-000857.v5
09 Oct, 18:09Sabah FK v SK Slavia PrahaUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 48%66—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000853
08 Oct, 18:09Atalanta v VeneziaSerie A1X21Model probability 58%881.56ens_v0.3WINMQ-000842
12 Oct, 18:09Torino v UdineseSerie A1X21Model probability 40%952.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000845.v5
11 Oct, 12:12Betis v OsasunaLa Liga1X21Model probability 53%921.49ens_v0.3WINMQ-000834.v2
10 Oct, 00:09Sociedad v La CorunaLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%741.60ens_v0.3WINMQ-000823.v5
11 Oct, 11:08FC Koln v M'gladbachBundesliga1X21Model probability 47%901.96ens_v0.3WINMQ-000820.v9
11 Oct, 11:08Lazio v MonzaSerie A1X21Model probability 48%881.72ens_v0.3WINMQ-000817.v3
10 Oct, 21:12Freiburg v FC Schalke 04Bundesliga1X21Model probability 59%701.63ens_v0.3WINMQ-000827.v2
11 Oct, 06:09Rennes v AuxerreLigue 11X21Model probability 55%931.43ens_v0.3WINMQ-000824.v2
10 Oct, 12:10Paris SG v Le MansLigue 11X21Model probability 62%761.10ens_v0.3WINMQ-000794.v4
10 Oct, 09:11Lorient v Paris FCLigue 11X21Model probability 37%723.60ens_v0.3WINMQ-000791.v3
10 Oct, 15:14Napoli v FrosinoneSerie A1X21Model probability 41%571.51ens_v0.3WINMQ-000787.v8
07 Oct, 18:09Brest v AngersLigue 11X21Model probability 42%901.96ens_v0.3WINMQ-000788.v3
10 Oct, 09:11Real Madrid v VillarrealLa Liga1X21Model probability 56%931.36ens_v0.3WINMQ-000798.v5
10 Oct, 00:09Barcelona v GetafeLa Liga1X21Model probability 74%931.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000761.v9
10 Oct, 03:13Union Berlin v SV 07 ElversbergBundesliga1X21Model probability 41%732.35ens_v0.3WINMQ-000733.v4
10 Oct, 15:14Lille v Le HavreLigue 11X21Model probability 52%941.53ens_v0.3WINMQ-000755.v2
10 Oct, 11:08Chelsea v BournemouthPremier League1X21Model probability 40%751.79ens_v0.3WINMQ-000743.v11
06 Oct, 18:06Hapoel Haifa v Maccabi Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 51%721.90ens_v0.3WINMQ-000786
10 Oct, 09:11RB Leipzig v Ein FrankfurtBundesliga1X21Model probability 59%931.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000764.v2
09 Oct, 00:09Arsenal v LeedsPremier League1X21Model probability 57%901.38ens_v0.3WINMQ-000720.v3
10 Oct, 15:14Inter v ParmaSerie A1X21Model probability 71%951.17ens_v0.3WINMQ-000758.v2
09 Oct, 15:13Lens v LyonLigue 11X21Model probability 42%902.59ens_v0.3WINMQ-000716.v2
20 Sept, 09:10Auxerre v BrestLigue 11X21Model probability 40%933.04ens_v0.3WINMQ-000671.v3
16 Sept, 21:11Milan v LecceSerie A1X21Model probability 52%931.27ens_v0.3WINMQ-000704
20 Sept, 06:09Villarreal v LevanteLa Liga1X21Model probability 57%901.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000700.v4
16 Sept, 15:15Man City v SunderlandPremier League1X21Model probability 70%881.29ens_v0.3WINMQ-000677
19 Sept, 09:10Getafe v MalagaLa Liga1X21Model probability 51%742.04ens_v0.3WINMQ-000666.v2
20 Sept, 06:09Juventus v AtalantaSerie A1X21Model probability 52%941.70ens_v0.3WINMQ-000696.v2
19 Sept, 09:10Parma v GenoaSerie A1X21Model probability 39%923.11ens_v0.3WINMQ-000668.v2
20 Sept, 12:09Leverkusen v RB LeipzigBundesliga1X21Model probability 56%961.86ens_v0.3WINMQ-000683.v3
16 Sept, 18:09SC Paderborn 07 v HoffenheimBundesliga1X21Model probability 39%514.37ens_v0.3WINMQ-000703
17 Sept, 14:06Betis v GetafeLa Liga1X21Model probability 56%941.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000559.v5
16 Sept, 18:09Hapoel Beer Sheva v Ironi Kiryat ShmonaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 64%841.36ens_v0.3WINMQ-000632.v3
16 Sept, 21:11Brentford v ChelseaPremier League1X21Model probability 47%932.76ens_v0.3WINMQ-000584.v3
19 Sept, 12:11Celta v SantanderLa Liga1X21Model probability 38%571.79ens_v0.3WINMQ-000631.v4
15 Sept, 18:08Werder Bremen v AugsburgBundesliga1X21Model probability 40%932.31ens_v0.3WINMQ-000608
14 Sept, 21:11Bayern Munich v Union BerlinBundesliga1X21Model probability 81%921.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000572
15 Sept, 18:08Crystal Palace v Lech PoznanUEFA Europa League1X21Model probability 53%691.40ens_v0.3WINMQ-000563.v3
14 Sept, 18:08OFI v 1899 HoffenheimUEFA Europa League1X21Model probability 67%707.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000558.v2
15 Sept, 18:08Beşiktaş v MarseilleUEFA Europa League1X21Model probability 54%531.75ens_v0.3WINMQ-000566.v3
16 Sept, 18:09Juventus v NEC NijmegenUEFA Europa League1X21Model probability 76%711.20ens_v0.3WINMQ-000565.v4
17 Sept, 12:40Beitar Jerusalem v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 53%831.60ens_v0.3WINMQ-000635.v3
16 Sept, 06:09Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 62%841.40ens_v0.3WINMQ-000643.v2
19 Sept, 15:10Maccabi Haifa v Ironi TiberiasIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 53%831.22ens_v0.3WINMQ-000638.v4
19 Sept, 09:10Newcastle v HullPremier League1X21Model probability 38%541.60ens_v0.3WINMQ-000614.v2
15 Sept, 18:08Everton v IpswichPremier League1X21Model probability 53%861.76ens_v0.3WINMQ-000611
19 Sept, 09:10Angers v TroyesLigue 11X21Model probability 42%712.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000653.v2
15 Sept, 18:08Monaco v LensLigue 11X21Model probability 42%912.04ens_v0.3WINMQ-000575.v2
15 Sept, 21:17Lyon v RennesLigue 11X21Model probability 49%922.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000654
19 Sept, 09:10Paris FC v StrasbourgLigue 11X21Model probability 47%891.86ens_v0.3WINMQ-000621.v2
15 Sept, 21:17Le Mans v LorientLigue 11X21Model probability 41%722.68ens_v0.3WINMQ-000649
19 Sept, 09:10Toulouse v Le HavreLigue 11X21Model probability 40%931.70ens_v0.3WINMQ-000650.v3
15 Sept, 12:14Beitar Jerusalem v Maccabi Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 53%711.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000508.v3
15 Sept, 12:14Vallecano v EspanolLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%922.34ens_v0.3WINMQ-000531.v6
14 Sept, 06:11Leeds v NewcastlePremier League1X21Model probability 45%902.33ens_v0.3WINMQ-000525.v3
14 Sept, 06:11Hapoel Haifa v Bnei SakhninIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 54%841.80ens_v0.3WINMQ-000509.v3
14 Sept, 15:14Inter v UdineseSerie A1X21Model probability 71%921.20ens_v0.3WINMQ-000522.v10
12 Sept, 06:09Como v ParmaSerie A1X21Model probability 61%941.23ens_v0.3WINMQ-000499.v2
13 Sept, 06:08Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 42%832.10ens_v0.3WINMQ-000505.v2
12 Sept, 09:04Santander v AlavesLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%712.58ens_v0.3WINMQ-000402.v2
08 Sept, 18:06Freiburg v M'gladbachBundesliga1X21Model probability 57%921.70ens_v0.3WINMQ-000410
12 Sept, 09:13RB Leipzig v HamburgBundesliga1X21Model probability 70%861.35ens_v0.3WINMQ-000475.v3
13 Sept, 09:14Lecce v MonzaSerie A1X21Model probability 42%842.81ens_v0.3WINMQ-000471.v2
09 Sept, 18:07Lille v TroyesLigue 11X21Model probability 53%701.40ens_v0.3WINMQ-000474
12 Sept, 09:13Auxerre v NiceLigue 11X21Model probability 42%922.76ens_v0.3WINMQ-000454.v2
10 Sept, 06:08Hoffenheim v StuttgartBundesliga1X21Model probability 41%892.31ens_v0.3WINMQ-000413.v3
08 Sept, 18:06Dortmund v SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga1X21Model probability 67%711.24ens_v0.3WINMQ-000416
12 Sept, 12:09Real Madrid v VallecanoLa Liga1X21Model probability 70%911.13ens_v0.3WINMQ-000466.v11
10 Sept, 09:19Como v RB LeipzigUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 69%921.75ens_v0.3WINMQ-000388.v6
10 Sept, 06:08Man United v Sabah FKUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 73%66—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000387.v4
11 Sept, 09:10Sevilla v ValenciaLa Liga1X21Model probability 44%941.98ens_v0.3WINMQ-000399.v3
11 Sept, 09:10Rennes v MarseilleLigue 11X21Model probability 47%931.98ens_v0.3WINMQ-000396.v2
10 Sept, 06:08Bayern Munich v FK Bodø/GlimtUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 81%64—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000386.v3
09 Sept, 09:16Sporting Clube de Portugal v Galatasaray SKUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 40%47—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000383.v2
09 Sept, 09:16Liverpool v Ath MadridUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 47%931.73ens_v0.3WINMQ-000376.v3
09 Sept, 09:16Barcelona v Feyenoord RotterdamUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 76%701.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000374.v4
09 Sept, 09:16Paris SG v ŠK Slovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 64%691.03ens_v0.3WINMQ-000379.v3
09 Sept, 09:16Stuttgart v Viking FKUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 51%691.22ens_v0.3WINMQ-000375.v3
06 Sept, 21:12Dortmund v VillarrealUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 53%931.75ens_v0.3WINMQ-000368.v3
05 Sept, 03:36PAE AEK v LASK LinzUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 42%64—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000363
07 Sept, 16:32Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Ramat GanIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 56%691.33ens_v0.3WINMQ-000346.v4
07 Sept, 16:02Cagliari v LecceSerie A1X21Model probability 42%932.13ens_v0.3WINMQ-000340.v4