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🇺🇸 Showing content for United States · by location · Change21+ only · analysis and probability estimates, not financial advice · help: 1-800-GAMBLER

Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

131
settled signals
65
wins
66
losses
49.6%
hit rate
2.03
avg. price at lock
-16.0%
ROI, 1 unit each · 90 of 131 priced
88
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
50
predictions / signals
131 / not counted
priced / unpriced
90 / 41
as of
2026-10-14 13:02Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 07:54Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13 · every figure here is Premier League only

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
0.0%
4 predictions · avg 38.3%
rated 40–50%
0.0%
14 predictions · avg 44.4%
rated 50–60%
0.0%
38 predictions · avg 54.2%
rated 60–70%
0.0%
10 predictions · avg 64.2%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 66 shown

Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided

50 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.

publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
12 Oct, 18:09Coventry v NewcastlePremier League1X22Model probability 48%752.09ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000848.v3
09 Oct, 00:09Hull v EvertonPremier League1X21Model probability 42%753.67ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000807.v5
09 Oct, 21:15Liverpool v Man CityPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%90—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000830.v2
11 Oct, 06:09Crystal Palace v Nott'm ForestPremier League1X22Model probability 48%922.55ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000814.v7
06 Oct, 12:07Arsenal v LeedsPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 53%88—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000722
10 Oct, 09:11Arsenal v LeedsPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 55%922.01ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000721.v7
06 Oct, 15:15Ipswich v FulhamPremier League1X22Model probability 38%712.50ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000749
06 Oct, 18:06Man United v TottenhamPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 56%921.47ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000768
10 Oct, 12:10Man United v TottenhamPremier League1X21Model probability 69%901.72ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000767.v10
06 Oct, 15:15Sunderland v BrightonPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 63%89—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000742
08 Oct, 15:10Sunderland v BrightonPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 59%881.79ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000741.v2
10 Oct, 12:10Aston Villa v BrentfordPremier League1X22Model probability 40%972.52ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000746.v10
19 Sept, 09:10Leeds v Crystal PalacePremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 60%881.72ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000675.v2
16 Sept, 15:15Man City v SunderlandPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 52%88—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000679
20 Sept, 06:09Bournemouth v LiverpoolPremier League1X21Model probability 42%933.14ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000680.v2
16 Sept, 15:15Bournemouth v LiverpoolPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 60%93—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000682
16 Sept, 18:09Fulham v Man UnitedPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 52%901.60ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000694
20 Sept, 06:09Leeds v Crystal PalacePremier League1X21Model probability 58%891.70ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000674.v3
20 Sept, 06:09Bournemouth v LiverpoolPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 55%931.49ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000681.v2
16 Sept, 18:09Fulham v Man UnitedPremier League1X22Model probability 48%902.00ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000693
20 Sept, 06:09Leeds v Crystal PalacePremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%89—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000676.v2
15 Sept, 18:08Brighton v ArsenalPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%89—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000617
15 Sept, 18:08Nott'm Forest v CoventryPremier League1X21Model probability 65%711.65ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000630
19 Sept, 09:06Tottenham v Aston VillaPremier League1X21Model probability 40%751.94ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000587.v4
15 Sept, 12:14Tottenham v Aston VillaPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 54%912.07ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000588
14 Sept, 21:11Brentford v ChelseaPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 63%94—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000586
15 Sept, 18:08Everton v IpswichPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 61%86—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000613
15 Sept, 18:08Everton v IpswichPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 58%861.74ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000612
15 Sept, 18:08Brighton v ArsenalPremier League1X22Model probability 51%891.71ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000615
15 Sept, 18:08Brighton v ArsenalPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 51%892.06ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000616
08 Sept, 18:06Tottenham v EvertonPremier League1X21Model probability 36%762.02ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000442
08 Sept, 18:06Crystal Palace v IpswichPremier League1X21Model probability 49%851.88ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000417
08 Sept, 18:06Tottenham v EvertonPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%76—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000444
10 Sept, 18:08Bournemouth v BrentfordPremier League1X21Model probability 48%932.46ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000423.v2
12 Sept, 09:13Liverpool v FulhamPremier League1X21Model probability 55%931.51ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000420.v2
10 Sept, 06:08Liverpool v FulhamPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%92—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000422.v2
10 Sept, 06:08Liverpool v FulhamPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 57%921.46ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000421.v2
08 Sept, 18:06Chelsea v HullPremier League1X21Model probability 44%711.23ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000426
09 Sept, 09:16Aston Villa v Nott'm ForestPremier League1X21Model probability 41%932.18ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000427.v2
12 Sept, 06:09Man United v Man CityPremier League1X21Model probability 40%913.15ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000482.v2
09 Sept, 18:07Man United v Man CityPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 60%90—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000484
09 Sept, 18:07Man United v Man CityPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 56%901.52ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000483
06 Sept, 12:13Everton v Man UnitedPremier League1X22Model probability 41%961.95ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000301.v3
01 Sept, 09:58Nott'm Forest v TottenhamPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%93—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000263
05 Sept, 12:07Nott'm Forest v TottenhamPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%961.78ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000262.v4
03 Sept, 21:39Newcastle v BournemouthPremier League1X21Model probability 42%942.12ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000244.v2
05 Sept, 10:29Fulham v Crystal PalacePremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 51%931.86ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000272.v2
05 Sept, 06:06Brentford v SunderlandPremier League1X21Model probability 55%901.73ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000268.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Brentford v SunderlandPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 52%891.83ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000269
05 Sept, 10:29Fulham v Crystal PalacePremier League1X21Model probability 53%932.17ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000271.v3
03 Sept, 16:48Brighton v LeedsPremier League1X21Model probability 53%901.97ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000265.v2
05 Sept, 12:07Brighton v LeedsPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 54%931.76ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000266.v2
05 Sept, 06:06Hull v Aston VillaPremier League1X21Model probability 51%724.19ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000283.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Nott'm Forest v TottenhamPremier League1X21Model probability 57%932.51ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000261
04 Sept, 12:26Ipswich v LiverpoolPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 70%831.41ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000236.v4
01 Sept, 09:58Ipswich v LiverpoolPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 70%84—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000237
30 Aug, 05:54Aston Villa v ArsenalPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%86—ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000187.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7
28 Aug, 08:56Aston Villa v ArsenalPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 51%851.79ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000186.v2
30 Aug, 12:29Sunderland v FulhamPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 51%92—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000127.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
30 Aug, 12:29Leeds v BrentfordPremier League1X21Model probability 40%932.85ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000131.v2.v3
29 Aug, 03:13Bournemouth v EvertonPremier League1X21Model probability 48%872.05ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000067.v2.v3
28 Aug, 08:56Bournemouth v EvertonPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 50%851.85ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000068.v2
28 Aug, 08:42Tottenham v NewcastlePremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%83—ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000079
28 Aug, 08:56Tottenham v NewcastlePremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 55%861.61ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000078.v2
29 Aug, 06:10Liverpool v Nott'm ForestPremier League1X21Model probability 52%871.48ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000053.v2.v3
28 Aug, 08:56Crystal Palace v Man CityPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 50%852.15ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000048.v2