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🇺🇸 Showing content for United States · by location · Change21+ only · analysis and probability estimates, not financial advice · help: 1-800-GAMBLER

Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

131
settled signals
65
wins
66
losses
49.6%
hit rate
1.95
avg. price at lock
-16.0%
ROI, 1 unit each · 90 of 131 priced
87
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
50
predictions / signals
131 / not counted
priced / unpriced
90 / 41
as of
2026-10-14 12:08Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 07:54Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13 · every figure here is Premier League only

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
33.3%
6 predictions · avg 38.6%
rated 40–50%
33.3%
21 predictions · avg 44.6%
rated 50–60%
55.8%
86 predictions · avg 54.6%
rated 60–70%
41.2%
17 predictions · avg 63.9%
rated 70–80%
100.0%
1 predictions · avg 73.9%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 131 shown

50 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.

publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
12 Oct, 18:09Coventry v NewcastlePremier League1X22Model probability 48%752.09ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000848.v3
11 Oct, 06:09Crystal Palace v Nott'm ForestPremier League1X22Model probability 48%922.55ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000814.v7
09 Oct, 15:13Crystal Palace v Nott'm ForestPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 56%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000816.v3
08 Oct, 21:14Crystal Palace v Nott'm ForestPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%911.91ens_v0.3WINMQ-000815.v3
09 Oct, 00:09Hull v EvertonPremier League1X21Model probability 42%753.67ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000807.v5
11 Oct, 12:12Liverpool v Man CityPremier League1X22Model probability 53%892.14ens_v0.3WINMQ-000828.v7
11 Oct, 15:15Liverpool v Man CityPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 55%921.64ens_v0.3WINMQ-000829.v2
09 Oct, 21:15Liverpool v Man CityPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%90—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000830.v2
06 Oct, 18:06Man United v TottenhamPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 56%921.47ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000768
10 Oct, 11:08Sunderland v BrightonPremier League1X22Model probability 51%882.32ens_v0.3WINMQ-000740.v6
06 Oct, 15:15Sunderland v BrightonPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 63%89—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000742
08 Oct, 15:10Sunderland v BrightonPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 59%881.79ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000741.v2
10 Oct, 12:10Aston Villa v BrentfordPremier League1X22Model probability 40%972.52ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000746.v10
06 Oct, 15:15Aston Villa v BrentfordPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 60%94—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000748
08 Oct, 15:10Aston Villa v BrentfordPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 55%921.67ens_v0.3WINMQ-000747.v2
10 Oct, 11:08Chelsea v BournemouthPremier League1X21Model probability 40%751.79ens_v0.3WINMQ-000743.v11
09 Oct, 00:09Chelsea v BournemouthPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 60%75—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000745.v2
10 Oct, 09:11Chelsea v BournemouthPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 56%751.59ens_v0.3WINMQ-000744.v5
09 Oct, 00:09Arsenal v LeedsPremier League1X21Model probability 57%901.38ens_v0.3WINMQ-000720.v3
06 Oct, 12:07Arsenal v LeedsPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 53%88—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000722
10 Oct, 09:11Arsenal v LeedsPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 55%922.01ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000721.v7
06 Oct, 15:15Ipswich v FulhamPremier League1X22Model probability 38%712.50ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000749
06 Oct, 15:15Ipswich v FulhamPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 58%71—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000751
06 Oct, 15:15Ipswich v FulhamPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%711.73ens_v0.3WINMQ-000750
10 Oct, 12:10Man United v TottenhamPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 51%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000769.v6
10 Oct, 12:10Man United v TottenhamPremier League1X21Model probability 69%901.72ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000767.v10
16 Sept, 18:09Fulham v Man UnitedPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 56%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000695
16 Sept, 18:09Fulham v Man UnitedPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 52%901.60ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000694
16 Sept, 15:15Bournemouth v LiverpoolPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 60%93—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000682
20 Sept, 06:09Bournemouth v LiverpoolPremier League1X21Model probability 42%933.14ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000680.v2
20 Sept, 06:09Bournemouth v LiverpoolPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 55%931.49ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000681.v2
20 Sept, 06:09Leeds v Crystal PalacePremier League1X21Model probability 58%891.70ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000674.v3
20 Sept, 06:09Leeds v Crystal PalacePremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%89—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000676.v2
19 Sept, 09:10Leeds v Crystal PalacePremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 60%881.72ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000675.v2
16 Sept, 15:15Man City v SunderlandPremier League1X21Model probability 70%881.29ens_v0.3WINMQ-000677
16 Sept, 15:15Man City v SunderlandPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 52%88—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000679
16 Sept, 15:15Man City v SunderlandPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 54%881.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000678
16 Sept, 18:09Fulham v Man UnitedPremier League1X22Model probability 48%902.00ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000693
15 Sept, 21:17Brentford v ChelseaPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 61%921.45ens_v0.3WINMQ-000585.v2
15 Sept, 18:08Brighton v ArsenalPremier League1X22Model probability 51%891.71ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000615
15 Sept, 18:08Everton v IpswichPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 58%861.74ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000612
19 Sept, 09:10Newcastle v HullPremier League1X21Model probability 38%541.60ens_v0.3WINMQ-000614.v2
15 Sept, 18:08Nott'm Forest v CoventryPremier League1X21Model probability 65%711.65ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000630
15 Sept, 18:08Brighton v ArsenalPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 51%892.06ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000616
15 Sept, 18:08Brighton v ArsenalPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%89—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000617
15 Sept, 18:08Everton v IpswichPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 61%86—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000613
19 Sept, 09:06Tottenham v Aston VillaPremier League1X21Model probability 40%751.94ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000587.v4
17 Sept, 12:40Tottenham v Aston VillaPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 52%75—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000589.v2
15 Sept, 12:14Tottenham v Aston VillaPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 54%912.07ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000588
16 Sept, 21:11Brentford v ChelseaPremier League1X21Model probability 47%932.76ens_v0.3WINMQ-000584.v3
14 Sept, 21:11Brentford v ChelseaPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 63%94—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000586
15 Sept, 18:08Everton v IpswichPremier League1X21Model probability 53%861.76ens_v0.3WINMQ-000611
14 Sept, 06:11Leeds v NewcastlePremier League1X21Model probability 45%902.33ens_v0.3WINMQ-000525.v3
10 Sept, 21:14Leeds v NewcastlePremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000527
14 Sept, 15:14Leeds v NewcastlePremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 54%901.71ens_v0.3WINMQ-000526.v2
10 Sept, 06:08Liverpool v FulhamPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%92—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000422.v2
08 Sept, 18:06Crystal Palace v IpswichPremier League1X21Model probability 49%851.88ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000417
08 Sept, 18:06Crystal Palace v IpswichPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 64%85—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000419
12 Sept, 12:09Crystal Palace v IpswichPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 61%891.72ens_v0.3WINMQ-000418.v2
08 Sept, 18:06Tottenham v EvertonPremier League1X21Model probability 36%762.02ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000442
08 Sept, 18:06Tottenham v EvertonPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%76—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000444
12 Sept, 09:13Tottenham v EvertonPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 53%762.12ens_v0.3WINMQ-000443.v3
10 Sept, 18:08Bournemouth v BrentfordPremier League1X21Model probability 48%932.46ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000423.v2
08 Sept, 18:06Bournemouth v BrentfordPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000425
08 Sept, 18:06Bournemouth v BrentfordPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 55%931.63ens_v0.3WINMQ-000424
12 Sept, 09:13Sunderland v ArsenalPremier League1X22Model probability 55%861.58ens_v0.3WINMQ-000463.v2
10 Sept, 06:08Sunderland v ArsenalPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 55%86—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000465.v2
12 Sept, 09:13Sunderland v ArsenalPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 58%861.73ens_v0.3WINMQ-000464.v3
12 Sept, 09:13Liverpool v FulhamPremier League1X21Model probability 55%931.51ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000420.v2
10 Sept, 06:08Liverpool v FulhamPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 57%921.46ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000421.v2
08 Sept, 18:06Chelsea v HullPremier League1X21Model probability 44%711.23ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000426
09 Sept, 09:16Aston Villa v Nott'm ForestPremier League1X21Model probability 41%932.18ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000427.v2
09 Sept, 09:16Aston Villa v Nott'm ForestPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000429.v2
08 Sept, 18:06Aston Villa v Nott'm ForestPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 50%941.94ens_v0.3WINMQ-000428
12 Sept, 06:09Man United v Man CityPremier League1X21Model probability 40%913.15ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000482.v2
09 Sept, 18:07Man United v Man CityPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 60%90—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000484
09 Sept, 18:07Man United v Man CityPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 56%901.52ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000483
09 Sept, 18:07Coventry v BrightonPremier League1X22Model probability 48%661.86ens_v0.3WINMQ-000470
01 Sept, 09:58Arsenal v ChelseaPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 52%94—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000320
03 Sept, 16:48Arsenal v ChelseaPremier League1X21Model probability 65%901.69ens_v0.3WINMQ-000318.v2
05 Sept, 03:36Everton v Man UnitedPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 56%931.67ens_v0.3WINMQ-000302.v2
05 Sept, 03:36Everton v Man UnitedPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 62%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000303.v2
06 Sept, 12:13Everton v Man UnitedPremier League1X22Model probability 41%961.95ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000301.v3
06 Sept, 06:06Arsenal v ChelseaPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 54%911.79ens_v0.3WINMQ-000319.v4
01 Sept, 09:58Newcastle v BournemouthPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 56%941.61ens_v0.3WINMQ-000245
05 Sept, 06:06Hull v Aston VillaPremier League1X21Model probability 51%724.19ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000283.v2
05 Sept, 12:07Brighton v LeedsPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 54%931.76ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000266.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Nott'm Forest v TottenhamPremier League1X21Model probability 57%932.51ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000261
01 Sept, 09:58Nott'm Forest v TottenhamPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%93—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000263
05 Sept, 12:07Nott'm Forest v TottenhamPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%961.78ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000262.v4
03 Sept, 21:39Newcastle v BournemouthPremier League1X21Model probability 42%942.12ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000244.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Newcastle v BournemouthPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 60%94—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000246
03 Sept, 16:48Brighton v LeedsPremier League1X21Model probability 53%901.97ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000265.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Brighton v LeedsPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000267
05 Sept, 10:29Fulham v Crystal PalacePremier League1X21Model probability 53%932.17ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000271.v3
05 Sept, 06:06Brentford v SunderlandPremier League1X21Model probability 55%901.73ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000268.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Brentford v SunderlandPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%89—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000270
01 Sept, 09:58Brentford v SunderlandPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 52%891.83ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000269
05 Sept, 10:29Fulham v Crystal PalacePremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 51%931.86ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000272.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Fulham v Crystal PalacePremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 52%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000273
04 Sept, 15:12Man City v CoventryPremier League1X21Model probability 74%701.16ens_v0.3WINMQ-000264.v2
04 Sept, 12:26Ipswich v LiverpoolPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 70%831.41ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000236.v4
01 Sept, 09:58Ipswich v LiverpoolPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 70%84—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000237
03 Sept, 21:39Ipswich v LiverpoolPremier League1X22Model probability 49%831.49ens_v0.3WINMQ-000235.v3
30 Aug, 05:54Aston Villa v ArsenalPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%86—ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000187.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7
30 Aug, 12:29Aston Villa v ArsenalPremier League1X22Model probability 54%901.51ens_v0.3WINMQ-000185.v2.v3.v4
28 Aug, 08:56Aston Villa v ArsenalPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 51%851.79ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000186.v2
30 Aug, 05:54Man United v IpswichPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 58%821.54ens_v0.1WINMQ-000141.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
30 Aug, 12:29Man United v IpswichPremier League1X21Model probability 58%861.37ens_v0.3WINMQ-000140.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12
30 Aug, 05:54Man United v IpswichPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%82—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000142.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9
30 Aug, 05:54Leeds v BrentfordPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 52%821.93ens_v0.1WINMQ-000132.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
30 Aug, 12:29Chelsea v BrightonPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%771.61ens_v0.3WINMQ-000129.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
30 Aug, 12:29Leeds v BrentfordPremier League1X21Model probability 40%932.85ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000131.v2.v3
30 Aug, 05:54Leeds v BrentfordPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%82—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000133.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9
30 Aug, 12:29Sunderland v FulhamPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 55%921.79ens_v0.3WINMQ-000126.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
30 Aug, 12:29Sunderland v FulhamPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 51%92—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000127.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
30 Aug, 12:29Sunderland v FulhamPremier League1X21Model probability 41%922.37ens_v0.3WINMQ-000125.v2.v3
30 Aug, 12:29Chelsea v BrightonPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%77—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000130.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
29 Aug, 03:13Tottenham v NewcastlePremier League1X22Model probability 40%842.93ens_v0.1WINMQ-000077.v2.v3
28 Aug, 08:42Bournemouth v EvertonPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 54%82—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000069
29 Aug, 03:13Bournemouth v EvertonPremier League1X21Model probability 48%872.05ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000067.v2.v3
28 Aug, 08:56Tottenham v NewcastlePremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 55%861.61ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000078.v2
28 Aug, 08:42Tottenham v NewcastlePremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%83—ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000079
28 Aug, 08:56Bournemouth v EvertonPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 50%851.85ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000068.v2
29 Aug, 06:10Coventry v HullPremier League1X22Model probability 44%574.72ens_v0.1WINMQ-000070.v2.v3.v4
29 Aug, 06:10Liverpool v Nott'm ForestPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 56%871.53ens_v0.1WINMQ-000054.v2.v3
28 Aug, 08:42Liverpool v Nott'm ForestPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 58%83—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000055
29 Aug, 06:10Liverpool v Nott'm ForestPremier League1X21Model probability 52%871.48ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000053.v2.v3
28 Aug, 08:56Crystal Palace v Man CityPremier League1X22Model probability 54%851.67ens_v0.1WINMQ-000047.v2
28 Aug, 08:42Crystal Palace v Man CityPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 51%82—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000049
28 Aug, 08:56Crystal Palace v Man CityPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 50%852.15ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000048.v2