WinPIQKnow Before You Pick.
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🇺🇸 Showing content for United States · by location · Change21+ only · analysis and probability estimates, not financial advice · help: 1-800-GAMBLER

Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

140
settled signals
76
wins
64
losses
54.3%
hit rate
2.03
avg. price at lock
2.5%
ROI, 1 unit each · 95 of 140 priced
87
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
50
predictions / signals
140 / not counted
priced / unpriced
95 / 45
as of
2026-10-14 13:04Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 13:03Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13 · every figure here is Serie A only

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
50.0%
6 predictions · avg 38.0%
rated 40–50%
36.4%
22 predictions · avg 43.0%
rated 50–60%
53.6%
97 predictions · avg 54.1%
rated 60–70%
84.6%
13 predictions · avg 62.6%
rated 70–80%
100.0%
2 predictions · avg 70.8%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 33 shown

Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided

50 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.

publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
08 Oct, 18:09Atalanta v VeneziaSerie A1X21Model probability 58%881.56ens_v0.3WINMQ-000842
12 Oct, 18:09Torino v UdineseSerie A1X21Model probability 40%952.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000845.v5
11 Oct, 11:08Lazio v MonzaSerie A1X21Model probability 48%881.72ens_v0.3WINMQ-000817.v3
10 Oct, 21:12Como v RomaSerie A1X21Model probability 40%762.51ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000801.v5
10 Oct, 15:14Napoli v FrosinoneSerie A1X21Model probability 41%571.51ens_v0.3WINMQ-000787.v8
10 Oct, 15:14Inter v ParmaSerie A1X21Model probability 71%951.17ens_v0.3WINMQ-000758.v2
19 Sept, 09:10Parma v GenoaSerie A1X21Model probability 39%923.11ens_v0.3WINMQ-000668.v2
20 Sept, 06:09Juventus v AtalantaSerie A1X21Model probability 52%941.70ens_v0.3WINMQ-000696.v2
19 Sept, 09:10Fiorentina v NapoliSerie A1X21Model probability 41%753.23ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000663.v2
16 Sept, 21:11Milan v LecceSerie A1X21Model probability 52%931.27ens_v0.3WINMQ-000704
16 Sept, 21:11Udinese v CagliariSerie A1X21Model probability 36%752.23ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000596.v4
16 Sept, 00:08Roma v InterSerie A1X21Model probability 41%762.67ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000624.v2
19 Sept, 09:10Bologna v TorinoSerie A1X21Model probability 49%941.94ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000593.v3
12 Sept, 06:09Como v ParmaSerie A1X21Model probability 61%941.23ens_v0.3WINMQ-000499.v2
14 Sept, 15:14Inter v UdineseSerie A1X21Model probability 71%921.20ens_v0.3WINMQ-000522.v10
12 Sept, 09:13Atalanta v CagliariSerie A1X21Model probability 47%931.69ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000451.v4
13 Sept, 09:14Lecce v MonzaSerie A1X21Model probability 42%842.81ens_v0.3WINMQ-000471.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Udinese v LazioSerie A1X21Model probability 41%812.85ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000356
07 Sept, 16:02Cagliari v LecceSerie A1X21Model probability 42%932.13ens_v0.3WINMQ-000340.v4
06 Sept, 06:06Parma v MonzaSerie A1X21Model probability 42%692.75ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000305.v3
06 Sept, 06:06Juventus v MilanSerie A1X21Model probability 52%932.11ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000334.v3
01 Sept, 09:58Bologna v SassuoloSerie A1X21Model probability 42%871.94ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000324
06 Sept, 12:13Frosinone v VeneziaSerie A1X21Model probability 52%752.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000308.v3
01 Sept, 09:58Inter v NapoliSerie A1X21Model probability 55%921.67ens_v0.3WINMQ-000280
05 Sept, 15:06Roma v AtalantaSerie A1X21Model probability 57%921.67ens_v0.3WINMQ-000297.v2
05 Sept, 12:07Fiorentina v TorinoSerie A1X21Model probability 42%962.03ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000247.v2
30 Aug, 12:29Atalanta v BolognaSerie A1X21Model probability 48%911.90ens_v0.3WINMQ-000182.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9
30 Aug, 16:14Lazio v GenoaSerie A1X21Model probability 44%932.32ens_v0.3WINMQ-000158.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12.v13
30 Aug, 16:02Napoli v ComoSerie A1X21Model probability 42%922.51ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000144.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12
29 Aug, 18:15Juventus v ParmaSerie A1X21Model probability 62%861.22ens_v0.1WINMQ-000105.v2.v3.v4.v5
28 Aug, 08:56Fiorentina v FrosinoneSerie A1X21Model probability 40%661.62ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000086.v2
28 Aug, 08:56Sassuolo v TorinoSerie A1X21Model probability 43%822.25ens_v0.1WINMQ-000080.v2
28 Aug, 08:56Milan v VeneziaSerie A1X21Model probability 58%811.46ens_v0.1WINMQ-000041.v2