Verified record
Every settled prediction, wins and losses, computed from the append-only ledger. Nothing is edited after publication; corrections create a new version.
83
settled predictions
49
wins
34
losses
59.0%
hit rate
1.64
avg. price at lock
0.502
Brier
10.0%
ROI, 1 unit each
—
CLV · not tracked yet
Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.
Stored before kickoff with a proof hash; locked at kickoff; corrections create a new version with a full audit trail. No cherry-picking is possible.
Probability bucket performance
Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.
rated 40–50%
50.0%
2 predictions · avg 41.6%
rated 50–60%
100.0%
8 predictions · avg 54.5%
rated 60–70%
100.0%
3 predictions · avg 62.9%
When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?
Backtest0 matches
0 matches
Live, settled83 matches
30–40%38% → 0% n=2
40–50%44% → 47% n=17
50–60%54% → 60% n=47
60–70%65% → 77% n=13
70–80%72% → 67% n=3
80–90%82% → 100% n=1
predicted observed
By confidence
| confidence | n | hit rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| <50 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.452 |
| 50-69 | 16 | 50.0% | 0.573 |
| 70-84 | 40 | 65.0% | 0.487 |
| 85+ | 25 | 52.0% | 0.486 |
Show me the receipts 4 shown
| published | match | pick | prob. | conf. | price at lock | model | result | proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug, 18:15 | Juventus v ParmaSerie A | 1 | Model probability 62% | 86 | 1.22 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000105.v2.v3.v4.v5 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Sassuolo v TorinoSerie A | 1 | Model probability 43% | 82 | 2.25 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000080.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Fiorentina v FrosinoneSerie A | 1 | Model probability 40% | 66 | 1.62 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000086.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Milan v VeneziaSerie A | 1 | Model probability 58% | 81 | 1.46 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000041.v2 |