WinPIQKnow Before You Pick.
Sign in
🇺🇸 Showing content for United States · by location · Change21+ only · analysis and probability estimates, not financial advice · help: 1-800-GAMBLER

Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

80
settled signals
50
wins
30
losses
62.5%
hit rate
1.64
avg. price at lock
-3.3%
ROI, 1 unit each · 56 of 80 priced
80
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-30 → 2026-10-13
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
32
predictions / signals
80 / not counted
priced / unpriced
56 / 24
as of
2026-10-14 14:05Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 14:03Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-30 and 2026-10-13 · every figure here is Israeli Premier League only

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
100.0%
1 predictions · avg 37.0%
rated 40–50%
100.0%
3 predictions · avg 46.5%
rated 50–60%
100.0%
32 predictions · avg 53.8%
rated 60–70%
100.0%
11 predictions · avg 64.8%
rated 70–80%
100.0%
3 predictions · avg 71.7%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 50 shown

Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided

32 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.

publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
10 Oct, 09:11Hapoel Katamon v Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 66%801.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000771.v3
07 Oct, 12:08Hapoel Katamon v Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier League1X22Model probability 49%811.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000770.v2
06 Oct, 18:06Hapoel Katamon v Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 68%77—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000772
09 Oct, 03:12Hapoel Ramat Gan v Beitar JerusalemIsraeli Premier League1X22Model probability 54%701.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000776.v3
06 Oct, 18:06Hapoel Haifa v Maccabi Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 51%721.90ens_v0.3WINMQ-000786
06 Oct, 18:06Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%80—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000779
06 Oct, 18:06Ironi Tiberias v Hapoel Beer ShevaIsraeli Premier League1X22Model probability 49%831.36ens_v0.3WINMQ-000780
08 Oct, 15:10Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League1X22Model probability 53%801.48ens_v0.3WINMQ-000777.v3
06 Oct, 18:06Maccabi Tel Aviv v Bnei SakhninIsraeli Premier LeagueBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 52%84—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000785
06 Oct, 18:06Hapoel Petah Tikva v Maccabi NetanyaIsraeli Premier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 51%66—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000775
06 Oct, 18:06Hapoel Petah Tikva v Maccabi NetanyaIsraeli Premier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 56%662.10ens_v0.3WINMQ-000774
16 Sept, 18:09Hapoel Beer Sheva v Ironi Kiryat ShmonaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 64%841.36ens_v0.3WINMQ-000632.v3
17 Sept, 12:40Beitar Jerusalem v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 53%831.60ens_v0.3WINMQ-000635.v3
15 Sept, 18:08Beitar Jerusalem v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%81—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000637
17 Sept, 12:40Beitar Jerusalem v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 54%831.53ens_v0.3WINMQ-000636.v3
16 Sept, 06:09Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 62%841.40ens_v0.3WINMQ-000643.v2
15 Sept, 18:08Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier LeagueBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 58%82—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000645
19 Sept, 15:10Maccabi Haifa v Ironi TiberiasIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 53%831.22ens_v0.3WINMQ-000638.v4
15 Sept, 18:08Maccabi Haifa v Ironi TiberiasIsraeli Premier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 62%80—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000640
16 Sept, 18:09Maccabi Haifa v Ironi TiberiasIsraeli Premier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 61%831.53ens_v0.3WINMQ-000639.v3
16 Sept, 18:09Maccabi Netanya v Maccabi Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League1X22Model probability 54%841.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000646.v2
15 Sept, 18:08Maccabi Netanya v Maccabi Tel AvivIsraeli Premier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 69%82—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000648
16 Sept, 18:09Maccabi Netanya v Maccabi Tel AvivIsraeli Premier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 68%841.48ens_v0.3WINMQ-000647.v2
10 Sept, 18:08Ironi Tiberias v Hapoel KatamonIsraeli Premier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 56%79—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000521
15 Sept, 12:14Beitar Jerusalem v Maccabi Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 53%711.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000508.v3
14 Sept, 06:11Ironi Tiberias v Hapoel KatamonIsraeli Premier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%832.20ens_v0.3WINMQ-000520.v2
13 Sept, 06:08Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 42%832.10ens_v0.3WINMQ-000505.v2
13 Sept, 06:08Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 63%831.70ens_v0.3WINMQ-000517.v2
14 Sept, 06:11Hapoel Haifa v Bnei SakhninIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 54%841.80ens_v0.3WINMQ-000509.v3
14 Sept, 12:09Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 54%841.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000506.v6
10 Sept, 18:08Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%80—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000507
12 Sept, 06:09Hapoel Petah Tikva v Hapoel Beer ShevaIsraeli Premier League1X22Model probability 54%841.44ens_v0.3WINMQ-000512.v2
06 Sept, 18:06Bnei Sakhnin v Beitar JerusalemIsraeli Premier League1X22Model probability 54%821.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000350.v4
07 Sept, 16:32Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Ramat GanIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 56%691.33ens_v0.3WINMQ-000346.v4
05 Sept, 03:36Bnei Sakhnin v Beitar JerusalemIsraeli Premier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 51%822.15ens_v0.3WINMQ-000351.v3
01 Sept, 09:58Hapoel Beer Sheva v Maccabi Tel AvivIsraeli Premier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 70%80—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000355
05 Sept, 10:29Hapoel Beer Sheva v Maccabi Tel AvivIsraeli Premier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 73%841.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000354.v3
04 Sept, 12:26Maccabi Netanya v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 55%80—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000345.v2
02 Sept, 18:07Maccabi Haifa v Hapoel Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 55%85—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000292.v2
03 Sept, 16:48Maccabi Haifa v Hapoel Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 54%851.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000291.v3
02 Sept, 18:07Maccabi Haifa v Hapoel Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 53%851.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000290.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Hapoel Katamon v Ironi Kiryat ShmonaIsraeli Premier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 51%76—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000288
03 Sept, 16:48Hapoel Tel Aviv v Beitar JerusalemIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 37%652.30ens_v0.3WINMQ-000217.v4
02 Sept, 00:10Hapoel Beer Sheva v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%821.53ens_v0.3WINMQ-000215.v3
01 Sept, 09:40Hapoel Beer Sheva v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 52%82—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000216.v2
30 Aug, 05:54Maccabi Tel Aviv v Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 72%811.48ens_v0.1WINMQ-000212.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8
30 Aug, 12:29Maccabi Tel Aviv v Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 53%841.67ens_v0.3WINMQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
30 Aug, 05:54Maccabi Tel Aviv v Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 70%81—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000213.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7
30 Aug, 05:54Hapoel Haifa v Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 60%802.08ens_v0.1WINMQ-000209.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
30 Aug, 05:54Hapoel Haifa v Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier LeagueBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 53%80—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000210.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9