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🇺🇸 Showing content for United States · by location · Change21+ only · analysis and probability estimates, not financial advice · help: 1-800-GAMBLER

Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

115
settled signals
69
wins
46
losses
60.0%
hit rate
1.85
avg. price at lock
8.5%
ROI, 1 unit each · 80 of 115 priced
88
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-29 → 2026-10-12
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
45
predictions / signals
115 / not counted
priced / unpriced
80 / 35
as of
2026-10-14 13:02Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 07:54Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-12 · every figure here is Ligue 1 only

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
100.0%
3 predictions · avg 38.7%
rated 40–50%
100.0%
13 predictions · avg 44.5%
rated 50–60%
100.0%
35 predictions · avg 54.2%
rated 60–70%
100.0%
18 predictions · avg 63.4%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 69 shown

Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided

45 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.

publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
11 Oct, 06:09Rennes v AuxerreLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 63%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000826.v2
07 Oct, 18:09Nice v StrasbourgLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000813
11 Oct, 11:08Nice v StrasbourgLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%931.58ens_v0.3WINMQ-000812.v2
11 Oct, 06:09Rennes v AuxerreLigue 11X21Model probability 55%931.43ens_v0.3WINMQ-000824.v2
07 Oct, 18:09Rennes v AuxerreLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 62%921.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000825
10 Oct, 09:11Lorient v Paris FCLigue 11X21Model probability 37%723.60ens_v0.3WINMQ-000791.v3
06 Oct, 21:13Brest v AngersLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 54%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000790
07 Oct, 18:09Brest v AngersLigue 11X21Model probability 42%901.96ens_v0.3WINMQ-000788.v3
06 Oct, 21:13Lorient v Paris FCLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 52%891.85ens_v0.3WINMQ-000792
10 Oct, 12:10Paris SG v Le MansLigue 11X21Model probability 62%761.10ens_v0.3WINMQ-000794.v4
06 Oct, 21:13Monaco v ToulouseLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 62%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000797
08 Oct, 21:14Monaco v ToulouseLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 57%901.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000796.v2
10 Oct, 15:14Lille v Le HavreLigue 11X21Model probability 52%941.53ens_v0.3WINMQ-000755.v2
06 Oct, 15:15Lille v Le HavreLigue 1Both teams to scoreNoModel probability 51%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000757
06 Oct, 15:15Lille v Le HavreLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 54%912.25ens_v0.3WINMQ-000756
09 Oct, 15:13Lens v LyonLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 60%901.51ens_v0.3WINMQ-000717.v2
09 Oct, 15:13Lens v LyonLigue 11X21Model probability 42%902.59ens_v0.3WINMQ-000716.v2
06 Oct, 06:06Lens v LyonLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 64%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000718
20 Sept, 18:06Marseille v Paris SGLigue 11X22Model probability 51%941.42ens_v0.3WINMQ-000707.v4
19 Sept, 09:10Auxerre v BrestLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 57%911.78ens_v0.3WINMQ-000672.v2
16 Sept, 15:15Auxerre v BrestLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 61%74—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000673
20 Sept, 09:10Auxerre v BrestLigue 11X21Model probability 40%933.04ens_v0.3WINMQ-000671.v3
20 Sept, 06:09Marseille v Paris SGLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%89—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000709.v2
19 Sept, 09:10Marseille v Paris SGLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 57%891.37ens_v0.3WINMQ-000708.v2
19 Sept, 09:10Paris FC v StrasbourgLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 61%891.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000622.v2
15 Sept, 18:08Monaco v LensLigue 11X21Model probability 42%912.04ens_v0.3WINMQ-000575.v2
14 Sept, 21:11Monaco v LensLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 67%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000577
14 Sept, 21:11Monaco v LensLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 64%911.54ens_v0.3WINMQ-000576
15 Sept, 21:17Lyon v RennesLigue 11X21Model probability 49%922.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000654
15 Sept, 21:17Lyon v RennesLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 61%921.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000655
19 Sept, 09:10Paris FC v StrasbourgLigue 11X21Model probability 47%891.86ens_v0.3WINMQ-000621.v2
15 Sept, 18:08Paris FC v StrasbourgLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 64%87—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000623
19 Sept, 09:10Angers v TroyesLigue 11X21Model probability 42%712.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000653.v2
15 Sept, 21:17Le Mans v LorientLigue 11X21Model probability 41%722.68ens_v0.3WINMQ-000649
19 Sept, 09:10Toulouse v Le HavreLigue 11X21Model probability 40%931.70ens_v0.3WINMQ-000650.v3
19 Sept, 09:10Toulouse v Le HavreLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000652.v2
12 Sept, 09:13Auxerre v NiceLigue 11X21Model probability 42%922.76ens_v0.3WINMQ-000454.v2
09 Sept, 18:07Lille v TroyesLigue 11X21Model probability 53%701.40ens_v0.3WINMQ-000474
08 Sept, 18:06Strasbourg v MonacoLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 70%92—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000435
09 Sept, 09:16Lorient v ToulouseLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%89—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000450
12 Sept, 15:14Lorient v ToulouseLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 51%891.85ens_v0.3WINMQ-000449.v3
12 Sept, 09:13Brest v Paris SGLigue 11X22Model probability 49%931.25ens_v0.3WINMQ-000493.v2
09 Sept, 09:16Auxerre v NiceLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 52%921.82ens_v0.3WINMQ-000455
12 Sept, 06:09Le Havre v AngersLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 56%931.84ens_v0.3WINMQ-000458.v2
11 Sept, 09:10Rennes v MarseilleLigue 11X21Model probability 47%931.98ens_v0.3WINMQ-000396.v2
06 Sept, 06:06Marseille v Paris FCLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%891.67ens_v0.3WINMQ-000332.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Marseille v Paris FCLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%89—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000333
06 Sept, 14:06Angers v RennesLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 57%881.60ens_v0.3WINMQ-000316.v3
01 Sept, 09:58Angers v RennesLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 60%86—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000317
01 Sept, 09:58Angers v RennesLigue 11X22Model probability 48%861.86ens_v0.3WINMQ-000315
01 Sept, 09:58Le Havre v BrestLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 55%92—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000295
01 Sept, 09:58Le Havre v BrestLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 50%922.06ens_v0.3WINMQ-000294
04 Sept, 09:57Lyon v AuxerreLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 58%931.59ens_v0.3WINMQ-000227.v2
04 Sept, 09:57Paris SG v MonacoLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 62%931.35ens_v0.3WINMQ-000242.v2
04 Sept, 08:39Lyon v AuxerreLigue 11X21Model probability 53%931.46ens_v0.3WINMQ-000226.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Lyon v AuxerreLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000228
01 Sept, 09:58Paris SG v MonacoLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 60%92—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000243
03 Sept, 16:48Toulouse v LilleLigue 11X22Model probability 40%921.95ens_v0.3WINMQ-000220.v3
03 Sept, 07:27Toulouse v LilleLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 54%921.85ens_v0.3WINMQ-000221.v2
30 Aug, 18:14Monaco v MarseilleLigue 11X21Model probability 45%962.23ens_v0.3WINMQ-000164.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12
30 Aug, 12:18Rennes v Le MansLigue 11X21Model probability 52%711.42ens_v0.3WINMQ-000139.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9
30 Aug, 09:56Paris FC v NiceLigue 11X21Model probability 53%852.06ens_v0.2WINMQ-000134.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
30 Aug, 12:29Paris FC v NiceLigue 1Both teams to scoreNoModel probability 51%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000136.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
29 Aug, 18:15Lyon v Le HavreLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 54%852.11ens_v0.1WINMQ-000110.v2.v3.v4
29 Aug, 18:15Brest v ToulouseLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 54%871.95ens_v0.1WINMQ-000114.v2.v3.v4
29 Aug, 18:15Brest v ToulouseLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 58%87—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000115.v2.v3
28 Aug, 08:56Strasbourg v LensLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 70%861.63ens_v0.1WINMQ-000075.v2
28 Aug, 08:42Strasbourg v LensLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 69%83—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000076
28 Aug, 08:42Lille v Paris SGLigue 1Both teams to scoreYesModel probability 51%66—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000046