Verified record
Every settled prediction, wins and losses, computed from the append-only ledger. Nothing is edited after publication; corrections create a new version.
83
settled predictions
49
wins
34
losses
59.0%
hit rate
2.22
avg. price at lock
0.502
Brier
10.0%
ROI, 1 unit each
—
CLV · not tracked yet
Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.
Stored before kickoff with a proof hash; locked at kickoff; corrections create a new version with a full audit trail. No cherry-picking is possible.
Probability bucket performance
Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.
rated 40–50%
66.7%
3 predictions · avg 44.1%
rated 50–60%
50.0%
10 predictions · avg 54.0%
When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?
Backtest0 matches
0 matches
Live, settled83 matches
30–40%38% → 0% n=2
40–50%44% → 47% n=17
50–60%54% → 60% n=47
60–70%65% → 77% n=13
70–80%72% → 67% n=3
80–90%82% → 100% n=1
predicted observed
By confidence
| confidence | n | hit rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| <50 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.452 |
| 50-69 | 16 | 50.0% | 0.573 |
| 70-84 | 40 | 65.0% | 0.487 |
| 85+ | 25 | 52.0% | 0.486 |
Show me the receipts 13 shown
| published | match | pick | prob. | conf. | price at lock | model | result | proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug, 06:10 | Coventry v HullPremier League | 2 | Model probability 44% | 57 | 4.72 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000070.v2.v3.v4 |
| 28 Aug, 08:42 | Bournemouth v EvertonPremier League | Yes | Model probability 54% | 82 | — | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000069 |
| 28 Aug, 08:42 | Tottenham v NewcastlePremier League | Yes | Model probability 59% | 83 | — | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000079 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Bournemouth v EvertonPremier League | Over | Model probability 50% | 85 | 1.85 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000068.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Tottenham v NewcastlePremier League | Over | Model probability 55% | 86 | 1.61 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000078.v2 |
| 29 Aug, 03:13 | Bournemouth v EvertonPremier League | 1 | Model probability 48% | 87 | 2.05 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000067.v2.v3 |
| 29 Aug, 03:13 | Tottenham v NewcastlePremier League | 2 | Model probability 40% | 84 | 2.93 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000077.v2.v3 |
| 28 Aug, 08:42 | Liverpool v Nott'm ForestPremier League | Yes | Model probability 58% | 83 | — | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000055 |
| 29 Aug, 06:10 | Liverpool v Nott'm ForestPremier League | 1 | Model probability 52% | 87 | 1.48 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000053.v2.v3 |
| 29 Aug, 06:10 | Liverpool v Nott'm ForestPremier League | Over | Model probability 56% | 87 | 1.53 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000054.v2.v3 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Crystal Palace v Man CityPremier League | 2 | Model probability 54% | 85 | 1.67 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000047.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Crystal Palace v Man CityPremier League | Under | Model probability 50% | 85 | 2.15 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000048.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:42 | Crystal Palace v Man CityPremier League | Yes | Model probability 51% | 82 | — | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000049 |