Verified record
Every settled prediction, wins and losses, computed from the append-only ledger. Nothing is edited after publication; corrections create a new version.
83
settled predictions
49
wins
34
losses
59.0%
hit rate
1.63
avg. price at lock
0.502
Brier
10.0%
ROI, 1 unit each
—
CLV · not tracked yet
Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.
Stored before kickoff with a proof hash; locked at kickoff; corrections create a new version with a full audit trail. No cherry-picking is possible.
Probability bucket performance
Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.
rated 30–40%
0.0%
1 predictions · avg 36.2%
rated 40–50%
0.0%
2 predictions · avg 43.4%
rated 50–60%
40.0%
5 predictions · avg 56.8%
rated 60–70%
83.3%
6 predictions · avg 65.1%
rated 70–80%
100.0%
2 predictions · avg 72.6%
rated 80–100%
100.0%
1 predictions · avg 81.9%
When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?
Backtest0 matches
0 matches
Live, settled83 matches
30–40%38% → 0% n=2
40–50%44% → 47% n=17
50–60%54% → 60% n=47
60–70%65% → 77% n=13
70–80%72% → 67% n=3
80–90%82% → 100% n=1
predicted observed
By confidence
| confidence | n | hit rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| <50 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.452 |
| 50-69 | 16 | 50.0% | 0.573 |
| 70-84 | 40 | 65.0% | 0.487 |
| 85+ | 25 | 52.0% | 0.486 |
Show me the receipts 17 shown
| published | match | pick | prob. | conf. | price at lock | model | result | proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug, 09:32 | Dortmund v HamburgBundesliga | 1 | Model probability 67% | 82 | 1.36 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000087.v2.v3 |
| 28 Aug, 08:42 | RB Leipzig v M'gladbachBundesliga | Yes | Model probability 60% | 82 | — | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000058 |
| 28 Aug, 08:42 | Mainz v SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga | 1 | Model probability 52% | 64 | — | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000059 |
| 28 Aug, 08:42 | Union Berlin v Ein FrankfurtBundesliga | Yes | Model probability 65% | 66 | — | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000062 |
| 28 Aug, 08:42 | FC Koln v HoffenheimBundesliga | Yes | Model probability 68% | 79 | — | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000066 |
| 28 Aug, 08:42 | Dortmund v HamburgBundesliga | Yes | Model probability 55% | 78 | — | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000089 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Dortmund v HamburgBundesliga | Over | Model probability 60% | 81 | 1.47 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000088.v2 |
| 29 Aug, 03:13 | SV 07 Elversberg v LeverkusenBundesliga | 2 | Model probability 44% | 63 | — | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000063.v2 |
| 29 Aug, 03:13 | FC Koln v HoffenheimBundesliga | 2 | Model probability 43% | 80 | 2.29 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000064.v2.v3 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | RB Leipzig v M'gladbachBundesliga | 1 | Model probability 58% | 85 | 1.55 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000056.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | RB Leipzig v M'gladbachBundesliga | Over | Model probability 59% | 85 | 1.46 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000057.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Union Berlin v Ein FrankfurtBundesliga | 2 | Model probability 36% | 69 | 2.58 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000060.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Union Berlin v Ein FrankfurtBundesliga | Over | Model probability 63% | 69 | 1.63 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000061.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | FC Koln v HoffenheimBundesliga | Over | Model probability 67% | 82 | 1.53 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000065.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Bayern Munich v StuttgartBundesliga | 1 | Model probability 72% | 86 | 1.22 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000038.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:56 | Bayern Munich v StuttgartBundesliga | Over | Model probability 82% | 86 | 1.18 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000039.v2 |
| 28 Aug, 08:42 | Bayern Munich v StuttgartBundesliga | Yes | Model probability 74% | 83 | — | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000040 |