WinPIQKnow Before You Pick.
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🇺🇸 Showing content for United States · by location · Change21+ only · analysis and probability estimates, not financial advice · help: 1-800-GAMBLER

Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

131
settled signals
65
wins
66
losses
49.6%
hit rate
1.84
avg. price at lock
-16.0%
ROI, 1 unit each · 90 of 131 priced
85
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
50
predictions / signals
131 / not counted
priced / unpriced
90 / 41
as of
2026-10-14 13:02Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 07:54Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13 · every figure here is Premier League only

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
100.0%
2 predictions · avg 39.0%
rated 40–50%
100.0%
7 predictions · avg 44.9%
rated 50–60%
100.0%
48 predictions · avg 55.0%
rated 60–70%
100.0%
7 predictions · avg 63.4%
rated 70–80%
100.0%
1 predictions · avg 73.9%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 65 shown

Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided

50 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.

publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
09 Oct, 15:13Crystal Palace v Nott'm ForestPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 56%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000816.v3
11 Oct, 15:15Liverpool v Man CityPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 55%921.64ens_v0.3WINMQ-000829.v2
11 Oct, 12:12Liverpool v Man CityPremier League1X22Model probability 53%892.14ens_v0.3WINMQ-000828.v7
08 Oct, 21:14Crystal Palace v Nott'm ForestPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%911.91ens_v0.3WINMQ-000815.v3
09 Oct, 00:09Arsenal v LeedsPremier League1X21Model probability 57%901.38ens_v0.3WINMQ-000720.v3
06 Oct, 15:15Ipswich v FulhamPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 58%71—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000751
10 Oct, 12:10Man United v TottenhamPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 51%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000769.v6
06 Oct, 15:15Ipswich v FulhamPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%711.73ens_v0.3WINMQ-000750
10 Oct, 11:08Sunderland v BrightonPremier League1X22Model probability 51%882.32ens_v0.3WINMQ-000740.v6
06 Oct, 15:15Aston Villa v BrentfordPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 60%94—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000748
08 Oct, 15:10Aston Villa v BrentfordPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 55%921.67ens_v0.3WINMQ-000747.v2
10 Oct, 11:08Chelsea v BournemouthPremier League1X21Model probability 40%751.79ens_v0.3WINMQ-000743.v11
09 Oct, 00:09Chelsea v BournemouthPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 60%75—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000745.v2
10 Oct, 09:11Chelsea v BournemouthPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 56%751.59ens_v0.3WINMQ-000744.v5
16 Sept, 15:15Man City v SunderlandPremier League1X21Model probability 70%881.29ens_v0.3WINMQ-000677
16 Sept, 15:15Man City v SunderlandPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 54%881.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000678
16 Sept, 18:09Fulham v Man UnitedPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 56%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000695
15 Sept, 21:17Brentford v ChelseaPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 61%921.45ens_v0.3WINMQ-000585.v2
16 Sept, 21:11Brentford v ChelseaPremier League1X21Model probability 47%932.76ens_v0.3WINMQ-000584.v3
15 Sept, 18:08Everton v IpswichPremier League1X21Model probability 53%861.76ens_v0.3WINMQ-000611
17 Sept, 12:40Tottenham v Aston VillaPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 52%75—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000589.v2
19 Sept, 09:10Newcastle v HullPremier League1X21Model probability 38%541.60ens_v0.3WINMQ-000614.v2
10 Sept, 21:14Leeds v NewcastlePremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000527
14 Sept, 06:11Leeds v NewcastlePremier League1X21Model probability 45%902.33ens_v0.3WINMQ-000525.v3
14 Sept, 15:14Leeds v NewcastlePremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 54%901.71ens_v0.3WINMQ-000526.v2
12 Sept, 09:13Tottenham v EvertonPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 53%762.12ens_v0.3WINMQ-000443.v3
08 Sept, 18:06Crystal Palace v IpswichPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 64%85—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000419
12 Sept, 12:09Crystal Palace v IpswichPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 61%891.72ens_v0.3WINMQ-000418.v2
08 Sept, 18:06Bournemouth v BrentfordPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000425
08 Sept, 18:06Bournemouth v BrentfordPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 55%931.63ens_v0.3WINMQ-000424
12 Sept, 09:13Sunderland v ArsenalPremier League1X22Model probability 55%861.58ens_v0.3WINMQ-000463.v2
10 Sept, 06:08Sunderland v ArsenalPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 55%86—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000465.v2
12 Sept, 09:13Sunderland v ArsenalPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 58%861.73ens_v0.3WINMQ-000464.v3
09 Sept, 09:16Aston Villa v Nott'm ForestPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000429.v2
08 Sept, 18:06Aston Villa v Nott'm ForestPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 50%941.94ens_v0.3WINMQ-000428
09 Sept, 18:07Coventry v BrightonPremier League1X22Model probability 48%661.86ens_v0.3WINMQ-000470
06 Sept, 06:06Arsenal v ChelseaPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 54%911.79ens_v0.3WINMQ-000319.v4
05 Sept, 03:36Everton v Man UnitedPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 62%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000303.v2
05 Sept, 03:36Everton v Man UnitedPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 56%931.67ens_v0.3WINMQ-000302.v2
03 Sept, 16:48Arsenal v ChelseaPremier League1X21Model probability 65%901.69ens_v0.3WINMQ-000318.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Arsenal v ChelseaPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 52%94—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000320
04 Sept, 15:12Man City v CoventryPremier League1X21Model probability 74%701.16ens_v0.3WINMQ-000264.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Brighton v LeedsPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000267
01 Sept, 09:58Newcastle v BournemouthPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 60%94—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000246
01 Sept, 09:58Newcastle v BournemouthPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 56%941.61ens_v0.3WINMQ-000245
01 Sept, 09:58Fulham v Crystal PalacePremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 52%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000273
01 Sept, 09:58Brentford v SunderlandPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%89—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000270
03 Sept, 21:39Ipswich v LiverpoolPremier League1X22Model probability 49%831.49ens_v0.3WINMQ-000235.v3
30 Aug, 12:29Aston Villa v ArsenalPremier League1X22Model probability 54%901.51ens_v0.3WINMQ-000185.v2.v3.v4
30 Aug, 05:54Man United v IpswichPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%82—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000142.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9
30 Aug, 12:29Man United v IpswichPremier League1X21Model probability 58%861.37ens_v0.3WINMQ-000140.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12
30 Aug, 05:54Man United v IpswichPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 58%821.54ens_v0.1WINMQ-000141.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
30 Aug, 12:29Sunderland v FulhamPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 55%921.79ens_v0.3WINMQ-000126.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
30 Aug, 05:54Leeds v BrentfordPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%82—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000133.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9
30 Aug, 05:54Leeds v BrentfordPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 52%821.93ens_v0.1WINMQ-000132.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
30 Aug, 12:29Chelsea v BrightonPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%77—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000130.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
30 Aug, 12:29Chelsea v BrightonPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%771.61ens_v0.3WINMQ-000129.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
30 Aug, 12:29Sunderland v FulhamPremier League1X21Model probability 41%922.37ens_v0.3WINMQ-000125.v2.v3
28 Aug, 08:42Bournemouth v EvertonPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 54%82—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000069
29 Aug, 06:10Coventry v HullPremier League1X22Model probability 44%574.72ens_v0.1WINMQ-000070.v2.v3.v4
29 Aug, 03:13Tottenham v NewcastlePremier League1X22Model probability 40%842.93ens_v0.1WINMQ-000077.v2.v3
28 Aug, 08:42Liverpool v Nott'm ForestPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 58%83—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000055
29 Aug, 06:10Liverpool v Nott'm ForestPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 56%871.53ens_v0.1WINMQ-000054.v2.v3
28 Aug, 08:56Crystal Palace v Man CityPremier League1X22Model probability 54%851.67ens_v0.1WINMQ-000047.v2
28 Aug, 08:42Crystal Palace v Man CityPremier LeagueBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 51%82—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000049