Verified record
Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.
140
settled signals
76
wins
64
losses
54.3%
hit rate
2.06
avg. price at lock
2.5%
ROI, 1 unit each · 95 of 140 priced
87
avg. confidence
What these numbers describe
- period
- 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
- cohort
- live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
- unique fixtures
- 50
- predictions / signals
- 140 / not counted
- priced / unpriced
- 95 / 45
- as of
- 2026-10-14 15:06Z
- ledger watermark
- 2026-10-14 15:03Z
- metric / record version
- perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.
Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13 · every figure here is Serie A only
Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Probability bucket performance
Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.
rated 30–40%
0.0%
3 predictions · avg 36.6%
rated 40–50%
0.0%
14 predictions · avg 42.8%
rated 50–60%
0.0%
45 predictions · avg 53.7%
rated 60–70%
0.0%
2 predictions · avg 63.7%
When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?
Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed
By confidence
| confidence | n | hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| <50 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 50-69 | 62 | 48.4% |
| 70-84 | 213 | 61.0% |
| 85+ | 483 | 58.2% |
Show me the receipts 59 shown
50 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.
| published | match | market | pick | prob. | conf. | price at lock | model | result | proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Oct, 21:13 |  Cagliari v  JuventusSerie A | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 56% | 90 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000840
|
| 07 Oct, 21:13 | Cagliari v JuventusSerie A | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 55% | 90 | 1.56 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000838
|
| 11 Oct, 15:15 |  Sassuolo v  MilanSerie A | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 40% | 94 | 1.89 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000831.v6
|
| 07 Oct, 18:09 |  Lecce v  BolognaSerie A | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 54% | 88 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000810
|
| 11 Oct, 00:09 | Lecce v BolognaSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 62% | 92 | 1.73 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000809.v3
|
| 10 Oct, 12:10 |  Como v  RomaSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 53% | 75 | 1.60 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000802.v3
|
| 10 Oct, 21:12 | Como v RomaSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 40% | 76 | 2.51 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000801.v5
|
| 07 Oct, 12:08 | Como v RomaSerie A | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 56% | 88 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000803
|
| 10 Oct, 12:10 |  Genoa v  FiorentinaSerie A | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 48% | 91 | 2.29 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000726.v4
|
| 09 Oct, 00:09 | Genoa v FiorentinaSerie A | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 51% | 87 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000728.v3
|
| 10 Oct, 09:11 | Genoa v FiorentinaSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 57% | 93 | 1.76 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000727.v3
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 |  Inter v  ParmaSerie A | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 52% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000760
|
| 16 Sept, 21:11 | Milan v LecceSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 54% | 93 | 2.25 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000705
|
| 16 Sept, 15:15 | Parma v GenoaSerie A | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 57% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000670
|
| 16 Sept, 15:15 | Parma v GenoaSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 66% | 93 | 1.54 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000669
|
| 19 Sept, 09:10 | Fiorentina v  NapoliSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 41% | 75 | 3.23 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000663.v2
|
| 16 Sept, 21:11 | Milan v LecceSerie A | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 50% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000706
|
| 16 Sept, 21:11 |  Udinese v CagliariSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 36% | 75 | 2.23 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000596.v4
|
| 19 Sept, 09:10 | Bologna v  TorinoSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 49% | 94 | 1.94 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000593.v3
|
| 15 Sept, 21:17 |  Venezia v  LazioSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 54% | 84 | 1.78 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000658
|
| 19 Sept, 15:10 | Venezia v LazioSerie A | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 57% | 84 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000659.v2
|
| 16 Sept, 00:08 | Roma v InterSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 41% | 76 | 2.67 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000624.v2
|
| 15 Sept, 18:08 | Udinese v CagliariSerie A | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 50% | 73 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000598
|
| 16 Sept, 15:15 |  Monza v SassuoloSerie A | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 51% | 84 | 2.32 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000578.v5
|
| 14 Sept, 09:12 | Torino v RomaSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 54% | 92 | 1.75 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000503.v4
|
| 14 Sept, 15:14 | Como v ParmaSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 58% | 97 | 2.40 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000500.v3
|
| 10 Sept, 18:08 | Como v ParmaSerie A | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 57% | 90 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000501
|
| 14 Sept, 14:05 | Torino v RomaSerie A | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 52% | 91 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000504.v5
|
| 09 Sept, 21:10 | Sassuolo v JuventusSerie A | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 51% | 86 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000492
|
| 12 Sept, 09:13 | Lazio v MilanSerie A | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 41% | 92 | 2.13 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000436.v2
|
| 08 Sept, 18:06 | Lazio v MilanSerie A | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 51% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000438
|
| 08 Sept, 18:06 | Lazio v MilanSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 58% | 93 | 1.62 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000437
|
| 12 Sept, 09:13 |  Atalanta v CagliariSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 47% | 93 | 1.69 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000451.v4
|
| 09 Sept, 09:16 | Atalanta v CagliariSerie A | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 52% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000453
|
| 09 Sept, 09:16 | Atalanta v CagliariSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 57% | 93 | 1.87 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000452
|
| 12 Sept, 06:09 | Sassuolo v JuventusSerie A | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 52% | 86 | 1.65 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000490.v5
|
| 11 Sept, 21:14 | Sassuolo v JuventusSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 55% | 87 | 1.98 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000491.v2
|
| 09 Sept, 18:07 | Lecce v MonzaSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 52% | 83 | 1.62 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000472
|
| 13 Sept, 15:11 | Napoli v BolognaSerie A | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 38% | 78 | 4.26 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000486.v10
|
| 09 Sept, 18:07 | Napoli v BolognaSerie A | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 52% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000488
|
| 04 Sept, 12:26 | Udinese v LazioSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 57% | 92 | 1.62 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000357.v2
|
| 01 Sept, 09:58 | Udinese v LazioSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 41% | 81 | 2.85 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000356
|
| 01 Sept, 09:58 | Udinese v LazioSerie A | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 51% | 81 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000358
|
| 01 Sept, 09:58 | Bologna v SassuoloSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 87 | 1.94 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000324
|
| 06 Sept, 06:06 | Juventus v MilanSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 52% | 93 | 2.11 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000334.v3
|
| 01 Sept, 09:58 | Juventus v MilanSerie A | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 52% | 90 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000336
|
| 06 Sept, 12:13 | Bologna v SassuoloSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 55% | 88 | 1.89 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000325.v2
|
| 05 Sept, 10:29 | Roma v AtalantaSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 50% | 92 | 2.12 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000298.v3
|
| 05 Sept, 10:29 | Fiorentina v TorinoSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 51% | 96 | 1.84 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000248.v4
|
| 05 Sept, 12:07 | Fiorentina v TorinoSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 96 | 2.03 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000247.v2
|
| 01 Sept, 09:58 | Genoa v ComoSerie A | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 55% | 88 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000234
|
| 04 Sept, 12:26 | Genoa v ComoSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 58% | 88 | 1.80 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000233.v3
|
| 30 Aug, 18:14 | Lecce v RomaSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 53% | 92 | 1.79 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000177.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12
Open the sealed proof · MQ-000177.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12 |
| 30 Aug, 18:14 | Atalanta v BolognaSerie A | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 53% | 93 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000184.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9
|
| 30 Aug, 05:54 | Cagliari v InterSerie A | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 55% | 87 | — | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000163.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9
|
| 30 Aug, 16:14 | Cagliari v InterSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 56% | 92 | 1.78 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000162.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12
Open the sealed proof · MQ-000162.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12 |
| 30 Aug, 16:02 | Napoli v ComoSerie A | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 92 | 2.51 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000144.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12
Open the sealed proof · MQ-000144.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12 |
| 30 Aug, 12:29 | Napoli v ComoSerie A | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 51% | 91 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000196.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
Open the sealed proof · MQ-000196.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10 |
| 30 Aug, 12:29 | Napoli v ComoSerie A | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 58% | 91 | 1.65 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000195.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
Open the sealed proof · MQ-000195.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11 |