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Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

107
settled signals
72
wins
35
losses
67.3%
hit rate
1.58
avg. price at lock
12.6%
ROI, 1 unit each · 74 of 107 priced
85
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-29 → 2026-10-11
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
45
predictions / signals
107 / not counted
priced / unpriced
74 / 33
as of
2026-10-14 15:06Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 15:03Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-11 · every figure here is Bundesliga only

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
100.0%
2 predictions · avg 38.5%
rated 40–50%
100.0%
8 predictions · avg 44.7%
rated 50–60%
100.0%
18 predictions · avg 57.2%
rated 60–70%
100.0%
34 predictions · avg 64.7%
rated 70–80%
100.0%
8 predictions · avg 73.6%
rated 80–100%
100.0%
2 predictions · avg 81.4%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 69 shown

Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided

45 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.

publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
11 Oct, 11:08FC Koln v M'gladbachBundesliga1X21Model probability 47%901.96ens_v0.3WINMQ-000820.v9
10 Oct, 21:12Freiburg v FC Schalke 04Bundesliga1X21Model probability 59%701.63ens_v0.3WINMQ-000827.v2
11 Oct, 11:08FC Koln v M'gladbachBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 66%901.53ens_v0.3WINMQ-000821.v7
10 Oct, 21:12FC Koln v M'gladbachBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 68%88—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000822.v2
08 Oct, 21:14Hoffenheim v HamburgBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 65%851.38ens_v0.3WINMQ-000735.v6
10 Oct, 09:11Augsburg v Bayern MunichBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 68%88—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000739.v5
10 Oct, 09:11Augsburg v Bayern MunichBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 73%881.14ens_v0.3WINMQ-000738.v5
10 Oct, 09:11RB Leipzig v Ein FrankfurtBundesliga1X21Model probability 59%931.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000764.v2
10 Oct, 09:11RB Leipzig v Ein FrankfurtBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 71%931.27ens_v0.3WINMQ-000765.v2
10 Oct, 03:13Union Berlin v SV 07 ElversbergBundesliga1X21Model probability 41%732.35ens_v0.3WINMQ-000733.v4
06 Oct, 15:15SC Paderborn 07 v StuttgartBundesliga1X22Model probability 38%721.58ens_v0.3WINMQ-000732
10 Oct, 12:10Mainz v LeverkusenBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 62%791.54ens_v0.3WINMQ-000730.v2
06 Oct, 15:15Mainz v LeverkusenBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 66%75—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000731
10 Oct, 09:11Hoffenheim v HamburgBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 64%85—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000736.v6
06 Oct, 06:06Dortmund v Werder BremenBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000715
09 Oct, 18:09Dortmund v Werder BremenBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 59%961.48ens_v0.3WINMQ-000714.v3
20 Sept, 12:09Leverkusen v RB LeipzigBundesliga1X21Model probability 56%961.86ens_v0.3WINMQ-000683.v3
15 Sept, 18:08Hamburg v FC KolnBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 62%701.59ens_v0.3WINMQ-000600
15 Sept, 18:08Hamburg v FC KolnBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 65%70—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000601
14 Sept, 21:11Bayern Munich v Union BerlinBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 79%921.14ens_v0.3WINMQ-000573
19 Sept, 12:11M'gladbach v MainzBundesliga1X22Model probability 49%952.13ens_v0.3WINMQ-000605.v2
15 Sept, 18:08M'gladbach v MainzBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 61%87—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000607
19 Sept, 09:10M'gladbach v MainzBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 58%921.46ens_v0.3WINMQ-000606.v2
19 Sept, 14:07Stuttgart v DortmundBundesliga1X22Model probability 46%722.66ens_v0.3WINMQ-000627.v4
15 Sept, 18:08Werder Bremen v AugsburgBundesliga1X21Model probability 40%932.31ens_v0.3WINMQ-000608
15 Sept, 18:08Werder Bremen v AugsburgBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 57%931.46ens_v0.3WINMQ-000609
15 Sept, 18:08Werder Bremen v AugsburgBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 61%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000610
15 Sept, 18:08Ein Frankfurt v FreiburgBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 67%75—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000604
15 Sept, 18:08Ein Frankfurt v FreiburgBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 63%751.47ens_v0.3WINMQ-000603
14 Sept, 21:11Bayern Munich v Union BerlinBundesliga1X21Model probability 81%921.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000572
12 Sept, 12:09Augsburg v LeverkusenBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 64%781.35ens_v0.3WINMQ-000405.v2
08 Sept, 18:06FC Koln v Werder BremenBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 63%89—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000441
08 Sept, 18:06Augsburg v LeverkusenBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 67%75—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000406
08 Sept, 18:06Mainz v Ein FrankfurtBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 62%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000409
12 Sept, 09:13Mainz v Ein FrankfurtBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 62%921.42ens_v0.3WINMQ-000408.v2
08 Sept, 18:06Freiburg v M'gladbachBundesliga1X21Model probability 57%921.70ens_v0.3WINMQ-000410
12 Sept, 12:09Freiburg v M'gladbachBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 60%961.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000411.v2
10 Sept, 06:08Hoffenheim v StuttgartBundesliga1X21Model probability 41%892.31ens_v0.3WINMQ-000413.v3
08 Sept, 18:06Hoffenheim v StuttgartBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 74%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000415
12 Sept, 09:13Hoffenheim v StuttgartBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 72%891.29ens_v0.3WINMQ-000414.v3
08 Sept, 18:06Dortmund v SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga1X21Model probability 67%711.24ens_v0.3WINMQ-000416
12 Sept, 09:13RB Leipzig v HamburgBundesliga1X21Model probability 70%861.35ens_v0.3WINMQ-000475.v3
13 Sept, 09:14RB Leipzig v HamburgBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 67%861.29ens_v0.3WINMQ-000476.v3
12 Sept, 06:09SV 07 Elversberg v Bayern MunichBundesliga1X22Model probability 59%721.16ens_v0.3WINMQ-000485.v2
06 Sept, 06:06Hamburg v MainzBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%871.80ens_v0.3WINMQ-000310.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Ein Frankfurt v AugsburgBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 65%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000323
06 Sept, 14:06Ein Frankfurt v AugsburgBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 64%931.37ens_v0.3WINMQ-000322.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Hoffenheim v DortmundBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 64%84—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000252
01 Sept, 09:58Werder Bremen v RB LeipzigBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 61%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000255
05 Sept, 06:06Werder Bremen v RB LeipzigBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 58%911.42ens_v0.3WINMQ-000254.v2
05 Sept, 06:06Hoffenheim v DortmundBundesliga1X22Model probability 48%852.43ens_v0.3WINMQ-000250.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Hoffenheim v DortmundBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 62%841.45ens_v0.3WINMQ-000251
05 Sept, 12:07Leverkusen v Union BerlinBundesliga1X21Model probability 61%961.38ens_v0.3WINMQ-000256.v3
01 Sept, 09:58Leverkusen v Union BerlinBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 65%911.42ens_v0.3WINMQ-000257
01 Sept, 09:58Stuttgart v FC KolnBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 70%88—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000231
04 Sept, 15:12Stuttgart v FC KolnBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 73%881.32ens_v0.3WINMQ-000230.v2
04 Sept, 15:12Stuttgart v FC KolnBundesliga1X21Model probability 60%881.45ens_v0.3WINMQ-000229.v2
30 Aug, 12:29Augsburg v FC Schalke 04Bundesliga1X21Model probability 46%712.21ens_v0.3WINMQ-000143.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
30 Aug, 05:54Freiburg v Werder BremenBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 56%841.74ens_v0.1WINMQ-000193.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
30 Aug, 05:54Freiburg v Werder BremenBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%84—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000194.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9
30 Aug, 12:29Freiburg v Werder BremenBundesliga1X21Model probability 52%951.83ens_v0.3WINMQ-000137.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12.v13
28 Aug, 08:56RB Leipzig v M'gladbachBundesliga1X21Model probability 58%851.55ens_v0.1WINMQ-000056.v2
29 Aug, 09:32Dortmund v HamburgBundesliga1X21Model probability 67%821.36ens_v0.1WINMQ-000087.v2.v3
28 Aug, 08:56RB Leipzig v M'gladbachBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 59%851.46ens_v0.1WINMQ-000057.v2
28 Aug, 08:56FC Koln v HoffenheimBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 67%821.53ens_v0.1WINMQ-000065.v2
28 Aug, 08:42FC Koln v HoffenheimBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 68%79—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000066
28 Aug, 08:42Bayern Munich v StuttgartBundesligaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 74%83—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000040
28 Aug, 08:56Bayern Munich v StuttgartBundesligaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 82%861.18ens_v0.1WINMQ-000039.v2
28 Aug, 08:56Bayern Munich v StuttgartBundesliga1X21Model probability 72%861.22ens_v0.1WINMQ-000038.v2