WinPIQKnow Before You Pick.
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🇺🇸 Showing content for United States · by location · Change21+ only · analysis and probability estimates, not financial advice · help: 1-800-GAMBLER

Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

759
settled signals
442
wins
317
losses
58.2%
hit rate
2.28
avg. price at lock
-0.6%
ROI, 1 unit each · 525 of 759 priced
85
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
312
predictions / signals
759 / not counted
priced / unpriced
525 / 234
as of
2026-10-14 13:02Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 07:54Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
0.0%
24 predictions · avg 38.0%
rated 40–50%
0.0%
70 predictions · avg 44.3%
rated 50–60%
0.0%
148 predictions · avg 53.9%
rated 60–70%
0.0%
53 predictions · avg 64.2%
rated 70–80%
0.0%
4 predictions · avg 73.9%
rated 80–100%
0.0%
1 predictions · avg 81.3%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 103 shown

publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
09 Oct, 18:09Lens v Sporting Clube de PortugalUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 71%65—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000852
11 Oct, 21:13Inter v Club Brugge KVUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 81%681.25ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000854.v2
08 Oct, 21:14Levante v SevillaLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%902.72ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000849
07 Oct, 21:13Santander v ValenciaLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%752.29ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000841
11 Oct, 12:12Troyes v MarseilleLigue 11X21Model probability 40%553.44ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000837.v5
09 Oct, 00:09Hull v EvertonPremier League1X21Model probability 42%753.67ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000807.v5
09 Oct, 12:09Elche v CeltaLa Liga1X21Model probability 40%902.79ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000804.v3
10 Oct, 21:12Como v RomaSerie A1X21Model probability 40%762.51ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000801.v5
08 Oct, 15:10Monaco v ToulouseLigue 11X21Model probability 42%901.58ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000795.v6
10 Oct, 12:10Man United v TottenhamPremier League1X21Model probability 69%901.72ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000767.v10
08 Oct, 03:09Maccabi Tel Aviv v Bnei SakhninIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 78%841.14ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000783.v2
08 Oct, 03:09Hapoel Petah Tikva v Maccabi NetanyaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 35%664.00ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000773.v2
10 Oct, 11:08Mainz v LeverkusenBundesliga1X21Model probability 40%763.01ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000729.v9
08 Oct, 21:14Hoffenheim v HamburgBundesliga1X21Model probability 58%851.42ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000734.v6
09 Oct, 09:11Dortmund v Werder BremenBundesliga1X21Model probability 70%921.34ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000713.v4
09 Oct, 15:13Malaga v EspanolLa Liga1X21Model probability 36%602.90ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000719.v11
19 Sept, 09:10Fiorentina v NapoliSerie A1X21Model probability 41%753.23ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000663.v2
20 Sept, 13:07FC Schalke 04 v SV 07 ElversbergBundesliga1X21Model probability 43%711.93ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000692.v3
20 Sept, 06:09Bournemouth v LiverpoolPremier League1X21Model probability 42%933.14ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000680.v2
16 Sept, 21:11Valencia v SociedadLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%932.76ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000710
20 Sept, 06:09Leeds v Crystal PalacePremier League1X21Model probability 58%891.70ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000674.v3
15 Sept, 18:08Nott'm Forest v CoventryPremier League1X21Model probability 65%711.65ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000630
19 Sept, 09:06Tottenham v Aston VillaPremier League1X21Model probability 40%751.94ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000587.v4
17 Sept, 12:40Lillestrom v TorreenseUEFA Europa League1X21Model probability 65%701.62ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000570.v5
16 Sept, 18:09Maccabi Petah Tikva v Hapoel KatamonIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 49%722.20ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000642.v3
17 Sept, 12:40Celtic v Ferencvarosi TCUEFA Europa League1X21Model probability 48%691.70ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000564.v3
17 Sept, 12:40Plzen v Union St. GilloiseUEFA Europa League1X21Model probability 73%712.50ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000562.v3
17 Sept, 12:40Levski Sofia v Red Bull SalzburgUEFA Europa League1X21Model probability 49%713.30ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000557.v3
17 Sept, 12:40Sociedad v BournemouthUEFA Europa League1X21Model probability 41%763.10ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000567.v6
16 Sept, 00:08Roma v InterSerie A1X21Model probability 41%762.67ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000624.v2
16 Sept, 03:14Espanol v ElcheLa Liga1X21Model probability 48%901.85ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000581.v2
19 Sept, 09:06Osasuna v VallecanoLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%942.54ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000590.v3
19 Sept, 09:10Bologna v TorinoSerie A1X21Model probability 49%941.94ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000593.v3
16 Sept, 18:09Ath Bilbao v AlavesLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%941.64ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000618.v2
16 Sept, 21:11Udinese v CagliariSerie A1X21Model probability 36%752.23ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000596.v4
15 Sept, 16:05Alaves v ValenciaLa Liga1X21Model probability 61%941.64ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000534.v8
15 Sept, 16:02Ironi Tiberias v Hapoel KatamonIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 49%832.62ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000519.v4
13 Sept, 06:08Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 42%833.40ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000516.v2
10 Sept, 21:14Villarreal v BetisLa Liga1X21Model probability 51%911.90ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000528
12 Sept, 12:09Lorient v ToulouseLigue 11X21Model probability 53%892.41ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000448.v3
12 Sept, 06:09Osasuna v EspanolLa Liga1X21Model probability 48%932.21ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000430.v2
08 Sept, 18:06Tottenham v EvertonPremier League1X21Model probability 36%762.02ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000442
08 Sept, 18:06Crystal Palace v IpswichPremier League1X21Model probability 49%851.88ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000417
08 Sept, 18:06Strasbourg v MonacoLigue 11X21Model probability 43%923.11ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000433
12 Sept, 18:09Paris FC v LyonLigue 11X21Model probability 45%932.50ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000460.v2
13 Sept, 12:09Getafe v La CorunaLa Liga1X21Model probability 35%552.60ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000489.v3
12 Sept, 06:09Man United v Man CityPremier League1X21Model probability 40%913.15ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000482.v2
09 Sept, 12:06Celta v MalagaLa Liga1X21Model probability 54%721.70ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000469
12 Sept, 03:10Le Havre v AngersLigue 11X21Model probability 44%932.62ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000457.v3
12 Sept, 09:13Atalanta v CagliariSerie A1X21Model probability 47%931.69ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000451.v4
09 Sept, 09:16Aston Villa v Nott'm ForestPremier League1X21Model probability 41%932.18ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000427.v2
13 Sept, 09:14Sociedad v Ath MadridLa Liga1X21Model probability 40%923.24ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000496.v4
08 Sept, 18:06Ath Bilbao v ElcheLa Liga1X21Model probability 52%911.43ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000445
10 Sept, 18:08Bournemouth v BrentfordPremier League1X21Model probability 48%932.46ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000423.v2
08 Sept, 18:06FC Koln v Werder BremenBundesliga1X21Model probability 49%892.09ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000439
12 Sept, 09:13Liverpool v FulhamPremier League1X21Model probability 55%931.51ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000420.v2
08 Sept, 18:06Chelsea v HullPremier League1X21Model probability 44%711.23ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000426
12 Sept, 09:13Mainz v Ein FrankfurtBundesliga1X21Model probability 55%921.80ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000407.v2
11 Sept, 09:10Union Berlin v FC Schalke 04Bundesliga1X21Model probability 51%712.39ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000392.v2
10 Sept, 06:08PSV v FK Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 53%65—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000385.v3
10 Sept, 17:05SK Slavia Praha v LensUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 42%532.62ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000391.v5
08 Sept, 09:07Club Brugge KV v Aston VillaUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 40%532.50ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000362.v4
08 Sept, 12:07Lille v BetisUEFA Champions League1X21Model probability 51%892.15ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000371.v4
07 Sept, 16:03Getafe v CeltaLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%942.60ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000347.v3
05 Sept, 03:36Hapoel Beer Sheva v Maccabi Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 50%842.30ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000353.v3
01 Sept, 09:58Udinese v LazioSerie A1X21Model probability 41%812.85ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000356
07 Sept, 17:03Elche v SociedadLa Liga1X21Model probability 41%713.44ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000359.v4
07 Sept, 03:11Maccabi Netanya v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 48%831.85ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000343.v3
06 Sept, 06:06Juventus v MilanSerie A1X21Model probability 52%932.11ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000334.v3
06 Sept, 14:06Ein Frankfurt v AugsburgBundesliga1X21Model probability 47%931.85ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000321.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Bologna v SassuoloSerie A1X21Model probability 42%871.94ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000324
04 Sept, 00:25Malaga v LevanteLa Liga1X21Model probability 38%712.37ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000330.v2
06 Sept, 06:06Parma v MonzaSerie A1X21Model probability 42%692.75ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000305.v3
01 Sept, 09:58Hamburg v MainzBundesliga1X21Model probability 40%762.81ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000309
06 Sept, 10:04Troyes v StrasbourgLigue 11X21Model probability 41%522.89ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000304.v2
03 Sept, 21:39Espanol v SevillaLa Liga1X21Model probability 44%942.27ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000337.v2
06 Sept, 12:13Marseille v Paris FCLigue 11X21Model probability 47%891.90ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000331.v3
05 Sept, 06:06Le Havre v BrestLigue 11X21Model probability 40%912.64ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000293.v2
03 Sept, 16:48Maccabi Petah Tikva v Ironi TiberiasIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 53%712.05ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000289.v3
01 Sept, 09:58M'gladbach v SV 07 ElversbergBundesliga1X21Model probability 45%631.81ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000259
03 Sept, 21:39Newcastle v BournemouthPremier League1X21Model probability 42%942.12ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000244.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Nott'm Forest v TottenhamPremier League1X21Model probability 57%932.51ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000261
05 Sept, 06:06Hull v Aston VillaPremier League1X21Model probability 51%724.19ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000283.v2
05 Sept, 15:06Villarreal v La CorunaLa Liga1X21Model probability 64%711.46ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000300.v2
03 Sept, 16:48Brighton v LeedsPremier League1X21Model probability 53%901.97ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000265.v2
05 Sept, 06:06Brentford v SunderlandPremier League1X21Model probability 55%901.73ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000268.v2
05 Sept, 10:29Fulham v Crystal PalacePremier League1X21Model probability 53%932.17ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000271.v3
01 Sept, 09:58Nice v Le MansLigue 11X21Model probability 42%531.76ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000296
05 Sept, 10:29Lens v LorientLigue 11X21Model probability 59%881.51ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000277.v3
05 Sept, 12:07Fiorentina v TorinoSerie A1X21Model probability 42%962.03ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000247.v2
05 Sept, 03:36SC Paderborn 07 v FreiburgBundesliga1X21Model probability 43%703.58ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000260.v2
04 Sept, 03:53Paris SG v MonacoLigue 11X21Model probability 61%921.36ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000241.v2
03 Sept, 16:48Sociedad v CeltaLa Liga1X21Model probability 48%921.85ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000223.v3
02 Sept, 00:10Hapoel Beer Sheva v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier League1X21Model probability 62%821.38ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000214.v2
30 Aug, 17:13Celta v Ath BilbaoLa Liga1X21Model probability 53%932.71ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12.v13.v14
30 Aug, 16:02Napoli v ComoSerie A1X21Model probability 42%922.51ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000144.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12
30 Aug, 12:29Leeds v BrentfordPremier League1X21Model probability 40%932.85ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000131.v2.v3
29 Aug, 18:15Brest v ToulouseLigue 11X21Model probability 41%872.51ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000113.v2.v3.v4
29 Aug, 18:15Lorient v TroyesLigue 11X21Model probability 45%671.95ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000108.v2.v3.v4
29 Aug, 18:15Lyon v Le HavreLigue 11X21Model probability 57%851.45ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000109.v2.v3.v4
29 Aug, 18:15Auxerre v AngersLigue 11X21Model probability 52%872.12ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000112.v2.v3.v4.v5
28 Aug, 08:42Mainz v SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga1X21Model probability 52%64—ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000059
28 Aug, 08:56Fiorentina v FrosinoneSerie A1X21Model probability 40%661.62ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000086.v2