Verified record
Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.
80
settled signals
50
wins
30
losses
62.5%
hit rate
1.81
avg. price at lock
-3.3%
ROI, 1 unit each · 56 of 80 priced
79
avg. confidence
What these numbers describe
- period
- 2026-08-30 → 2026-10-13
- cohort
- live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
- unique fixtures
- 32
- predictions / signals
- 80 / not counted
- priced / unpriced
- 56 / 24
- as of
- 2026-10-14 12:08Z
- ledger watermark
- 2026-10-14 07:54Z
- metric / record version
- perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.
Settled between 2026-08-30 and 2026-10-13 · every figure here is Israeli Premier League only
Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Probability bucket performance
Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.
rated 30–40%
33.3%
3 predictions · avg 37.1%
rated 40–50%
27.3%
11 predictions · avg 46.7%
rated 50–60%
76.2%
42 predictions · avg 53.7%
rated 60–70%
55.0%
20 predictions · avg 64.5%
rated 70–80%
75.0%
4 predictions · avg 73.3%
When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?
Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed
By confidence
| confidence | n | hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| <50 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 50-69 | 62 | 48.4% |
| 70-84 | 213 | 61.0% |
| 85+ | 483 | 58.2% |
Show me the receipts 80 shown
32 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.
| published | match | market | pick | prob. | conf. | price at lock | model | result | proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 |  Hapoel Katamon v  Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 68% | 77 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000772
|
| 07 Oct, 12:08 | Hapoel Katamon v Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 49% | 81 | 1.57 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000770.v2
|
| 10 Oct, 09:11 | Hapoel Katamon v Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 66% | 80 | 1.57 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000771.v3
|
| 09 Oct, 03:12 |  Hapoel Ramat Gan v  Beitar JerusalemIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 54% | 70 | 1.50 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000776.v3
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 |  Maccabi Tel Aviv v  Bnei SakhninIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 52% | 84 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000785
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 | Maccabi Tel Aviv v Bnei SakhninIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 63% | 84 | 1.48 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000784
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 |  Hapoel Haifa v  Maccabi Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 51% | 72 | 1.90 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000786
|
| 08 Oct, 03:09 |  Hapoel Petah Tikva v  Maccabi NetanyaIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 35% | 66 | 4.00 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000773.v2
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 | Hapoel Petah Tikva v Maccabi NetanyaIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 51% | 66 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000775
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 | Hapoel Petah Tikva v Maccabi NetanyaIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 56% | 66 | 2.10 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000774
|
| 08 Oct, 15:10 |  Ironi Kiryat Shmona v  Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 53% | 80 | 1.48 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000777.v3
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 53% | 80 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000779
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 50% | 80 | 2.05 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000778
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 |  Ironi Tiberias v  Hapoel Beer ShevaIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 49% | 83 | 1.36 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000780
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 | Ironi Tiberias v Hapoel Beer ShevaIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 63% | 83 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000782
|
| 06 Oct, 18:06 | Ironi Tiberias v Hapoel Beer ShevaIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 61% | 83 | 1.53 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000781
|
| 08 Oct, 03:09 | Maccabi Tel Aviv v Bnei SakhninIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 78% | 84 | 1.14 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000783.v2
|
| 15 Sept, 18:08 | Beitar Jerusalem v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 57% | 81 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000637
|
| 17 Sept, 12:40 | Beitar Jerusalem v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 54% | 83 | 1.53 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000636.v3
|
| 16 Sept, 06:09 | Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 62% | 84 | 1.40 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000643.v2
|
| 17 Sept, 12:40 | Beitar Jerusalem v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 53% | 83 | 1.60 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000635.v3
|
| 16 Sept, 18:09 | Bnei Sakhnin v Hapoel Ramat GanIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 39% | 54 | 2.70 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000641.v3
|
| 16 Sept, 06:09 | Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 58% | 84 | 2.08 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000644.v2
|
| 15 Sept, 18:08 | Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 58% | 82 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000645
|
| 16 Sept, 18:09 | Maccabi Petah Tikva v Hapoel KatamonIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 49% | 72 | 2.20 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000642.v3
|
| 19 Sept, 15:10 | Maccabi Haifa v Ironi TiberiasIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 53% | 83 | 1.22 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000638.v4
|
| 15 Sept, 18:08 | Maccabi Haifa v Ironi TiberiasIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 62% | 80 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000640
|
| 16 Sept, 18:09 | Maccabi Haifa v Ironi TiberiasIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 61% | 83 | 1.53 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000639.v3
|
| 16 Sept, 18:09 | Maccabi Netanya v Maccabi Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 54% | 84 | 1.57 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000646.v2
|
| 15 Sept, 18:08 | Maccabi Netanya v Maccabi Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 69% | 82 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000648
|
| 16 Sept, 18:09 | Maccabi Netanya v Maccabi Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 68% | 84 | 1.48 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000647.v2
|
| 16 Sept, 18:09 | Hapoel Beer Sheva v Ironi Kiryat ShmonaIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 64% | 84 | 1.36 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000632.v3
|
| 16 Sept, 06:09 | Hapoel Beer Sheva v Ironi Kiryat ShmonaIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 64% | 79 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000634.v2
|
| 19 Sept, 09:10 | Hapoel Beer Sheva v Ironi Kiryat ShmonaIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 69% | 84 | 1.57 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000633.v3
|
| 15 Sept, 12:14 | Beitar Jerusalem v Maccabi Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 53% | 71 | 1.50 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000508.v3
|
| 14 Sept, 06:11 | Ironi Tiberias v Hapoel KatamonIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 53% | 83 | 2.20 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000520.v2
|
| 10 Sept, 18:08 | Ironi Tiberias v Hapoel KatamonIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 56% | 79 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000521
|
| 15 Sept, 16:02 | Ironi Tiberias v Hapoel KatamonIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 49% | 83 | 2.62 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000519.v4
|
| 13 Sept, 06:08 | Hapoel Haifa v Bnei SakhninIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 65% | 83 | 1.75 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000510.v2
|
| 13 Sept, 12:09 | Hapoel Ramat Gan v Maccabi NetanyaIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 48% | 67 | 1.57 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000515.v2
|
| 14 Sept, 06:11 | Hapoel Haifa v Bnei SakhninIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 54% | 84 | 1.80 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000509.v3
|
| 10 Sept, 18:08 | Hapoel Haifa v Bnei SakhninIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 63% | 80 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000511
|
| 13 Sept, 06:08 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 83 | 3.40 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000516.v2
|
| 10 Sept, 18:08 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 67% | 81 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000518
|
| 13 Sept, 06:08 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 63% | 83 | 1.70 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000517.v2
|
| 13 Sept, 06:08 | Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 42% | 83 | 2.10 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000505.v2
|
| 10 Sept, 18:08 | Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 59% | 80 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000507
|
| 14 Sept, 12:09 | Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 54% | 84 | 1.57 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000506.v6
|
| 12 Sept, 06:09 | Hapoel Petah Tikva v Hapoel Beer ShevaIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 55% | 84 | 1.57 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000513.v2
|
| 12 Sept, 06:09 | Hapoel Petah Tikva v Hapoel Beer ShevaIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 54% | 84 | 1.44 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000512.v2
|
| 10 Sept, 18:08 | Hapoel Petah Tikva v Hapoel Beer ShevaIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 58% | 81 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000514
|
| 06 Sept, 18:06 | Bnei Sakhnin v Beitar JerusalemIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 54% | 82 | 1.50 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000350.v4
|
| 05 Sept, 03:36 | Bnei Sakhnin v Beitar JerusalemIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 52% | 82 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000352.v2
|
| 05 Sept, 03:36 | Bnei Sakhnin v Beitar JerusalemIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 51% | 82 | 2.15 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000351.v3
|
| 01 Sept, 09:58 | Hapoel Beer Sheva v Maccabi Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 70% | 80 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000355
|
| 05 Sept, 03:36 | Hapoel Beer Sheva v Maccabi Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 50% | 84 | 2.30 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000353.v3
|
| 05 Sept, 10:29 | Hapoel Beer Sheva v Maccabi Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 73% | 84 | 1.57 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000354.v3
|
| 07 Sept, 16:32 | Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Ramat GanIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 56% | 69 | 1.33 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000346.v4
|
| 07 Sept, 03:11 | Maccabi Netanya v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 48% | 83 | 1.85 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000343.v3
|
| 06 Sept, 18:06 | Maccabi Netanya v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 51% | 83 | 1.65 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000344.v4
|
| 04 Sept, 12:26 | Maccabi Netanya v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 55% | 80 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000345.v2
|
| 01 Sept, 09:58 | Hapoel Katamon v Ironi Kiryat ShmonaIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 51% | 76 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000288
|
| 03 Sept, 16:48 | Maccabi Petah Tikva v Ironi TiberiasIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 53% | 71 | 2.05 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000289.v3
|
| 02 Sept, 18:07 | Maccabi Haifa v Hapoel Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 53% | 85 | 1.50 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000290.v2
|
| 02 Sept, 18:07 | Maccabi Haifa v Hapoel Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 55% | 85 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000292.v2
|
| 03 Sept, 16:48 | Maccabi Haifa v Hapoel Petah TikvaIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 54% | 85 | 1.57 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000291.v3
|
| 03 Sept, 16:48 | Hapoel Katamon v Ironi Kiryat ShmonaIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 53% | 81 | 1.67 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000287.v3
|
| 02 Sept, 18:07 | Hapoel Katamon v Ironi Kiryat ShmonaIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 48% | 81 | 2.62 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000286.v2
|
| 01 Sept, 09:40 | Hapoel Tel Aviv v Beitar JerusalemIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 53% | 75 | — | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000219
|
| 03 Sept, 16:48 | Hapoel Tel Aviv v Beitar JerusalemIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 53% | 65 | 2.10 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000218.v3
|
| 03 Sept, 16:48 | Hapoel Tel Aviv v Beitar JerusalemIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 37% | 65 | 2.30 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000217.v4
|
| 01 Sept, 09:40 | Hapoel Beer Sheva v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 52% | 82 | — | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000216.v2
|
| 02 Sept, 00:10 | Hapoel Beer Sheva v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 62% | 82 | 1.38 | ens_v0.3 | LOSS | MQ-000214.v2
|
| 02 Sept, 00:10 | Hapoel Beer Sheva v Hapoel HaifaIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 53% | 82 | 1.53 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000215.v3
|
| 30 Aug, 05:54 | Maccabi Tel Aviv v Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Model probability 72% | 81 | 1.48 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000212.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8
|
| 30 Aug, 12:29 | Maccabi Tel Aviv v Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 1 | Model probability 53% | 84 | 1.67 | ens_v0.3 | WIN | MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
Open the sealed proof · MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10 |
| 30 Aug, 05:54 | Maccabi Tel Aviv v Maccabi HaifaIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | Yes | Model probability 70% | 81 | — | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000213.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7
|
| 30 Aug, 05:54 | Hapoel Haifa v Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League | Both teams to score | No | Model probability 53% | 80 | — | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000210.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9
|
| 30 Aug, 00:09 | Hapoel Haifa v Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League | 1X2 | 2 | Model probability 41% | 61 | 1.67 | ens_v0.1 | LOSS | MQ-000202.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9
|
| 30 Aug, 05:54 | Hapoel Haifa v Hapoel Tel AvivIsraeli Premier League | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Model probability 60% | 80 | 2.08 | ens_v0.1 | WIN | MQ-000209.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
Open the sealed proof · MQ-000209.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10 |