WinPIQKnow Before You Pick.
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🇺🇸 Showing content for United States · by location · Change21+ only · analysis and probability estimates, not financial advice · help: 1-800-GAMBLER

Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

130
settled signals
74
wins
56
losses
56.9%
hit rate
1.67
avg. price at lock
-9.3%
ROI, 1 unit each · 92 of 130 priced
87
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
54
predictions / signals
130 / not counted
priced / unpriced
92 / 38
as of
2026-10-14 13:02Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 07:54Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13 · every figure here is La Liga only

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
100.0%
3 predictions · avg 38.9%
rated 40–50%
100.0%
9 predictions · avg 44.3%
rated 50–60%
100.0%
42 predictions · avg 55.0%
rated 60–70%
100.0%
17 predictions · avg 62.9%
rated 70–80%
100.0%
3 predictions · avg 74.6%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 74 shown

Last 20Last 50Last 100All·1/X/2HomeDrawAway·Any confidence≥70≥80·All resultsWinsLossesPushesVoided

54 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.

publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
12 Oct, 18:09Levante v SevillaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%932.14ens_v0.3WINMQ-000850.v2
08 Oct, 21:14Levante v SevillaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 58%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000851
10 Oct, 00:09Sociedad v La CorunaLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%741.60ens_v0.3WINMQ-000823.v5
11 Oct, 12:12Betis v OsasunaLa Liga1X21Model probability 53%921.49ens_v0.3WINMQ-000834.v2
07 Oct, 18:09Betis v OsasunaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000836
11 Oct, 12:12Betis v OsasunaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 51%921.65ens_v0.3WINMQ-000835.v2
10 Oct, 09:11Real Madrid v VillarrealLa Liga1X21Model probability 56%931.36ens_v0.3WINMQ-000798.v5
10 Oct, 00:09Barcelona v GetafeLa Liga1X21Model probability 74%931.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000761.v9
10 Oct, 00:09Barcelona v GetafeLa LigaBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 57%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000763.v3
10 Oct, 12:10Barcelona v GetafeLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 52%931.26ens_v0.3WINMQ-000762.v9
08 Oct, 15:10Alaves v Ath MadridLa Liga1X22Model probability 39%931.80ens_v0.3WINMQ-000752.v4
06 Oct, 15:15Alaves v Ath MadridLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 55%74—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000754
20 Sept, 09:10Ath Madrid v Real MadridLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 58%901.55ens_v0.3WINMQ-000687.v2
16 Sept, 15:15Ath Madrid v Real MadridLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 60%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000688
19 Sept, 09:10Getafe v MalagaLa Liga1X21Model probability 51%742.04ens_v0.3WINMQ-000666.v2
16 Sept, 21:11Valencia v SociedadLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 54%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000712
20 Sept, 06:09Villarreal v LevanteLa Liga1X21Model probability 57%901.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000700.v4
20 Sept, 06:09Villarreal v LevanteLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 65%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000702.v2
19 Sept, 09:10Villarreal v LevanteLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 64%901.47ens_v0.3WINMQ-000701.v2
17 Sept, 14:06Betis v GetafeLa Liga1X21Model probability 56%941.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000559.v5
17 Sept, 14:06Betis v GetafeLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 60%941.83ens_v0.3WINMQ-000560.v5
13 Sept, 21:12Malaga v VillarrealLa Liga1X22Model probability 48%681.98ens_v0.3WINMQ-000571
16 Sept, 06:09Espanol v ElcheLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 58%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000583.v2
16 Sept, 06:09Espanol v ElcheLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 54%901.89ens_v0.3WINMQ-000582.v2
16 Sept, 06:09Osasuna v VallecanoLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%94—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000592.v2
19 Sept, 12:11Sevilla v BarcelonaLa Liga1X22Model probability 59%911.25ens_v0.3WINMQ-000660.v4
19 Sept, 12:11Sevilla v BarcelonaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000662.v2
19 Sept, 09:10Sevilla v BarcelonaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 60%911.31ens_v0.3WINMQ-000661.v3
19 Sept, 12:11Celta v SantanderLa Liga1X21Model probability 38%571.79ens_v0.3WINMQ-000631.v4
16 Sept, 15:15Betis v GetafeLa LigaBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 58%94—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000561.v2
15 Sept, 00:08Elche v Real MadridLa Liga1X22Model probability 54%911.22ens_v0.3WINMQ-000537.v3
15 Sept, 12:14Vallecano v EspanolLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%922.34ens_v0.3WINMQ-000531.v6
14 Sept, 06:11Vallecano v EspanolLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 54%92—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000533.v2
13 Sept, 12:09Elche v Real MadridLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 63%89—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000539.v5
15 Sept, 06:08Elche v Real MadridLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 62%911.29ens_v0.3WINMQ-000538.v3
14 Sept, 18:08Villarreal v BetisLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 61%961.45ens_v0.3WINMQ-000529.v3
10 Sept, 21:14Villarreal v BetisLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 62%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000530
12 Sept, 12:09Real Madrid v VallecanoLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 55%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000468.v8
08 Sept, 18:06Ath Bilbao v ElcheLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000447
08 Sept, 18:06Osasuna v EspanolLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 53%931.66ens_v0.3WINMQ-000431
12 Sept, 12:09Real Madrid v VallecanoLa Liga1X21Model probability 70%911.13ens_v0.3WINMQ-000466.v11
09 Sept, 09:16Real Madrid v VallecanoLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 60%921.29ens_v0.3WINMQ-000467
12 Sept, 09:04Santander v AlavesLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%712.58ens_v0.3WINMQ-000402.v2
12 Sept, 21:14Sociedad v Ath MadridLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 56%921.61ens_v0.3WINMQ-000497.v3
10 Sept, 06:08Levante v BarcelonaLa Liga1X22Model probability 59%881.16ens_v0.3WINMQ-000478.v2
09 Sept, 18:07Levante v BarcelonaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 61%89—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000480
13 Sept, 09:14Levante v BarcelonaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 62%881.24ens_v0.3WINMQ-000479.v2
11 Sept, 09:10Sevilla v ValenciaLa Liga1X21Model probability 44%941.98ens_v0.3WINMQ-000399.v3
07 Sept, 19:06Sevilla v ValenciaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 53%921.58ens_v0.3WINMQ-000400
04 Sept, 12:26Elche v SociedadLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 62%71—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000361.v2
07 Sept, 19:06Elche v SociedadLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 58%741.70ens_v0.3WINMQ-000360.v4
07 Sept, 16:03Getafe v CeltaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 69%941.32ens_v0.3WINMQ-000348.v4
06 Sept, 12:13Espanol v SevillaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 53%941.68ens_v0.3WINMQ-000338.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Alaves v OsasunaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 50%92—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000329
03 Sept, 16:48Alaves v OsasunaLa Liga1X21Model probability 51%932.28ens_v0.3WINMQ-000327.v2
06 Sept, 06:06Valencia v BarcelonaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 57%921.35ens_v0.3WINMQ-000313.v2
03 Sept, 16:48Valencia v BarcelonaLa Liga1X22Model probability 55%921.28ens_v0.3WINMQ-000312.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Espanol v SevillaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 52%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000339
05 Sept, 06:06Vallecano v SantanderLa Liga1X21Model probability 48%722.09ens_v0.3WINMQ-000284.v2
03 Sept, 21:39Ath Bilbao v Ath MadridLa Liga1X21Model probability 40%933.09ens_v0.3WINMQ-000274.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Ath Bilbao v Ath MadridLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 54%841.90ens_v0.3WINMQ-000275
30 Aug, 18:14Barcelona v VallecanoLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 61%921.31ens_v0.3WINMQ-000189.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
30 Aug, 18:14Osasuna v GetafeLa LigaBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 61%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000181.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9
31 Aug, 03:36Osasuna v GetafeLa Liga1X21Model probability 48%922.21ens_v0.3WINMQ-000179.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
30 Aug, 18:14Barcelona v VallecanoLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 51%92—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000190.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9
31 Aug, 03:36Barcelona v VallecanoLa Liga1X21Model probability 76%921.12ens_v0.3WINMQ-000188.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
30 Aug, 18:14Osasuna v GetafeLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 67%931.38ens_v0.3WINMQ-000180.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
30 Aug, 12:29La Coruna v ValenciaLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%712.58ens_v0.3WINMQ-000151.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12
30 Aug, 12:18Real Madrid v MalagaLa Liga1X21Model probability 74%711.09ens_v0.3WINMQ-000138.v2.v3.v4.v5
29 Aug, 18:15Sevilla v Ath MadridLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 58%69—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000124.v2.v3
29 Aug, 18:15Sevilla v Ath MadridLa Liga1X22Model probability 41%691.92ens_v0.1WINMQ-000122.v2.v3.v4.v5
29 Aug, 18:15Sevilla v Ath MadridLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 55%692.02ens_v0.1WINMQ-000123.v2.v3.v4.v5
28 Aug, 08:42Levante v BetisLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 52%79—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000073
28 Aug, 08:56Santander v ElcheLa Liga1X21Model probability 52%692.07ens_v0.1WINMQ-000037.v2