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🇺🇸 Showing content for United States · by location · Change21+ only · analysis and probability estimates, not financial advice · help: 1-800-GAMBLER

Verified record

Every settled prediction, wins and losses. Each prediction is sealed before kick-off in a table the database cannot update or delete; results are graded from the official score, and a correction is logged before it is applied.

130
settled signals
74
wins
56
losses
56.9%
hit rate
1.84
avg. price at lock
-9.3%
ROI, 1 unit each · 92 of 130 priced
87
avg. confidence

What these numbers describe

period
2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13
cohort
live_record_v1 · cohort_v1
unique fixtures
54
predictions / signals
130 / not counted
priced / unpriced
92 / 38
as of
2026-10-14 14:06Z
ledger watermark
2026-10-14 14:03Z
metric / record version
perf_metrics_v1 · public_record_v1
sealed day 2026-10-13
2956a09201c28a1513389978e78819ca6d2f6a8a214a92744e8c16a71faa5d6c

Save this string. Each day's seal folds in the previous day's, so if any earlier day is ever rewritten, this no longer matches. The seal is our own server clock — it shows the record is unchanged, not when it was published.

Settled between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-13 · every figure here is La Liga only

Every official WinPIQ pick is recorded. Wins and losses.

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Probability bucket performance

Do predictions rated X% actually win X% of the time? Computed from the settled rows below.

rated 30–40%
33.3%
9 predictions · avg 38.1%
rated 40–50%
39.1%
23 predictions · avg 44.2%
rated 50–60%
60.0%
70 predictions · avg 54.4%
rated 60–70%
68.0%
25 predictions · avg 63.0%
rated 70–80%
100.0%
3 predictions · avg 74.6%

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Backtest · 2022/23–2026/277,135 matches
30–40%39% → 38% n=898
40–50%45% → 45% n=2664
50–60%54% → 56% n=2253
60–70%65% → 68% n=919
70–80%75% → 77% n=342
80–90%83% → 84% n=50
90–100%93% → 89% n=9
predicted observed
Live, settled759 matches
30–40%38% → 37% n=41
40–50%44% → 41% n=125
50–60%54% → 61% n=396
60–70%64% → 66% n=164
70–80%73% → 86% n=29
80–90%81% → 75% n=4
predicted observed

By confidence

confidencenhit rate
<501100.0%
50-696248.4%
70-8421361.0%
85+48358.2%

Show me the receipts 120 shown

54 matches graded. Treat every figure here as provisional until the record passes 100.

publishedmatchmarketpickprob.conf.price at lockmodelresultproof
12 Oct, 18:09Levante v SevillaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 53%932.14ens_v0.3WINMQ-000850.v2
08 Oct, 21:14Levante v SevillaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 58%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000851
08 Oct, 21:14Levante v SevillaLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%902.72ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000849
07 Oct, 21:13Santander v ValenciaLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%752.29ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000841
08 Oct, 21:14Elche v CeltaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 51%722.00ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000805.v2
09 Oct, 12:09Elche v CeltaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 56%90—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000806.v2
10 Oct, 00:09Sociedad v La CorunaLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%741.60ens_v0.3WINMQ-000823.v5
09 Oct, 12:09Elche v CeltaLa Liga1X21Model probability 40%902.79ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000804.v3
11 Oct, 12:12Betis v OsasunaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 51%921.65ens_v0.3WINMQ-000835.v2
07 Oct, 18:09Betis v OsasunaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000836
11 Oct, 12:12Betis v OsasunaLa Liga1X21Model probability 53%921.49ens_v0.3WINMQ-000834.v2
06 Oct, 21:13Real Madrid v VillarrealLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 67%92—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000800
08 Oct, 21:14Real Madrid v VillarrealLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 66%921.29ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000799.v2
10 Oct, 09:11Real Madrid v VillarrealLa Liga1X21Model probability 56%931.36ens_v0.3WINMQ-000798.v5
08 Oct, 15:10Alaves v Ath MadridLa Liga1X22Model probability 39%931.80ens_v0.3WINMQ-000752.v4
10 Oct, 12:10Barcelona v GetafeLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 52%931.26ens_v0.3WINMQ-000762.v9
10 Oct, 00:09Barcelona v GetafeLa LigaBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 57%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000763.v3
10 Oct, 00:09Barcelona v GetafeLa Liga1X21Model probability 74%931.08ens_v0.3WINMQ-000761.v9
06 Oct, 15:15Alaves v Ath MadridLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 50%741.98ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000753
06 Oct, 15:15Alaves v Ath MadridLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 55%74—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000754
20 Sept, 06:09Villarreal v LevanteLa Liga1X21Model probability 57%901.50ens_v0.3WINMQ-000700.v4
20 Sept, 09:10Ath Madrid v Real MadridLa Liga1X22Model probability 54%902.07ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000686.v4
16 Sept, 15:15Ath Madrid v Real MadridLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 60%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000688
20 Sept, 09:10Ath Madrid v Real MadridLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 58%901.55ens_v0.3WINMQ-000687.v2
19 Sept, 09:10Getafe v MalagaLa Liga1X21Model probability 51%742.04ens_v0.3WINMQ-000666.v2
16 Sept, 21:11Valencia v SociedadLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%932.76ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000710
16 Sept, 21:11Valencia v SociedadLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 54%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000712
16 Sept, 21:11Valencia v SociedadLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 51%931.89ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000711
20 Sept, 06:09Villarreal v LevanteLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 65%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000702.v2
19 Sept, 09:10Villarreal v LevanteLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 64%901.47ens_v0.3WINMQ-000701.v2
17 Sept, 14:06Betis v GetafeLa Liga1X21Model probability 56%941.57ens_v0.3WINMQ-000559.v5
16 Sept, 18:09Ath Bilbao v AlavesLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%941.64ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000618.v2
19 Sept, 12:11Sevilla v BarcelonaLa Liga1X22Model probability 59%911.25ens_v0.3WINMQ-000660.v4
16 Sept, 06:09Ath Bilbao v AlavesLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 55%93—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000620.v2
19 Sept, 09:10Ath Bilbao v AlavesLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 51%941.86ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000619.v3
19 Sept, 09:10Sevilla v BarcelonaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 60%911.31ens_v0.3WINMQ-000661.v3
19 Sept, 12:11Sevilla v BarcelonaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000662.v2
19 Sept, 09:10Osasuna v VallecanoLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 52%971.95ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000591.v2
16 Sept, 06:09Osasuna v VallecanoLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%94—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000592.v2
19 Sept, 09:06Osasuna v VallecanoLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%942.54ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000590.v3
16 Sept, 06:09Espanol v ElcheLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 54%901.89ens_v0.3WINMQ-000582.v2
16 Sept, 06:09Espanol v ElcheLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 58%90—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000583.v2
16 Sept, 03:14Espanol v ElcheLa Liga1X21Model probability 48%901.85ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000581.v2
17 Sept, 14:06Betis v GetafeLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 60%941.83ens_v0.3WINMQ-000560.v5
16 Sept, 15:15Betis v GetafeLa LigaBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 58%94—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000561.v2
11 Sept, 18:09Vallecano v EspanolLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 52%911.84ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000532
15 Sept, 00:08Elche v Real MadridLa Liga1X22Model probability 54%911.22ens_v0.3WINMQ-000537.v3
15 Sept, 12:14Vallecano v EspanolLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%922.34ens_v0.3WINMQ-000531.v6
13 Sept, 18:08Alaves v ValenciaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 51%94—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000536.v3
15 Sept, 16:05Alaves v ValenciaLa Liga1X21Model probability 61%941.64ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000534.v8
14 Sept, 06:11Vallecano v EspanolLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 54%92—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000533.v2
15 Sept, 06:08Elche v Real MadridLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 62%911.29ens_v0.3WINMQ-000538.v3
13 Sept, 12:09Elche v Real MadridLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 63%89—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000539.v5
15 Sept, 12:14Alaves v ValenciaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 52%932.06ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000535.v3
10 Sept, 21:14Villarreal v BetisLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 62%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000530
10 Sept, 21:14Villarreal v BetisLa Liga1X21Model probability 51%911.90ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000528
14 Sept, 18:08Villarreal v BetisLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 61%961.45ens_v0.3WINMQ-000529.v3
12 Sept, 12:09Real Madrid v VallecanoLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 55%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000468.v8
08 Sept, 18:06Ath Bilbao v ElcheLa Liga1X21Model probability 52%911.43ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000445
08 Sept, 18:06Ath Bilbao v ElcheLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 59%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000447
08 Sept, 18:06Ath Bilbao v ElcheLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 56%911.69ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000446
12 Sept, 06:09Osasuna v EspanolLa Liga1X21Model probability 48%932.21ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000430.v2
08 Sept, 18:06Osasuna v EspanolLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 51%93—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000432
08 Sept, 18:06Osasuna v EspanolLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 53%931.66ens_v0.3WINMQ-000431
12 Sept, 12:09Real Madrid v VallecanoLa Liga1X21Model probability 70%911.13ens_v0.3WINMQ-000466.v11
09 Sept, 09:16Real Madrid v VallecanoLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 60%921.29ens_v0.3WINMQ-000467
12 Sept, 09:04Santander v AlavesLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%712.58ens_v0.3WINMQ-000402.v2
13 Sept, 09:14Sociedad v Ath MadridLa Liga1X21Model probability 40%923.24ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000496.v4
11 Sept, 06:08Sociedad v Ath MadridLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 61%93—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000498.v2
12 Sept, 21:14Sociedad v Ath MadridLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 56%921.61ens_v0.3WINMQ-000497.v3
09 Sept, 12:06Celta v MalagaLa Liga1X21Model probability 54%721.70ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000469
10 Sept, 06:08Levante v BarcelonaLa Liga1X22Model probability 59%881.16ens_v0.3WINMQ-000478.v2
09 Sept, 18:07Levante v BarcelonaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 61%89—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000480
13 Sept, 09:14Levante v BarcelonaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 62%881.24ens_v0.3WINMQ-000479.v2
11 Sept, 09:10Sevilla v ValenciaLa Liga1X21Model probability 44%941.98ens_v0.3WINMQ-000399.v3
07 Sept, 19:06Sevilla v ValenciaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%92—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000401
07 Sept, 19:06Sevilla v ValenciaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 53%921.58ens_v0.3WINMQ-000400
07 Sept, 19:06Elche v SociedadLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 58%741.70ens_v0.3WINMQ-000360.v4
07 Sept, 16:03Getafe v CeltaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 69%941.32ens_v0.3WINMQ-000348.v4
04 Sept, 12:26Getafe v CeltaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 62%93—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000349.v2
07 Sept, 16:03Getafe v CeltaLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%942.60ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000347.v3
07 Sept, 17:03Elche v SociedadLa Liga1X21Model probability 41%713.44ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000359.v4
04 Sept, 12:26Elche v SociedadLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 62%71—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000361.v2
03 Sept, 16:48Alaves v OsasunaLa Liga1X21Model probability 51%932.28ens_v0.3WINMQ-000327.v2
06 Sept, 06:06Valencia v BarcelonaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 57%921.35ens_v0.3WINMQ-000313.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Valencia v BarcelonaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 57%92—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000314
03 Sept, 16:48Valencia v BarcelonaLa Liga1X22Model probability 55%921.28ens_v0.3WINMQ-000312.v2
03 Sept, 21:39Espanol v SevillaLa Liga1X21Model probability 44%942.27ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000337.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Espanol v SevillaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 52%91—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000339
06 Sept, 12:13Espanol v SevillaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 53%941.68ens_v0.3WINMQ-000338.v2
04 Sept, 00:25Malaga v LevanteLa Liga1X21Model probability 38%712.37ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000330.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Alaves v OsasunaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 54%921.55ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000328
01 Sept, 09:58Alaves v OsasunaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 50%92—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000329
01 Sept, 09:58Ath Bilbao v Ath MadridLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 54%841.90ens_v0.3WINMQ-000275
05 Sept, 15:06Villarreal v La CorunaLa Liga1X21Model probability 64%711.46ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000300.v2
03 Sept, 21:39Ath Bilbao v Ath MadridLa Liga1X21Model probability 40%933.09ens_v0.3WINMQ-000274.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Ath Bilbao v Ath MadridLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 58%84—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000276
05 Sept, 06:06Vallecano v SantanderLa Liga1X21Model probability 48%722.09ens_v0.3WINMQ-000284.v2
01 Sept, 09:58Betis v Real MadridLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 57%901.39ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000239
01 Sept, 09:58Betis v Real MadridLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 60%90—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000240
04 Sept, 12:26Betis v Real MadridLa Liga1X22Model probability 48%911.44ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000238.v2
03 Sept, 16:48Sociedad v CeltaLa Liga1X21Model probability 48%921.85ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000223.v3
01 Sept, 09:40Sociedad v CeltaLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 58%93—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000225
01 Sept, 09:40Sociedad v CeltaLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 55%931.86ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000224
30 Aug, 18:14Barcelona v VallecanoLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 51%92—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000190.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9
31 Aug, 03:36Barcelona v VallecanoLa Liga1X21Model probability 76%921.12ens_v0.3WINMQ-000188.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
30 Aug, 18:14Osasuna v GetafeLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 67%931.38ens_v0.3WINMQ-000180.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
30 Aug, 18:14Osasuna v GetafeLa LigaBoth teams to scoreNoModel probability 61%93—ens_v0.3WINMQ-000181.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9
31 Aug, 03:36Osasuna v GetafeLa Liga1X21Model probability 48%922.21ens_v0.3WINMQ-000179.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
30 Aug, 18:14Barcelona v VallecanoLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 61%921.31ens_v0.3WINMQ-000189.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
30 Aug, 17:13Celta v Ath BilbaoLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 50%932.13ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000174.v2.v3
30 Aug, 12:29Celta v Ath BilbaoLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 53%93—ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000175.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
30 Aug, 12:29La Coruna v ValenciaLa Liga1X21Model probability 42%712.58ens_v0.3WINMQ-000151.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12
30 Aug, 17:13Celta v Ath BilbaoLa Liga1X21Model probability 53%932.71ens_v0.3LOSSMQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12.v13.v14
30 Aug, 12:18Real Madrid v MalagaLa Liga1X21Model probability 74%711.09ens_v0.3WINMQ-000138.v2.v3.v4.v5
28 Aug, 08:56Levante v BetisLa Liga1X22Model probability 46%822.19ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000071.v2
28 Aug, 08:42Levante v BetisLa LigaBoth teams to scoreYesModel probability 52%79—ens_v0.1WINMQ-000073
29 Aug, 09:32Levante v BetisLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Under 2.5Model probability 54%821.91ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000072.v2.v3
28 Aug, 08:56Alaves v VillarrealLa LigaOver/Under 2.5Over 2.5Model probability 61%701.80ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000051.v2
28 Aug, 08:56Alaves v VillarrealLa Liga1X22Model probability 41%702.22ens_v0.1LOSSMQ-000050.v2